Russians withdrawing from right bank (west bank of anyone is confused) by many, many accounts. I’m quite interested to see in how good a order this is happening. HIMARS should have fire control of at least some of the routes over the Dnieper. I mean they’ve been hitting the pontoon bridge next to Antonovsky regularly enough.
2 Likes
5 Likes
1 Like
It is supposed to be a trap if you have seen recent videos. Russia has moved all their artillery and dug it down onthe east side and this is supposed to be a kill zone (the West bank). Time will tell if it works for Russian command. In any case this is still good news.
4 Likes
I don’t see Ukraine being able to depose Russian forces from their existing positions in 2023.
Feels like RU is taking advantage of the weather, fortifying positions and settling in on the east side of the Dniper river up to ZNPP (which will be connected to Russia, largest NPP in Europe!). Then up through Bakhmut area and up through Kreminna>Svatove to RU border.
3 Likes
…and waiting for AFU to settle down in retreated areas this autumn and bomb them to hell via arty, from ships/subs, bombers in upcoming winter.
Just a feeling…
2 Likes
That is their plan. It’s a very clear and obvious plan so no need for even VAR here 
I believe AFU with all the surveillance help from the West won’t fall into this trap. They will (let’s hope) outsmart them…
If you open the twitter account I have used lately for lazy updates Noel) you are going to see a storm of real time capture of villages. I don’t have time to be “on” and post all the time but it’s going to be a big night and a big day tomorrow.
1 Like
Watch the stylistic pantomine show:
I beleive this is what is called going through the motions for the cameras.
1 Like
Such a shame:
1 Like
it really does look as if UA forces are trying to push forward but RU are just throwing mobilized civilians at them in waves to try and set their positions. Allow them to fortify lines and hunker down where they currently are. all along the front from Zaporzhizhia up to Donetsk/Horlivka. But those will be RU strongholds in that region. I don’t know where else the UA will be able to make advances in the next 6 mo without taking some drastic losses.
The guys who does the “Reporting from Ukraine” channels references a lot about the terrain which is missing from a lot of maps, so I thought I’d bring this topic up for discussion. breaking the front into three sections you can see where the lines sit in the North and South, but not the Central.
North…See the ridgeline overlooking Pokrovske > Svatove > Kreminna? I think this will be the extent of the UA advance for a while. Having high ground is wonderful to defend from, but you’re fully exposed in an assault once you clear the treeline into a place like Svatove and you’re going to be picked off trying to cross the bridges over the river into the west side of the city. There’s a river which runs along that ridgeline.
Through the center, there’s a similar ridgeline running between Kramatorsk and Horlivka that follows the Vovcha River and is the border between Dnipro and Donesk oblasts for a good portion of it. I’ve outlined it in black to show it’s location but I haven’t transposed it onto a current map of the front line to see how it corresponds.
The South section is pretty self-explanatory. From Zaporzhizhia south the Dnipro river separates the two armies.
3 Likes
2 Likes
I know we should by now fully expect it, but the level of Russian bullshit never fails to amaze me. Tass reporting a reason for the withdrawal a risk of UA blowing the dam and flooding the area. What nonsense. I expect the greater events of the coming winter will be the new lows of even more purely fictionalised Russian bullshit. Its as if they live in a low intelligence bubble they cannot see out of to know that no one believes them. It would be amusing were it not profusely dangerous. So I expect a winter of bullshit holding this new line before a renewed attack on Kyiv next spring. Unless of course Z does a deal and cedes territory. I cannot see Z doing that unless he loses Western support, which could even turn on the US congressional voting.
1 Like
you’re seeing it happen before our eyes. Russia is already hinting at it…
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1590339761210023938?s=20&t=s3lqWJ2OFXNQCgJSobI15Q
Yes this is what I was referring to, another bullshit analysis, because they cannot hold the war for the time being. Its been talked up for 2-3 weeks. Still, even with a cease fire, Russia drums up another reason for a renewed assault on Kyiv next spring.
2 Likes
1 Like
1 Like