They do predictions based on historical statistical outcomes, although their models tend to underestimate our chances (they stated as much multiple times, because of the way we play, e.g. we tended to outperform our expected goals rating). They calculate the number of goals they would expect each team to score/concede, and use that to predict individual matches and results. They also do a retrospective measure of these indicators, e.g. producing a scoreline that was “deserved” based on the metrics they used, which measure things like how likely a shot was to produce a goal, or how many passes a team had around the opponent’s box.
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538 has Shitty winning it by 15 points, and us 2 behind Utd in third and 5 ahead of Roman’s mob.
Would rip your hand off for that, right now.
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Third behind the Manchester clubs?
Fuck that!
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I still think it is an absolute coin toss for 2-4, but would take the guaranteed spot right now.
We’ll be too busy celebrating number 7 to worry about where we finished on the table, anyway…
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Oh! I thought 538 was some sort of code for we should have slaughtered them. 
So it’s predicting variables after knowing the the final score. 
I thought it was our new formation on the pitch. 
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Ok, I know I can not count past 4 but if I don’trecognise a number I know it’s got to be more than 4 so if you have more than 4+3 all that’s left is less than 3 (massive experience of football formations tells me this instictively). Though it did cross my mind.
I didn’t know horses have wheels.
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Good one 
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It heavily weights form though so…
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It predicts prior to the game, but it also re-evaluates the game after it’s been played…
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Lucky for us our form is great then!!!
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Doesn’t surprise me our actions in the final third are crap.
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I thought the award of their penalty was even softer the snake dived at the mere draught of fabinho’s leg while Salah was tugged and pulled repeatedly to put him off if he had not gone down do you think he would have got a penalty?
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For me Fabs challenge was a clear pen and Mo’s too but Mo was more theatrical, also for Mo’s most referrees don’t give it, but tugging on someone’s arm puts them off balance to be able to execute a shot or pass
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Both Pens, both you can call soft but both pens.
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Yep agree, can’t blame players for going down easily as they get nothing for staying on their feet, once booked a player for simulation and still awarded him the penalty, it was a foul but he was too theatrical
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Made me snort reading that.
Now I’m just like Rio
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His management has been one of being “bad” can’t think of any job he has had that lasts more than 6 months before it goes sour.
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