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How sad. I shed tears. Not.
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Agree
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RU claim:
This is what they think will happen:
This one pro Ukrainian
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UKR claim
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@anon27364116
I am a Social Democrat. I dislike having to criticise Social democratic parties, I prefer shelling my usual political foes, like conservatives, communists or liberals. But I am also fair with my criticism no matter what party it is or which country it is (try to be anyway, maybe I am failing, I don’t know). German Social Democrats are giving the entire Social Democratic ideology a bad name and I absolutely hate it. But yes, I think this is doing a lot of strategic damage to Germany. States (and people) won’t just forget how Germany aided Russia’s build up, then watered down sanctions, then refused to give proper and necessary military aid afterwards, only giving absolute minimum they can get away with diplomatically. A lot of countries are absolutely fuming and if it was a bit less a powerful country than Germany, the level of criticism would be far, far harsher. But everyone is hoping that Germany will awaken and do the right thing, since it has such a large economy and could do so much.
I suspect it will be difficult to burn through that much 155mm ammo with towed guns. Ukraine will either struggle with finding the right opportunity to use them, or lose them to counterbattery long before they run out of ammo or wear down their barrels. With the huge number of Russian guns available for counterbattery fire missions, even their comparatively slow reaction is going to be a harsh limit on rounds fired. Even the best crews need far more time to pack up and particularly to set up for fire than a self-propelled unit - the ratio of firing time to set up time will be in minutes to hours.
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The criticism of Germany must be tempered by a look westward, where another critical NATO/EU member has a non-trivial chance of electing a Putin shill that Russia bought and paid for long ago.
I assume a lot of ammo will be blown up in air raids, but yes, this is huge. I wonder how many artillery systems they are getting though.
My concern is that they are getting the wrong equipment. The survivability of those M777s from a position of numerical inferiority is poor. Canada has known that for 25+ years, and has failed to do anything about it - we don’t have any self-propelled artillery.
The one thing that makes those units effective is the NATO satellite/GPS integrated fire control - which is almost certain to be stripped out.
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Oh, yes I know. France could and should do a lot more. Election there is absoluely crucial (and scary). Muh more could and should be said about France
However, I don’t think criticism of Germany should be tempered nor does anything France does excuse Germany. I think it is well deserved. For decades, everyone has respected that Germany is a special country, Germany is so allergic to anything that smells of militarism and everyone understood the spending and excused Germany for low NATO spending and more. Everyone was very, very understanding. No more. Through strategic partnership with Russia they have greatly aided Russia and then it’s time to take responsibility for that and properly aid Ukraine when it backfires so spectacularly. Germany has a special responsibility here, and more so than say, France. Zeitenwende is just a word for now. Looking forward to what kind of army Germany will build, but for now, what truly matters is what real aid they can give Ukraine.
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Ukraine would be forgiven for thinking they’ve seen this sort of crap before.
Ukraine will want rock solid assurances this time, akin to Article 5, and unconditional on UNSC approval.
Which countries will give them that? It would first need changes to be made to the UN charter.
Either the UN charter is significantly revised or the UN is replaced, otherwise we’re condemning it to be forever ineffectual at its core charge.
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It is not 100% clear to me what Ukraine is getting. It is still foggy. Counter battery radars, they need more of that too.
Yeah, but remember, it is Ukraine itself that is asking for France and NATO states to make this guarantee. I agree that there needs to be more countries behind it though. US and UK needs to be onboard really.
Taking the liberty to post a snippet from this, since I suspect many just don’t open and read these. Open article for full analysis with maps
April 19, 5:30 pm ET
Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conducted intensive artillery and air bombardments of many areas along the front line from around Izyum to Mykolaiv but relatively few ground offensive operations. Russian forces continue to receive personnel and equipment reinforcements as well as command-and-control and logistics capabilities even as they conduct air and artillery preparations and some mechanized advances.
The Russians have not fully set conditions for a large-scale offensive operation. The Russians have not had enough time to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and ready them properly for a new offensive in the east. The Russians appear to be still building logistics and command-and-control capabilities even as they start the next round of major fighting. The tempo of Russian operations continues to suggest that President Vladimir Putin is demanding a hasty offensive to achieve his stated objectives, possibly by “Victory Day” on May 9. The haste and partial preparation of the Russian attack will likely undermine its effectiveness and may compromise its success.
Russian forces appear to be attempting to conduct a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along axes from Izyum to the southeast and from Donetsk City to the north even as they push west from Popasna and positions north of Severodonetsk. Russian ground offensives in the last 24 hours occurred around Izyum, Kreminna (north of Severodonetsk), and from Donetsk City toward Avdiivka. Only the advance to and possibly through Kreminna made significant progress. An encirclement on this scale would likely take considerable time to complete against Ukrainian resistance. Even if the Russians did complete such an encirclement and trapped a large concentration of Ukrainian forces inside one or more pockets, the Ukrainian defenders would likely be able to hold out for a considerable period and might well be able to break out.
The Russians may alternatively try to complete several smaller encirclements simultaneously, each trapping fewer Ukrainian forces and therefore taking less time to complete and then reduce. Coordinating such operations is complicated and beyond the planning and execution capacities the Russian army has demonstrated in the conflict thus far.
Ukrainian forces continue to defend parts of the Azovstal complex in Mariupol, but Russian officials and media are gathering in and near the city, likely in preparation to declare victory in the coming days whether or not fighting continues.
Key Takeaways
- The next phase of the Russian offensive in Ukraine’s east has reportedly begun, largely with artillery and air bombardments supporting a few small-scale ground offensives.
- Russian officials and media are likely preparing to declare victory in Mariupol in the coming days, possibly before Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal facility have been fully defeated.
- The Russians may be attempting a single wide encirclement of Ukrainian forces from Izyum to Donetsk City or a series of smaller encirclements within that arc. It is too soon to assess the intended Russian scheme of maneuver.
- Russian operations continue to proceed hastily, as if President Vladimir Putin has set an arbitrary date by which they must succeed. Putin may have decided that he will announce a Russian success and the completion of the operation on Victory Day, May 9. The haste with which Russian forces are moving may compromise the success of their operations.
Full analysis with maps under:
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