I take it you mean cancelling vaccinations? Cancelling orders would be madness. Cancelling vaccinations still mad, but less so.
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You’re kidding aren’t you? Even the UK, which was fast out of the blocks and maintaining a very high pace (so far) will be lucky to be done by summer. I’m hoping I can get to go to the rescheduled West Indies test in September.
There will be a few smaller developed nations that will be done before us but the vast majority haven’t got a hope of being done in that timescale. The EU are targeting 70% of the adult population by 1 June. They’ve got no chance of meeting that.
It’s not just a question of there being enough supply by that date (quite possible) but it’s the logistics of getting that many people vaccinated in short order. The UK peak so far has been 1% of the adult population vaccinated in one day. The EU’s best day has been just over a tenth of that.
I actually think that a vaccine is the opus operatum of the UK government. Far easier to invest in a pill to fix a problem than actually managing the problem.
Some will likely disagree with that, but I dont think anyone could disagree that they had very little choice based on the UK’s figures for infections, deaths and the economy.
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I take it that is only 1 dose as if there were 1% of adult population vaccinated per day that means all adults in 100 days.Without speeding up that’s all adults by the start of may,quicker since there have already been about 10 million people vaccinated.Even at that speed both doses in adults should be complete by end of july,probably by the end of june.
Ah shit yes I meant first dose vaccinations being delayed by two weeks, to ensure they have both first and second doses on hand before they continue.
Yes, quite right - sorry. 1% receiving a jab/dose. It does give some protection at that point but for meaningful efficacy you’re right we’ll all need the 2nd one until Jansen becomes available.
Yes, that’s exactly what I meant then. They’re holding vaccine doses back to ensure that those already having received their first jab will be able to complete the course within the 4 week period - that speaks about concerns over the future deliveries of Pfizer then (they’ve managed to escape much media scrutiny, they must be thanking AZ for taking so much focus from them!).
If the EMA are giving the ok to increased intervals between the AZ jabs though that should help somewhat.
Just to show the intelligence of some
Tiktok covidiot berating a man of science.
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You’re lucky BJ isn’t as skeptical as you.
If 1% a day has been achieved then no less than 1% on average should be acceptable going forward. That means by end of July all adults in the UK will have received both doses.As things improve more people will be able to administer the vaccine, speeding it up which I think should have all of your people done by end of August. If nothing goes wrong that should be your target.
I agree, we should definitely aim high and I would also hope that we’re all done by August. Just in time, in fact, for those who got both doses at the beginning of this year to be vaccinated again against the new strains. And so it will go on.
The vaccine companies are going to end up taking all our money.
Don’t they always. I’ve mostly worked in pharma for over 30 years and the money they put into research and facilities is huge but only because the profits are multiples of that.
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I was thinking on this some more and I was wondering if the decision not to administer AZ to over 65,s is partly down to wanting a 2 pronged approach vaccination programme.
When the AZ vaccine comes online in the next few days under 65,s will be getting vaccinated at the same time as over 65,s will be getting the Pfizer vaccine.
Just wanted to give a personal message to say thank you to folks on the forum for your well wishes. Much appreciated!
My whole family had covid, me, wife, two teenage kids. Symptoms were relatively mild, so we are thankful for that. I had muscle aches and fatigue for a few days, and we all lost smell and taste.
No symptoms now for any of us, quarantine period over, and it is back to work and school (hybrid online and in person) as before.
I recognize for a lot of people it is much worse than that, so we feel lucky, and will continue to socially distance, wear masks, and all the rest of it as we try to get through this thing.
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I came across the following article, but I don’t remember if the it was posted by someone on this board earlier, or I stumbled across it via news aggregator. It provides a comprehensive list of vaccine in development, approved, or abandoned. Article was published on 1-Feb-2021.
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1st world mate, when were the EU ever in that? Have you been to France???
Seriously, based on my very limited exposure to the vax process, we’ll be going logarithmic with it in weeks. Plus I’ll bet private jabs will be available soon too, that will be like shooting fish in a barrel.
Plus I’ve booked seriously cheap flights for sunmer… Hope springs eternal Baldrick 
Production really can’t go truly logarithmic - too many constraining elements. The ramp-up so far is unprecedented, and actually quite impressive.
I also don’t think you are factoring the fact that the shots will be needed again in 6 months. The first UK recipients will need another round in May. Globally, that is 16 billion a year. Production right now is an order of magnitude off. It will increase, to be sure, but the struggles of AZ/Pfizer/Moderna show what a bumpy ride that could be. Realistically, the EU is not going to be done by September. Canada is not going to be done by September. The US is extremely unlikely at this stage, though still a possibility based on their delivery schedules.
At one point, I thought by July for me was possible, now I think it is unlikely before September.
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There will be no conspiracy theories about this. None at all.
OK, logarithmic is optimistic but given the ££££ being thrown at the issue, production and administration will go through the metaphorical roof. Just takes a re-purposing of a Tesla giga factory (once production is simplified) to churn out millions per day. Big problems need big solutions and all that.
Using the vaccination calculator for Canada, I will be vaccinated between late Sep-2021 and mid Apr-2022! Urgh, that is a long wait. The calculator does not include certain high-risk groups/individuals below the 65 age group though.
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Canada is a bit of an odd case though given that it has a population of 49 people who all live 6000 miles from each other.
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