I’ll bet you £100m that we won’t have a global nuclear war in the next 10 years. Not really a bet I care about losing. Because if I do, I’m toast anyway.
Immense amount of bravery being shown by all kinds of people. Soldiers, Ukraine politicans, the general public taking up arms. Even the Russian protesters. 
When the world needs a united front. Germany/Italy and others can’t be holding back. It’s cowardly.
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However, it must be said, so far, it is the UK sanctions that are the weakest. EU sanctions actually draconian and hurts. agree that Germany and Italy trying to water everything down though.
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(just now, so not same situation as above).
Everyone is awaiting tonight’s storm…
Zelensky: "This night they will launch an assault.
The enemy will use all of their power on all fronts to break our defense.
This night we have to stand ground. The fate of Ukraine is being decided now."
“This night will be difficult, very difficult. But the morning will come.”
I hope this is bullshit, but they do have those TOS-1A’s in their columns. They can use them. Will they ?
Zelensky can’t leave Kiev for the sake of morale if they wish to continue defending. However he should be making sure he’s a figurehead and that effective government is transferred to Lyviv or another more defensible position so that when Kiev is taken, the fight can continue. It’s a harsh reality but if they wish to prolong the defence and hold the country for as long as they can, Kiev is just one city and it can’t be ‘Ukraine falls if Kiev falls’. Defend the city tooth and nail if need be, but government continuance must be ensured if surrender is not going to happen.
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If Russia were to do that I don’t think NATO could ignore it. I’d expect that if Ukraine asked for military assistance at that point, NATO would answer.
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They would, just not with troops or direct military action. All sorts of increased military aid, yes, that and economic aid to keep Ukraine afloat, as well as other emergency aid; I would expect that.
But NATO does not defend non-treaty members. It would then be some sort of coalition of the willing for that to happen, and USA has stated several times that they really don’t want direct contact with RU forces.
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One scenario that seems not unlikely is the Ukrainian government being run in exile from Warsaw. How does that sort of stance from a NATO member go down with Russia (assuming the Russian perspective that has driven this invasion)? Do Russia see that level of support as being provocative…antagonistic? How does that change if Russia somehow manage ti insert a pro-russian puppet government in Kiev?
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UAE and India have not supported a UN Security Council resolution, condemning Russia.
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That’s a tougher question and one I can’t answer. Some sort of government in exile, hmm.
Rumours so far is that RU wants 70 percent of Ukraine, including Kyiv and install a sort of “western Germany” in Lviv and call it a day. That’s just RAW intel though, I got no idea if it is actually the plan. The idea is that RU does not want, people think, to occupy most Western ukraina due to cultural population/demography.
The seem to be after a decapitation strike though. Zelenski won’t be the one they, if so happens, allows installed in Lviv.
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Everything also depends on how many Quislings are in Kyiv…
A full occupation and annexation just does not seem realistic. Ukraine is too big, there is too big a nationalist sentiment in most of the country to quell, and it accelerates his problem of having NATO on his door step if Ukraine ceases to exist. So, Im thinking about what his exit strategy from this is. All I’m left with is wondering what is enough to make him turn around and go home satisfied? Ousting the government and installing his own? Simply having been able t show he can do this and not get any resistance?
What I see as his end game is like some form of pro russian government installed with him able to go back home claiming he was vindicated in his claims he was only taking defensive action. That gives him a line he can stick to (even though no one believes him), and a huge buffer between him and NATO. Everyone then just moves on treating the exiled Ukrainian government like the ex husband of your friend you unfortunately have to bump into every once in a while who always tells you that you should hang out sometime and you say “sure” with absolutely zero intention of returning his call.
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I heard somewhere in the region of 350,000 military personnel, would be needed for the occupation of Ukraine. That doesn’t seem to be sustainable.
Yeah, the entire operation seems absurd/borderline insane, to me; but here we are. Analysts I follow claim that Putin won’t settle for less than maximal demands since political war goals won’t be reached if they just give Kyiv a military lesson and occupy fully Donbas. He will just have exasperated the problem of a hostile Ukraine they say. So they think he, since he was mad enough to push the button on this, wants maximal settlement, just like they say. A demilitarised and neutral Ukraine and control of Kyiv for cultural reasons.
But I can’t say, I just read and make assumptions from what I read. Putin has created a new Cold War, almost, which seemed insane to do; so how far will he go ?
Agree with the Pro-Russian gov. That is what he seemingly wants. No way they want to occupy fully western ukraine.
In theory, but the leaked plan by the US involved Quislings taking control with the help of RosGvardia and sending troublemakers to camps. Is it true ? I don’t know.
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Buuuuuuut:
Salt, because:
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also, no EWAR (what the hell are they waiting for, that is the one million dollar question).
I guess the issue is, short of leaving troops there, ostensibly by invitation of the new government, how do they stop another revolution? What’s his plan to make his puppet government more secure than the Yanukovic one was when the opposition against will be way more intense?