And then… there are these weirdos
It is depressing to see how easily curve-fitting models are confirming those initial high R value predictions. I think we are nailed on for a March spike here, and if it is bigger than the one we have just moved past, it will be catastrophic.
The Sanofi mRNA vaccine candidate hasn’t even entered phase 1 trials so what are you talking about?
Their mRNA vaccine could be better than anyone else for all you know and then their production capacity could be important.
Then again you should perhaps ask Pfizer and Moderna whether they have put such a task out to tender first, no?
Of 61% shortfall?
That is exactly why we are in semi-confinement here. The general numbers are progressively going down and the situation in hospitals is now under control, if not back to normal in some areas.
But… the B117 variant is progressing at a rate of more than double each week (from 200 recognised cases two weeks ago to 500 last week, and today it’s slightly less than 200 each day, roughly 10% of all cases), despite of us having every shop and restaurant closed since more than two weeks now… so, there is talk here of even stronger restrictions in order to tackle it.
At least, it’s apparently not more lethal or aggressive than the original virus.
That is simply incorrect. Sanofi has done Phase 1 and Phase 2, with mediocre results. Interim results were available in early Decemeber. They had planned to start a Phase 3 in December-January.
The irony.
Mexico appears to have got a 100% shortfall on the same monthly basis (i…e February shipment is now March)
That’s not an mRNA vaccine though is it?
I have already posted about this earler in reply to Redfanman.
Do be careful about false news/claims!
No, the Sanofi/Translate mRNA one is further behind in the development queue, but Sanofi apparently has production capability that was previously intended to be used for their GSK collaboration - it isn’t clear if that includes the critical mRNA step. The le Figaro interview regarding the production of Pfizer vaccines oddly used something like ‘mettre en flacons’ which suggests it might not.
It seems like the EU is making a concerted effort to include the 2 UK production sites within its own supply agreement (4 AZ plants in Europe includes the 2 in the UK).
I note that the agreement states estimated "delivery dates " and has a proviso for production problems however it still seems poor of AZ to have to reduce the delivery by so much.
I just hope we get it in time to prevent a disaster like that in the UK . Hopefully things are about to get better due to the vaccination rate. Spain deaths today are have gone up to 591 but hopefully will start to go down again with new restrictions in many areas.
But that production capacity is mRNA based is it?
The recombination vaccine is prbably the most important even if not the most interesting. This is because it is easier and faster to identify problems and rectify them (which is evidenced by the flu vaccines). If you read the article they identied the problem and know how to rectify it, once they get that sorted then reacting to new variants become so much easier. It’s why they are persisting with it because it can offer a long term solution and as such production capacity for is important. Btw it’s a GSK tech so why not talk about their capacity as well even if it’s not at all alighned to mRNA production?
There’s enormous capacity in France to put stuff in vials even Astra/Zeneca have a massive factory for that in Dunkerque but aren’t using it!
This article in the FT suggests that the EU are mistaken about what they are entitled to out of UK production…
https://twitter.com/Jderbyshire/status/1354325181481807873
AstraZeneca denied it had “diverted any supply from the Europe supply chain to countries outside the EU”. Mene Pangalos, the company’s executive vice-president of biopharmaceuticals research and development, said the company had “set up independent manufacturing supply chains for the UK and EU very specifically to avoid supply problems that are being highlighted right now”.
The relevance is that Sanofi had capacity (that they are now converting over to produce Pfizer), no idea if GSK does. The Sanofi announcement came as a surprise to me. As I noted above, it isn’t clear that that is mRNA capacity, or simply everything else, allowing Pfizer to focus on the mRNA step.
Oh well…
A plant where doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine are produced and stored has been evacuated after receiving a suspicious package.
North Wales Police said officers were at Wrexham Industrial Estate in Ash Road, Holt.
Vaccine producer Wockhardt UK said: “Upon expert advice we have partially evacuated the site.”
Police said a cordon had been put in place near the Wockhardt plant and the public have been asked to keep away.
There are no reports of any injuries.
The BBC understands that the bomb disposal unit is on site.