Yeah, the only considerations for having tested positive are whether you still need to be isolation, or if you received antibodies as a treatment. For the former most the recommendations say you should it get it as soon as you are eligible and no longer have to isolate. For the latter they typically say 90 days after the last treatment.
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The Netherlands yesterday; 77.906 jabs, total for this week so far; 363.238.
And they will stop giving AZ again, now to people below 60.
Well, the whole point of the vaccine is to get you the antibodies against the virus. But if you’ve had it already, is it useful to get the ‘double dose’ so to say? I was also asking this because I’ve heard a story lately about a guy (didn’t know him personally, he was related to the family of a friend of my daughter) who got his jabs againt the virus, and died one week after his second one.
The autopsy revealed that the guy had died from covid-19. He was 90, so one could argue that his time had come anyway, but the timing is strange enough to establish a relationship with the effect of the vaccine. Of course, the statistic will see him listed as a victim of covid-19, not from the vaccine.
Yet you haven’t provided context for the below:
According to the QCovid app created by Oxford University and endorsed by NHS, a 75kg 35 year old white female without any underlying conditions - ie. a typical 35 yo European woman, has an absolute risk of being infected and dying of COVID of 1 in 142,857. (Doesn’t account for behaviour, occupation, infection rates or lockdown conditions)
From the data we have so far, the risk in Germany of having one of these rare and unique blood clots as a side-effect of the AZ vaccine is 1 in 87,000 (1) and the risk of death from said side-effect is 1 in 135,000 . From the Norwegian data, their risk of the blood clotting side-effect is 1 in 20,000 (2) and death from the side effect of 1 in 30,000. Keep in mind Norway has also had only 650 Covid deaths over the entire pandemic, so the risk of being infected and dying from Covid is even lower there.
So you can see the risk of death in these two countries for a healthy middle aged adult female is actually higher for this rare side-effect than from Covid.
If you are asking why I’m talking about a 35 year old woman, it’s because this is the demographic with the heightened risk of side effects. Can the risk of the vaccine be perceived as too great for an individual in this age category? Absolutely based on the risk being higher . Do we all have a responsibility to be vaccinated though to protect the at-risk categories and to beat the virus? Of course.
Just as we have modified our behaviour such as wearing masks in public to protect others, we should also be modifying how we weigh up risk in these times to protect others.
It would be nice though if the risks for this age category were correctly represented on here.
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Why would it be anything else? The vaccine cannot give you Covid. What this demonstrates is 1) the longevity of natural immunity is still not known and so prior infection is not something to rely on for ongoing immunity 2) the vaccines take time to produce a complete immune response.
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Haven’t paid much attention to the Corona situation in Bangladesh in recent months. Since we are going into lockdown, I felt curious and here’s some key figures:
- Infections (by official count) started to peak again from early March.
- Detected cases in last seven days (including today) 38,000+.
- Confirmed deaths in last seven days (including today) 350+.
- Detection rate is very high, 20-25%.
The vaccine won’t give you covid of course. But could it be that if you are already affected by covid, and then get the jab, it becomes too much for the immune system to fight off?
Worth noting there are some people who have had Covid and dont have anti bodies.
There’s also a big question on how long you have anti bodies for.
Variants is also an issue.
It depends how you split the numbers. There is a normal background level of 5-15 cases/million/year. So every year in the UK you would expect 330-990 cases a year. Or basically 1-2 cases per day in the UK. Given high association of Covid and clotting this number this year could be much higher. There is reasonable possibility that 30 UK cases could occur by chance. Or at least a significant proportion of these occurred are unconnected.
So the stats at first glimpse seem heavily weighted towards one demographic. But what is natural distribution? It’s inherently higher in younger woman taking the pill (naturally before vaccine). For some reason in Norway they gave 4/5ths of the AZ to women. Which skews interpretation and reporting. It’s not really a surprise that side effects are attributed to women, when you give it basically only give the vaccine to women. Or when the natural background level in the population is skewed to women.
How many of the these people had underlying conditions ? Did they have other autoimmune disorders ?
The UK has had a much more balanced distribution of vaccine (age and sex). Although distribution of those 30 clot cases is yet to be released, it’s been reported by BBC and FT that it appears not to a particular group.
Then there are the numbers of deaths. 4 in Norway, 9 in Germany and 7 in the UK. These are very low absolute numbers given there is a background prevalence in the population. The odds significance is highly effected by just 1 or 2 cases. The odds changing by orders of magnitude of just 2 people in Norway.
Let’s say Germany has the best data. 2.7M people vaccinated with AZ vaccine. Let’s say 100% of cases due to vaccine. Let’s say deaths are normally distributed including preexisting conditions. For every million people you would expect 4 people to die from clots.
For every million 30 year olds, you would expect 180 to 500 to die from Covid. If they get infected.
For every million 40 year olds your would expect 500 to 2000 to die from Covid, if they get infected.
My numbers are from the British Medical journal published a few months ago.
It might be temping for those in Norway to say, I will not have the vaccine take the risk. We have had low incidence here. However at some point the world opens up, and we are seeing a third wave across Europe. One reported to be more deadly and more easy to transmit. Latest variants affecting younger people. It’s a big gamble not to get vaccinated. No different to measles hotspots at schools where parents don’t get kids vaccinated. We talk about the British variant, next week could be the Canadian or Moroccan variant which could be worse. Hypotheticals I know. But ones with reasonable possibility. If your going to wait for another vaccine your risk becomes the period of time between the two vaccines (maybe 6 months) and then taking a vaccine with different side effects.
Also consider the actual sickness itself. It’s fucking horrible for a lot of people. Recent study in the UK suggest as many as 60,000 people have long Covid. Matt Hancock described how there are numerous people suffering 6 months on, and it is prevalent amount younger people. Lots of people will be left permanently disabled. The UK is already approaching half the population becoming vaccinated (I know significant proportion phizer). But one one hand we are taking about tens of thousands suffering long Covid. On the other hand we are talking about tens of people suffering clots.
That’s in a population were far more people have been vaccinated than had Covid.
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Just to add, there is the importance of getting vaccinated for others.
That’s the messaging over here. Don’t get vaccinated for yourself, get vaccinated for your family. Getting vaccinated helps save their lives.
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I don’t understand it right now, it’s not about whether you get vaccinated or not, I completely agree that everyone should get vaccinated, it’s just about which vaccine you get. Just because under 60s in some countries no longer get AZ, everyone there will still be vaccinated. They will now get Pfizer or Moderna etc. It’s simply that the vaccines are allocated differently, that’s not a problem.
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Confidence is like glass, easy to break difficult to put back together.
The messaging by different groups in January/February was it was not safe or effective for over 65s. The message in march March and April is it’s not safe for under 65s. That messaging has long lasting consequences. Irrespective of age group there will be hesitancy taking AZ vaccine. People preferring to wait for another option, or put off any vaccine at all. Currently in Europe it’s a hodgepodge of different advice. Nordic countries blocking it entirely, Iceland giving it to over 70s, while Spain has only just just changed from recommending it to under 65s only. Having relied upon EMA, the EMA is now ignored.
Second issue is cost. Many poorer European countries have not taken up optionality to purchase the more expensive vaccines (share not distributed evenly across European nations). In Germany might be easy to give phizer vaccine to under 65s. In many countries that is not true.
Third issue is politics. Do the EU continue to push and demand more vaccines from AZ if many of its countries advocating only a fraction of their population vaccinated with AZ?
The ultimate consequence is more people will likely be affected, due to increased logistics, increased dependence on alternative supply chains, and increased hesitancy.
Dr. Michael Warner, medical director of critical care at Michael Garron Hospital in Toronto, says the current restrictions are not enough to protect people who are getting sick in the third wave of the pandemic. Warner says the provincial framework won’t stop young people from getting sick and ending up in intensive care units. With permission, Dr. Warner spoke of one patient in particular who was very ill. She has since died.
He gave another emotional interview much later this evening that even the news anchor had some difficulties keeping her emotion in check… Once available, I’ll post it.
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Once the child has fallen into the well (as we say) , you can only regain trust through absolute openness and transparency and not with countless embellished reports and propaganda. Understanding and educating the population achieves much more than patronizing or trying to evoke feelings of guilt etc.
It seems to work well for us (fingers crossed) as there is now a huge rush of over 60s on the vaccination centers who now take the opportunity to be vaccinated with AZ. Everything is not always black or white.
Someone who was an anti vaccer before will still be against it, unfortunately that will be probably difficult to change.
In my opinion, if there is any chance to convince this group of people, then it can only be done through absolute honesty, understanding and disclosure of all facts. So much is at stake.
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Anti - Vaxxers - watch this 90 - second video.
Flip it’s only 9 clot deaths in Germany. I had read 19. That conversion rate is a little more reassuring than 19. Certainly the risk of 1 in 135,000 I calculated is much lower with only 9 deaths. Though still in the same ballpark as COVID risk for a young/middle adult.
We are about to go around in circles but aside from Macron, no-one has said it’s ineffective in over 65’s. Not sure who you are referring to that said it’s not safe for over 65s?
Not at all shocked that the figures you’ve presented so as to ‘set the record straight’ are wrong, nor am I surprised that you leave your post uncorrected.
Wouldn’t it just.
Several officials insinuated that AstraZeneca was unsafe simply by virtue of the speed with which the MHRA approved it. Quotes already given in this thread some time ago.