I also wonder how much EU nations are currently stockpiling. If they are committed to an interval between doses of no more than 4 weeks, are they holding back doses to ensure that those already vaccinated are able to get their second dose within that 4-week period? You would think that they’d have to if supplies in the next few weeks are uncertain.
Either that or they’re going to have to abandon their 3-4 week interval policy. If they were to do that (officially change tack to an extended interval) then that might allow them to increase the number of people being vaccinated now (as we are doing).
Does anyone know what the current interval policy is for the Pfizer vaccine? My impression is that the UK extended the interval for that one as well but that may not be the case?
Just checked and we’re doing up to 12 week intervals for both AZ and Pfizer.
I think in the long-term the relationship is probably reasonably described with a linear model, but the early data points have a massive variance.
Don’t forget the projection problem here - the vaccines have fierce storage requirements. The best case scenario may be unlikely, but the logistical chain would still need to be prepared for it. The ‘as many as’ language does important work.
It really smacks of needing a scapegoat to me. At some point, the EC will be facing hard questions about strategy and execution. Why exactly did the EU not execute a contract with Moderna until what, November? Why was their AZ contract placed 3 months later than the UK’s? As the variants take hold and potentially drive a third wave, questions like that are going to become more pressing.
Sounds like Novavax’s vaccine is not far from approval now.
In the UK, that’s right. The UK ordered 60 million doses from Novavax last August (which will be made in the UK - Stockton-on-Tees) and should be approved by the UK regulator in the next week or two.
It was reported last week that the EU have not yet even finalised an order for Novavax.
The UK government has gambled well here again. About the only thing I think they’ve got 100% right throughout this.
Lets be honest they gambled on the vaccine being their “silver bullet” because they’ve not been able to manage it otherwise.
Yet again I hear Dildo Harding has stated that track and trace is not a silver bullet and here’s a special one. No one could have foreseen that the virus would mutate. Then of course we hear that Matt Hancock has watched the film Contagion, where guess what? The virus mutates. I’d even bet SAGE were kind of aware of that possibility.
100% agree on Dido Harding. A track record of failure that Chris Grayling might even be proud of. Weren’t they supposed to be doing something together? What a clusterfuck of incompetence that would be.
Kate Bingham, however, appears to have nailed it. Thank fuck.
Canada just signed a production deal for the Novavax vaccine, to add to the order placed in August. Domestic production not likely to be online before the end of the year. I am still somewhat puzzled why a similar deal was not put in place with AZ this past summer. Smacks of desperation, but at least that is motivating constructive response.
Astonishing that the EU would not be placing orders with every possible candidate for at least some level of supply. It is basic risk management, and rich countries financing the growth of global supply has to happen. A Novavax order now probably doesn’t get any vaccines into the EU until end of summer.
The UK gambled, but they also hedged their gamble effectively. In addition to the big bet on AZ, the UK had orders by October with Pfizer, Novavax, Janssen/J&J, and GSK/Sanofi. Two of those were winners. It appears that Novavax and Janssen will become relevant imminently. GSK/Sanofi for current purposes is irrelevant, there is no expectation that it will be available and approved before Fall 2021.
By contrast, the EU repeatedly uses the ‘broad portfolio’ idea, but in fact didn’t have one until December. The orders since November have given it a better portfolio. However, for current purposes, it has two.
The other thing that the UK did well here, imo, was accelerate the construction of the super factory (VMIC). That was already in the pipeline but when the coronavirus pandemic hit it was due for completion Summer 2022. The government threw a further £131m at the project to accelerate its completion, which is now due by the end of summer this year. That will significantly increase the UK production capacity.
But yes, funding development of vaccines, committing to a wide portfolio of potential vaccines with big orders early, using the emergency approval process, ensuring that the regulators had ongoing feedback during the trials, expanding the production facilities in the UK, and having the NHS - this is where it can come into its own with mass vaccinations of the public…all ticks.
In the fuck ups column we’ve got loads too though…
Fingers crossed we can break this thing with the vaccination program.
Yes but they also went early which I think has been the prime reason for the success along with spreading themselves. It’s as if they knew they had no other option.
Hard to speculate on the motivations - the technological fix has been the appealing one for both the UK and the US all along. But having six candidates with firm orders in place months before a single one was approved was undeniably the foundation of that success. Canada was slow, but has an even broader portfolio. The EU was both slow and narrow, right up until the first Phase 3 results were coming in. Absent behaving like the US, it is not surprising that their strategy is foundering.
That was said to be down to the widening of the order wasn’t it? 3 of the larger countries were ready to sign an agreement within a month of the UK doing so but it was put on hold .
For two months?!? Good thing nothing urgent like a global pandemic was happening.
It would have been trivial to negotiate an expandable staged delivery and make the commitment earlier. It would have had consequences for the timeline for the second tranche, but production would have been starting earlier.
I think AZ implied during the public spat last week that the difference between that deal and the one finally agreed two months later were virtually the same.
It would be interesting to know what sort of advice on was given on the timescales for introducing a vaccine, and on the production process.
I believe they are cancelling orders until they can get stock of the second dose in. I know Madrid is doing that for example. So probably a different definition of stockpiling than what you are referring to but stockpiling nonetheless.
The EU has already decided on a 4-12 week interval period for the AZ vaccine following the evidence from the trial and from the UK, while I can’t imagine they’d extend the Pfizer interval without data backing up its efficacy.
Give it 3 months and I suspect production will outstrip demand. That many new companies coming online with their own variants and the big boys ramping up, can see the 1st world (horrible phrase but it’s true) being pretty much done by summer.
Then of course we hear that Matt Hancock has watched the film Contagion, where guess what? The virus mutates. I’d even bet SAGE were kind of aware of that possibility.