Premier League 2023/24 (Part 1)

What sort of numpty would leave it in such a precarious position?

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Hockey (not the slippy type) and rugby have a clock at the very highest level and it works really well.

No one has ever suggested it be used in Sunday League games. They don’t have VAR after all. It will come in soon at top level. I am convinced of that. It has to. The time keeping is too arbitrary when it really doesn’t have to be. It is such a simple fix.

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every game plays by the same rulebook.

https://downloads.theifab.com/downloads/laws-of-the-game-2021-22?l=en

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Clearly robbed at Spurs and we forget it had repercussions too. Red cards for Jones and Jota were suspect and they were suspended to play against Brighton. They fecked us over for more than just the single spurs game. Not having the complete team clearly affected our togetherness and overall team performance

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If VAR can be used at elite level, I think they could have a clock…in any case rules can be changed…it is a very minor tweak.

I don’t see anything there that says the timing can’t be transparent. When the ref stops his watch, the big clock stops. I am sure we have the technology.

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My first match I stopped the watch for every delay, I ended up blowing early as I noted it had gone past 60 minutes.

Second half I only stopped on fouls.

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Same! I was 12. Coaches had a quick word when I blew for halftime

I was 30 :see_no_evil:

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The Holy Fucking Shit It’s Still A Goddamn International Break 1/3 of the Season Award Ceremony

I’m bored because of international football so here’s some summation of current performances in the Premier League.

Team Awards
The Couldn’t Finish Their Dinner Award for Most Wasteful Team
Winner: Chelsea (-5.3 non-penalty xG)
Another season of heavy, heavy spending resulted in Chelsea forgetting to buy that striker they clearly need. Hopes were placed on a half-a-season wonder in Nicolas Jackson who, despite three tap-ins against 9 man Tottenham, has responded by underperforming his xG by 2 goals in 12 games.

Runner-Up: Brentford (-4.8 non-penalty xG)
Lacking the cutting edge of Ivan Toney, Brentford have done their best to offset his output by sharing chances around the squad. Bryan Mbuemo has never been a reliable finisher and this season is is underperforming xG by 1.6 goals (although he has made up for it in his assist output). Yoane Wissa on the other hand is guilty of a 1.7 goals underperformance and has not helped out creatively.

The You’re Not Actually That Good Award for Biggest Overperformance
Winner: Manchester City (+7.7 non-penalty xG // -0.3 opponent non-penalty xG)
Man City have managed to outscore their own performance by a massive 7.7 goals. Taken in combination with their relatively innocuous -0.3 xG against, that gives City an 8 goal swing against their actual performance level. Although the natural expectation would be that Haaland has carried this load, he is actually more-or-less matching xG (10 goals from 9.5xG). Overperformance has come from Silva, Doku and Akanji who have contributed a combined 7 goals from 1.9 xG. Regression is a very real possibility.

Runner-Up: Tottenham Hotspur (+1.8 non-penalty xG // -5.5 opponent non-penalty xG)
Tottenham have benefitted from opposition profligacy and their own overperformance in front of goal to a combined 7.3 goal swing in their favour. Son (+3.4), Kulusevski (+1.8) and Romero (+1.1) have all outperformed xG but they are somewhat cancelled out by Richarlison’s wasteful -1.7. The only other team with -5.5 xG against is Liverpool, who - opposite to Spurs - have scored less than their xG.

Player Awards
The BP Award for Unsustainable Performance
Winner: Pedro Neto (+4.3 xA)
Neto has gained lots of praise for his performances this season with a string of assists that shot him into the public attention again after two injury affected seasons. However, this run of assists looks likely to drop off again soon as his passes have led to +4.3 more goals than would be expected. A frankly ridiculous example of excellent finishing by the Wolves forwards, rather than great passing by Neto.

Runner-Up: Heung-min Son (+3.4 non-penalty xG)
As mentioned in the Tottenham round-up, Son has outperformed xG to a level than is frankly unsustainable, even for a forward as talented as Son. His inevitable regression back towards the mean is a large part of the reason to not take Tottenham seriously as title challengers.

The “Am I Bad or Just Unlucky?” Award for Biggest Underperformance
Winner: Marcus Rashford (-2.9 non-penalty xG)
Plenty of criticism for Rashford this season and not least of all because has been spurning chances like it’s a hobby. With an xG of 3.9, he should have roughly four goals in the league but is sat at just a solitary strike.

Runner-Up: Rasmus Hojlund (-2.5 non-penalty xG)
Ouch, the two biggest under-performers this season both at the same club… happily that club is Manchester United. Hojlund has no league goals yet, despite an xG of 2.5. Not only does he not have any goals but he also has no assists and, frankly, has not done a single thing in the Premier League to date. Saved from winning this award by Rashford’s greater wastefulness.

The “Doesn’t Belong in the Premier League” Award for Worst Overall Performance
Winner: Ameen Al-Dakhil (Burnley)
The young Belgian defender has been nothing short of a disaster in the heart of defence for Burnley. He is the worst defender in the league at challenging opposition players, with a success rate of just 11.1% and has committed three errors leading directly to shot on goal. He has also been terrible in the air (37.9% win rate), is one of the most dispossessed players in the league (0.63 per 90), has conceded a penalty and scored an own goal. A truly horrific welcome into English football.

Runner-Up: Jacob Brown (Luton Town)
Fact of the matter is that essentially the entire Luton team does not “belong” in the Premier League but Jacob Brown has struggled more than most. The forward, signed from Stoke this summer, has failed to score or assist in eleven appearances and seemingly can barely complete a pass at this level with a league low 50.4% completion. Brown also struggles to carry the ball with his 0.47 successful take ons per 90 coming in as the lowest in the league also.

The “Stevie G” Award for Most Complete Overall Footballer
Winner: Rodri (Manchester City)
An incredibly solid player right across the board statistically. Rodri has developed into the goalscoring midfielder that was seemingly a hole in the Man City squad after Gundogan left. Impressively he manages to be goalscorer, creator and defender all at the same time, although his defensive awareness is slightly less effective than his playmaking ability. He leads the league in passes per 90 and pass completion but also scores highly in his progressive stats, meaning he is not only passing sideways and backwards.

Runner-Up: Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)
The Hungarian dynamo has been a revelation for a rejuvenated Liverpool midfield this season and he has shocked many with his complete midfield performances. Usually deployed in an attacking midfield role, he ranks as one of the most active defenders in that category - with a league leading (among AMs) 1.86 blocks per game. He is one of the best in all attacking categories and would rate even higher if Liverpool’s forwards were not wasting changes he created (-1.6 xA).

The Johnny Cochrane Award for Best Defender
Winner: William Saliba (Arsenal)
Saliba is a game-changing defender for Arsenal. With him, they have a chance in a title fight but without him they can’t get close. He is an almost impossible defender to beat in the challenge with him winning 81.3% of tackles. He has low activity figures defensively but this only highlights his excellent positional quality that means he doesn’t rely on making tackles. Saliba is also one of the best on-the-ball defenders with a pass completion rate of over 91% being being a very progressive passer.

Runner-Up: Levi Colwill (Chelsea)
It’s been a disappointing season for Chelsea, at least until very recently, but Levi Colwill has been as good as advertised within it all. Playing sometimes at LCB and sometimes at LB means that he is often in more difficult defensive situations than CBs however he still has managed to successfully challenge 63.2% of dribblers - among the best for wide defenders. Colwill is also remarkably competent in the air, managing an impressive 72.2% win rate in aerial duels.

The USS Gerald R. Ford Award for Biggest Offensive Threat
Winner: Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Haaland is the human equivalent of Mons Meg. The six-tonne cannon was so heavy it could exhaust a whole team of oxen in only a few hundred metres and would take more than a day to get into position to fire. It’s an inefficient weapon that lacks versatility. Moving barely quicker than that and with a similar lack of versatility is Man City’s striker Erling Haaland but what both have in common is that when they do reach the business end they are ruthless at inflicting damage on their opposition. Haaland has the highest xG in the league at 12.7 - almost four goals ahead of second placed Mohamed Salah at 9.1.

Runner-Up: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
There is a good argument for Salah being the rightful winner of Biggest Offensive Weapon based on his overall contribution to the football game, rather than Haaland’s rather more narrow focus of scoring goals. Salah has the second highest xG in the league (9.1) and the highest xA (5.3). Where Haaland resembles a cannon, Salah is more of a Roman Gladius - picking his moments to expose the soft underbelly of a defence and cutting the opposition apart with ruthless efficiency.

The Chelsea Football Club Appreciation Award for Worst Transfer
Winner: Kai Havertz (Arsenal)
Mikel Arteta may be the only person surprised to find Havertz top of the worst transfers list at this stage of the season. The 70m man from Chelsea has continued his timid performances despite moving back into an attacking midfield role that was supposed to finally suit him. He manages a meager 29 passes per game and just 1.16 key passes on a very low 81% completion rate. Creatively he is on the lower half of all PL midfielders, with just 1.76 shot creating actions per 90 and a truly abject 12.5% success rate in take ons. In fairness to him he has worked hard defensively but I struggle to believe that’s what Arsenal were hoping for when they brought him to the club.

Runner: Rasmus Hojlund (Manchester United)
Ignore his five goals in the CL, this is the PL we are talking about and Hojlund has been practically invisible for Man Utd while wasting chances (-2.5 xG). Hojlund sits on the periphery of games, exampled by his 18 passes per game (lowest 5% among strikers) and his pass completion rate sits at barely above 70%. Man Utd have high hopes for his future but currently he has the weaknesses of Haaland’s game without the counter balancing goal contributions.

The Michael Edwards Award for Best Transfer
Winner: Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)
I’ve already talked about Szoboszlai but the midfielder has been so good he deserves to be brought up again. Revolutionising Liverpool’s midfield, Szoboszlai has been a key contributor at both ends of the field. Excitingly, his underlying stats show that he has even more room to grow - with his creativity having not yet been fully exploited by some poor finishing from his teammates.

Runner-Up: James Maddison (Tottenham Hotspur)
Maddison sits in contrast to Arsenal’s signing of Kai Havertz by showing himself to be a hugely beneficial influence on Spurs’ excellent start to the season. He already has 80 Shot Creating Actions and has returned 3 goals and 5 assists. He is one of the league’s most progressive passers (6.76 per 90. Word of warning though is that his assists total of 5 is inflated due to Heung-min Son’s outrageous overperformance to xG and - after a very hot start - he has just one assist in the last five games.

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@Sweeting

The one thing you are noted for in your assessment of performance/players/potential is your absolute equity when comparing Liverpool players with others. While most of us amateur assessors will lean towards “home” bias, your analysis is even and honest.

How highly you rate Szoboszlai is actually a shock confirmation of my own view on him. I thought I was getting carried away by his start at the club. I was tempering my views, particularly after unwarranted criticism of his last couple of games. But the so called drop off in form isn’t really significant. He will have dips, like most players. However the level he dips to is higher than most of those around him.

Well done (again) on your analysis, explaining and time.

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https://x.com/gregorypcordell/status/1726871818584158227?s=20

https://twitter.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1726873312708710662?t=f89UR3RO_bQ8HdaJcew2yw&s=19

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Thank you for this, confirms some stuff I had thought about but had missed other stuff.

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I might be misremembering this, but dont City often exceed their xG? If so, is this maybe an indication that the xG simply underweights the sort of chances tend to create a lot of?

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https://twitter.com/martynziegler/status/1727041274987807230

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Yes they do, although even by their standards being 7.7 goals ahead of xG after 12 games is high - that would be roughly +24 npxG if extrapolated across the season (eg last season they were +12 npxG, 21/22 +7.6 npxG, 20/21 +15.8 npxG, 19/20 +11.4).

Interesting thing about Man City is that last season Haaland outperformed npxG by 6 goals but this season he is running closer to the line at +0.5. Foden was +5.1 npxG across the season but this season is +0.2. City’s high “performers” against npxG are Silva (+2.1), Rodri (+1.8), Doku (+1.4) and Akanji (+1.6).

Rodri and Akanji both actually underperformed npxG last season and Doku has been known his whole young career as someone who lacks end product - if they maintain their current levels they’ll all have performed better against npxG than Haaland last season - which I think is an unrealistic expectation.

So either Haaland ups his game and starts taking lower xG chances or its likely City will regress as the season continues (not necessarily in results but in terms of npxG outperformance).

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Today the Premier League voted against a ban on loans between clubs owned by the same owner.

Seven Clubs voted against the proposal and therefore scuppered this coming into effect.

Newcastle, City, Chelsea are totally understandable shithouses who were always going to vote against this. Quite what Sheffield United, Everton, Wolves and Nottingham Forest are playing at is anyones guess.

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Sheffield United are owned by a Saudi Prince who likely would have no interest in crossing MBS

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Forest’s owner owns Olympiakos and has moved players between the two clubs. Wolves have a relationship with Austrian side Grasshoppers and their ownership, Fosun Group International, are actively looking to expand the number of clubs they own.

Everton are trying to be bought out by 777, who own Genoa, Standard Liege, Vasco de Gama and Hertha Berlin as well as trying to buy Sevilla.

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Despite that though you would have thought that all those relationships would benefit more from loaning out players to those foreign clubs rather than bringing in players from them. Newcastle look really to be the only club positioned to benefit from the potential of the incoming moves that are under debate.

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