The Corona Pandemic

Kopstar · 2 February 2021 22:42

Recommend read the thread of that last one

Magnus · 2 February 2021 23:30

Didn’t intend to answer now as I need a break from reading this shit for my mental hygiene, but since I got 5 min (also, thanks for kind words, Kopstar).

The truth is that I don’t understand this. I won’t attempt to pretend I do, I am not going to try to spin anything to appear wiser than I am. I know my limitations. And the truth is that I don’t understand this, but I am pissed off and some what distraught. I don’t understand how it is possible that they (AZ) could only have known this catastrophically vast gap between expectation of what they could deliver and what they now can deliver only a few days ago. Maybe that makes sense to you, but to a layman like me, it gives rise to extreme skepticism, and I mean extreme. When then my own minister of health says that it has been very problematic to get data out of AZ, I get incensed and even more skeptical. I still am. And it won’t go away without a much better explanation of how this is even possible. I don’t understand why they have failed to inform, because if they have, it is criminal imo and I don’t care what the legalese then says. If they have failed to inform as they should, knowing how important this is, then I hope there will be consequences. But I have no relevant expertise, I just can’t fathom how this is possible that they did not suspect massive shortfalls prior to this and I am therefore very skeptical.

On another note of balanced fairness: I haven’t commented on it prior to this, but Macron jabbering about lack of effectiveness was incredibly irresponsible, none of his doctors would have said that, as the data does not show that. Shines a bad light on President Macron.
EU commission seeking to invoke article 16 of the post-brexit pact obviously massively embarrasing, but nothing actually happened so I frankly don’t care much about that. Read David Allen Green’s take on that yesterday, was an interesting read:What is Article 16 of the Northern Irish Protocol – and what on Earth was the European Commission thinking? (Includes a copy of the now deleted proposed regulation.) – The Law and Policy Blog
European commission doesn’t have a long catalogue of massive blunders though, like Allen Green also notes. But imo someone should be demoted, possibly even lose their job. Because it was a spectacular own goal.

But yeah, the vaccine-beer analogy (or yeast as our Roman general noted) , while I have made some home made beer, I am a total amateur and still don’t understand how Az could not have known the massive shortfalls of their production. Because if they did, which is what they are being accused of, then they have been incredibly irresponsible to say the least. But I am open to being wrong on every suspicion, because as I said, I don’t really understand it and I won’t pretend I do. So yeah, that’s some humility from me, because the truth is I don’t understand this well, it just seems very illogical to my layman knowledge that AZ could not have known there would be very large short falls.

Kopstar · 2 February 2021 23:57

As far as I can tell, AZ notified the EC of shortfalls on 22 January. The key here would be when AZ had sight of the lower yield amounts. If each “batch” is capable of producing anywhere between 10 million and 40 million doses, they run 4 batches for the EU and each one produces a yield at the lower end, that’s a significant shortfall and one that may not have been visible until the end of the process, whenever that was but it seems likely it would have been in January given the expected date of the first delivery, application for EMA approval, and delays in getting the EU sites up and running.

Magnus · 3 February 2021 00:03

Thanks. Off now for bed, so good night.

Maybe I have been really unreasonable, I can be like most people. But I have no expertise and it seems so strange, since I thought the company follows the production process in detail.

ISMF · 3 February 2021 00:41

@Magnus

I understand where you are coming from, and I think its fair. I think its a big part of the issue is expectations. I took it for granted that orders were for best case, with a reasonable expectation of falling short. Hence western countries ordering enough vaccines to cover population 7x over. For me that tells me the EU knew that production (or approval) would likely fail.

Thats why I think drug companies have been taken aback by the response. In AZ minds they have done a fantastic job delivering 40M vaccines Q1 to Europe. They wish it could be more but, what they have done (time and scale) is like nothing achieved before. So I think it has been a bit of a shock to them. I am biased towards the drug maker, as while I have not done the exact process. I have done similar things (making chemicals using bacteria). As a scientist you give guestimates, of yield. The challenges of scientists handing over work to engineers (change of pressure, surface volume, difficulties of sterility) all make it hard and unpredictable. I once spent a month growing, only for a contamination to ruin the entire batch. Other times I got half yield and there was no obvious reason. Perhaps impurity in raw ingredient, or slight timing different. You can spend all the time, effort and energy and at the very end of the process of several weeks find out you have a really good yield. Or be disappointed that it performed poorly.

Now the key question for me, is how much did the politicians understand or not understand ? I find it difficult them to say they ordered 100M and expect 100M, as if it was any other product. When they have ordered in such excess. The communication has broken down somewhere, or it is being deliberately misrepresented. I think its probably both.

Kopstar · 3 February 2021 00:50

For me you have to look at the procurement team. Kate Bingham clearly understood the process and was highly qualified to lead the UK procurement team. Was that the case with the EU? Because if it was, and the team leading the procurement understood the issues involved, then someone’s being disingenuous.

redfanman · 3 February 2021 09:06

Just seen news that GSK has signed a deal with CureVac to deliver 100m doses of CureVac’s mRNA vaccine later this year, and its next generation of mRNA vaccines next year. CureVAc’s vaccone is currently in stage 2b/3 trials so I don’t know how far off that is from being added to the current vaccines that are available. This is another one that can be stored at normal temperatures.

Kopstar · 3 February 2021 09:19

I think that they’re looking at next year for mass roll out on that one. GSK facilities in Belgium (those Belgians again!) being considered for production.

Noo_Noo · 3 February 2021 09:22

I have a question. Is the fact that the expected values are based on a linear or straight upward projection of production volume a really stupid way of predicting the volume of vaccine production? It seems mad to me that you base your expected production on what is almost an unachievable quantity, especially when there are so many uncontrollable factors that come into play.

Forgive me if I’ve misunderstood the process.

Kopstar · 3 February 2021 09:42

I’m probably not the right person to be answering - I think it’s just about scaling up but I really don’t know whether that would normally be a linear projection or not. From the sounds of it, it would be a lot more ‘lumpy’ in reality but I guess you cannot predict those peaks and troughs so a straight line is trying to indicate the expected increase in output as plotted as a straight line. Presumably this is done based on experience of how other vaccines have been produced?

Noo_Noo · 3 February 2021 09:45

Cheers, I’m probably wrong but I thought it was based on straight line scaling up from a high yield at low volumes with very little allowance for the possibility of low yields.

I just the get the feeling that expectation was “set” extremely high for this and something that was going to be very difficult to attain especially when there are other factors in play.

gasband · 3 February 2021 09:50

Singapore becomes the first in Asia to approve Moderna’s vaccine and will receive the first batch in March.

I think the challenge for us will come when Sinovac’s vaccine is approved, if approved of course, and since we cannot choose the vaccines (although we will be informed which vaccine we are receiving) and a test of how trusting we are of the government’s approval process for Sinovac compared to the Pfizer and Moderna ones

Hope.in.your.heart · 3 February 2021 10:03

I’m a bit stunned at how worked up everyone is with this lack of production capacity. You could see it coming, couldn’t you? Having to put up production capacities for billions of doses in a few months was always to be difficult, if not impossible.

The fact that so many politicians get worked up so much about this issue is pathetic. They really should grow up a bit.

gasband · 3 February 2021 10:06

And that is why I asked earlier whether the ‘worked up’ is not really about the delay but about pride and trying to show off the clout in front of their own people that as an Union, they are better off than the UK by itself. But that is only my own curious question rather than knowing it as a fact or opinion.

Noo_Noo · 3 February 2021 10:35

I think that stems from not understanding the process, the potential problems and of course when did a politician ever miss and opportunity to stick the knife in?

I agree they do need grow up, it’s not the time but I am intrigued in how we ended up with such a large disparity. To my mind this should have been an risk that was both understood and quantified.

RedSeven · 3 February 2021 11:21

It is possible they didn’t listen when told a low yield was possible or where led to believe a high yield was probable.Either way they expected a high yield and therefore a larger number of doses.

My opinion is something unexpected happened with AZ (it happens) and von der Leyen, believing they were assured of a high number of doses, went on the attack.

She could have simply critised AZ if she felt they over predicted more than was probable or she could have explained that sometimes in this type of process yields can be low early on.

I do wonder though if she believes the unexpected issue with AZ was not necessarily to do with low yield and more to do with a smaller batch input and that is the reason behind her overreaction.

Kopstar · 3 February 2021 11:52

Noo_Noo · 3 February 2021 11:58

No so thanks for the heads up.

JU97ICE · 3 February 2021 12:41

I do wonder how the AZ supply ‘situation’ affects the EU as a whole. Let’s consider that many EU countries have decided that there isn’t the data to go forward with vaccinating over 65s with the AZ vaccine. So in effect those countries will vaccinate over 65s with only the Pfizer vaccine (at this stage). Looking through that lens, the lack of AZ supply makes little difference to the vaccination programmes in those countries initially, at least until they start vaccinating the adult population which is months away (assumption that<65 with underlying conditions follow the inoculation plans of 65+)

What is the likelihood that the smaller EU Nations will follow the guidance of the EU(AZ vaccine for all age groups) rather than following the lead of Germany? Is it possible that the hope was that some smaller nations would choose AZ inoculations for over 65s and thus freeing up Pfizer vaccines for the larger nations that are only going to use Pfizer vaccines at this stage?

RedSeven · 3 February 2021 13:01

If Germany etc has decided that AZ is not good enough for them and that Pfizer is better, I cannot see why a smaller nation would give up a potentially better vaccine(true or not) on a 1 for 1 basis for anything other than financial reasons(they can’t afford the expensive one).

If they were to give up 1 for 1 due to finances, would they stand accused of putting lives at risk to save money.