Russian War Crimes (Part 1)

Has he called Zelensky a pedo yet?

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So Kiev holds another night. Intense bombardments but seemingly less close quarter fighting and actual attempts to break into the city? Waiting to bring up more and more armour and strike artillery? Waiting for forces in the south and east to make more gains? I think it’s a tacit acknowledgment that they expected to have taken Kiev by now and they’re slightly bemused about what to do next and whether to stick or twist.

It’s going to turn into a meat grinder for them, especially when the hardware aid turns up. The disinformation they’re peddling to their people about casualties is astonishing. The Russian people need to see what’s going on.

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All this talk about more armaments being supplied to Ukraine but how on earth will they get there? Surely the russians have total control of the skies and will be looking for convoys…why have we told them they are on their way? Is it a bluff? Wouldn’t we be better sneaking them in without telling them they are coming…?

In any case is it not too little too late?

Yes, I told you that it will useful against helicopters and low/slow flying aircrafts.

SU 25s can take considerable AA fires. But they are low-flying, slow, and not agile to evade missiles.

It’s being widely reported that they have failed to gain control of the skies. One of the biggest military cock ups of the 21st century.

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Daily mail now reporting that the troops of snake island are in fact alive and are prisoners.

  1. Russia has used only about one-third of the forces it has mustered around Ukraine.

  2. It appears that the first-wave consisted mostly of poorly trained conscripts. Well-trained and battle-hardened soldiers (thousands of them) could be sent next.

  3. It’s not about occupying Ukraine. It’s about breaking their spine.

  4. Native forces from Crimea and Donbas (in the unlikely event of a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal) can carry out attacks and keep Ukraine destabilized.

  5. Mercenary forces can carry out attacks deep into Ukraine and make it destabilized.

  6. Russia doesn’t care about its losses, it will use a sledge-hammer to crack a walnut.

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No country can afford to commit an entire mobilization except in all out total war when the alternative is total defeat anyway. 150k troops a as a number means nothing in terms of what can and will be entered into an active theater as those probably comprise of not just front line troops but also non-combat support troops like engineers, medics, etc who can probably wield weapons but are unlikely to do so while being part of an invading force.

You are assuming that this first wave was the cannon fodder sent in to soften up the defence with the ‘real’ troops on the way. I’m not sure any real army thinks that way. I think it more likely that the entire Russian Army is exactly the same cross section of what we’ve seen deployed in action; a mix of green conscripts who were unluckly enough to have war on their turn at national duty with some being doubly unlucky to have it literally within months of joining, career soldiers with varying degree of experience and an officer class with varying degrees of competency. Any invading army that has a large degree of conscripts will suffer as opposed to a volunteer army. Conscription is only really effective in a defensive force because they’re back to the wall anyway and are fighting for their homes and people. Use conscripts anywhere else and regardless of how intelligent and capable that individual may be, his morale to actually do it with conviction will be lacking.

To answer your 3rd point, the number of troops assembled points decisively to the rear echelons being utilized as a mopping up and occupation force and weren’t envisioned as relief columns hence the faffing around now as they bring them forward.

The challenge is though no country wants a destabilised neighbour.

Even if the objective is to break Ukraine. It’s what happens next? The only option is a puppet government or occupy. Both require a sizeable force to maintain viability. Like Afghanistan I can’t see a good way out. A long term plan.

We think of Afghanistan as a terrible drain on the US. Ukraine could be 10x worse. Given amount of population trained and the amount of modern weapons. Even worse for Russia as a neighbour it opens them up to terrorist activities.

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Not true, it’s losing £20bil a day in the war, add that to the financial sanctions the country is going to crash Monday. Russia did not want a long drawn out war.

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Russia lucky that the SWIFT thing was decided on a Saturday evening and now they have 40 hours to prepare before markets open on Monday morning.

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Zelensky publicly inviting foreign nationals to come and fight alongside Ukrainians in a specially formed “International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine”.

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From the BBC

8:54

Civilians walk back Russian tank

Here’s a video that shows Ukrainian residents stopping advancing Russian tanks by walking at them en masse.

It is understood the scene was filmed in Koryukivka, in Chernihiv region.

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8:41

Finland and Ireland block Russian flights

Finland and Ireland have announced they too will close their airspace to Russian planes.

It is not yet known when the measures will take effect.

Finland shares a 1,300-kilometre (800-mile) border with Russia - meaning a main westbound route from Russia will be closed.

Other countries such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Poland and the UK, have already made similar decisions.

Moscow, for its part, has also banned planes from several countries from flying over its territory.

This man was so underestimated.

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I have a genuine question, for those who probably knows more about such war politics etc… So what will happen to all the sanctions after this war ends? If Russia overrun Ukraine and the current government surrenders control, and Russia installs a temporary government and “peace” returns, will the sanction then ends? Or if Russia after a while that its not worth it, decides to pull out from the invasion and gain control of the regions they wanted, like Crimea in the past, and stop the invasion, will the sanctions end? Just curious to know what are the possible outcomes and how Russia will continue to be penalize or let off after the invasion ends one way or another.

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I believe the sanctions applied to Putin in the past have in the most part been reduced/removed shortly after a conflict?

I’m really hoping the West have learnt from that mistake.

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