I didn’t intend my post to be taken as as challenge to @Iftikhar. Sorry if it came over that way.
There’s been a lot of talk about herd immunity and I was just questioning if there was any evidence that it is a reality / possibility in the case of Covid 19.
If there isn’t (any evidence), then it is reckless for any government to take the gamble.
Freedumb…
yep. and I certainly didn’t see your post as a challenge in any way. I hope @Iftikhar saw it the same way.
Reckless os right but I would argue that’s exactly what we have , among other choice terms that I could use.
beginning to feel more worried all over again.
I think you can make an argument that whatever the factors were that made a place susceptible to a first wave spread, e.g. culture, demography, urban design, make it susceptible to a resurgence.
There an argument that the ones that were hit worst are more susceptible to lowering their guard once they seem to get it under control because the improvement is more tangible, and that leads to an over reaction and rebound, but NYC appears to be arguing against that, at least in terms of the broad strokes.
It was estimated that 6% of the population was infected during the 1st wave, this second wave looks more wide spread (in France) we could see double or triple so 18 to 24% at this rate at least 4 waves will be needed at a guess. That’s not taking into account how long immunity lasts or anything else just an extrapolation of estimated infection ‘rates’.
As this 2nd wave is soo wide spread we are now definitely in the realms of having herd immunity numbers eventually. The 1st wave was localised clusters for example the hot spot in France for this second wave (PACA) was hardly touched 1st wave.
It has been hard to take seriously since ‘freedom fries’
Oddly enough in German debates the complete opposite argument is often made, the ‘there’s no glory in prevention’ point, where the most resistance against measures is often in areas that haven’t been hit hard at all, so hardly anyone knows anyone who’s had it (many parts of East Germany for example).
I’m also wondering what is so different about e.g. Italy vs Spain this time around (at the moment at least). Oh well, we’ll see…
Once approved they will still have to run real-world post-marketing trials (phase 4) on real patients. These studies are run to do a more robust safety analysis of how it is used in the real world, but are also often designed with a view to allowing them to expand their indication and label claim. So there is potential for one of these first movers to later demonstrate a more clinically relevant effect with the already approved drug.
The problem though is as you described, the public believing the early movers “work” will result in behaviors that will make the situation worse. That ranges from the discarding of social distancing etc to participants refusing to participate in the studies of the other vaccines still in development.
Not all of them though. Italy are doing really well so far.
Meanwhile, Sweden enjoy a good time, with an average of only one dead every day, and no noticeable improvement in new cases.
That can of course all change as we head into the winter, but it seems that some countries have learnt their lesson, while others haven’t.
Aye, see my last post above, the Italy thing is part of what makes me wonder. I’d really like to find out what the reason for the difference between e.g. Italy and Spain is atm. Not sure there is an easy answer though.
Not terribly impressed with Sweden tbh, but probably best not get into that Sweden debate again 
[quote=“Cologne-Liverpool, post:294, topic:346”]
Oddly enough in German debates the complete opposite argument is often made, the ‘there’s no glory in prevention’ point, where the most resistance against measures is often in areas that haven’t been hit hard at all, so hardly anyone knows anyone who’s had it (many parts of East Germany for example). [/quote]
@Cologne-Liverpool tagging you as the quote got screwed up and Im seemingly unable to fix it.
Yeah, we see the same thing here - sheltered from the first wave, initial rejection of the concern and mitigation efforts then becomes entrenched even when that first wave eventually hits them.
But I do think that is a different effect than the tendency to let your guard down once you see tangible signs of improvement. The guy who owns my company is a Frenchman who now lives in NYC. In June when NYC first started opening back up he went to Paris to see his family. He lasted 1 day before he said fuck it and rented a villa in the country to get away from people because he just could not get his head around how lax everyone was being. But it is very much a celebratory “we beat this thing” sort of response. IF there is something about that specific place that explained why it got hit hard in the first wave other than luck, under those circumstances you would expect a big second wave.
I dont know if that explains it, and there are obviously a massive variety of different responses that we see even within a single population, but I see enough examples of that to suggest it might be contributing.
@Lowton_Red it’s cool mate.
@Noo_Noo in addition to what you said, I want to add the Bangladesh experiment.
We started to remove the restrictions from May 31 and 300000 of the recorded infections happened after that. Number of tests were very low and the process was seriously discouraging for the people. Finally, we didn’t had any contact tracing mechanisms.
In short, too much were left to the chances or to the people to fend for themselves.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-uk-coronavirus-cases-soar-22731021
Over 6000 new infections.
Daily death rate is now going up again. In most European countries, it has at least doubled since last week. That applies for the UK as well, admittedly starting from a low point (7 days-average of around 23 deaths a day now, compared to an average of 11 deaths a day last week, according to worldometer).
That’s above the pwak figure for the first wave according to the FT website. Obviously there’s differences in testing numbers but still a scary figure. Especially when you think they still aren’t anywhere near capturing all of those infected.
… and you think that’s bad, just look at what in stall by looking at the French tidal wave (that started over a month before the UK’s) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/.
I’m isolating!
That daily cases graph is scary!!
I suspect we’re on the same trajectory. All the signs are there and as far as I’m concerned there’s nothing to stop it reaching those levels.
“people enjoy freedoms” and “testing and tracing do not stop the transmission of the disease”. 2 quotes from our wonderful PM in the last 24hrs.
He really said that? Ffs. 
To be fair, he have been offering a comment on the new app
Yup. In answer to a question on the new restrictions yesterday. Basically trying to defend the track and trace mess. Badly I might add,