Premier League 2025/26

[Sweeting]

To hopefully make ot slightly more comprehensible - home team projected goals is shown vertically on the left. Away team horizontally across the top.

So Leeds v Everton top three likrly results are 12.54% chance of finishing 1-1. 10.65% chance of finishing 1-0 to Leeds and 8.99% of 1-0 Everton.

However you also sum all of the results to give a home/draw/away win % so even though 1-1 is the mostly likely score Leeds are slight favorites (41.86%) to win.

The draw back of my methodology is it is pretty conservative in predicting goals so it produces a lot of low scores draws but also it makes sense as it is more likely to score one than two since you have to score one in order to score two. I focus more on the win% than the scoreline% though.

[Sweeting]

Yes, its Opta data that I then add some modifications to for impact of age and to lessen overresults from playing in lesser leagues.

[YoullNeverWalkAlone]

@Sweeting

based on the projected lineups

Would it be possible for you to post an updated prediction for each game once the line-ups have been confirmed?

I’d be interested to see how this works out.

[mattyhurst]

Is this the “trying to annually comply with PSR” derby?

[Livvy]

Welcome back @Sweeting

[The-AllMightyReds]

Do Villa plan on having a shot today or…?

[peterroberts]

They could do with a shot of something at half time. Newcastle have dominated them.

[Sweeting]

I can but I’ve got kids so I’m often not available to update it between the lineup being announced and kickoff.

For this Villa-Newcastle game though the lineups changed to projection to the below

So a slightly increased chance of a Newcastle win

[dalglish]

@Sweeting

I can but I’ve got kids

[The-AllMightyReds]

Great defending by Burn there.

For Villa

[Magnus]

Still very difficult for them. I doubt they can make it unless they improve a lot.

[peterroberts]

Gordon the twat.

[The-AllMightyReds]

Don’t think Konsa had any choice there.

[Rooster]

He did have a choice and got it wrong. Stupid foul.

[Limiescouse]

@mattyhurst

Is this the “trying to annually comply with PSR” derby?

It’s the “screw the cartel who want to keep clubs outside the big 6 out of the CL” derby

[peterroberts]

Did he really have to go down? If he’d stayed on his feet he’d have been in on goal

[dalglish]

I think he’s on a ‘free kick achieved’ rather than a goal or win bonus

[Limiescouse]

@peterroberts

Gordon the twat.

He’s an oik. “Clear contact”, but very debatable if it had any impact and absolutely not debatable that he theatrically threw himself to the ground the second he felt something.

[The-AllMightyReds]

Can’t help but feel Newcastle are missing something here, but not able to point my finger on what that quite might be.

[dalglish]

SandCastle are a bunch of diving twats. The game at St James will be frustrating…