The lab is in Wuhan because of the accessibility of animal coronaviruses. If there was ever a novel coronavirus outbreak this is exactly where we’d predict it was likely to come from.
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Curevac is very important (particularly for the UK) in protecting against new Variants of Concern.
Zeynep’s comments don’t really contradict that though. Scientists when putting their money on one idea will still almost always acknowledge that another idea could be true. The lab genesis cannot be ruled out, but there is ample to reason to believe the zoonotic genesis.
That’s precisely what I’m saying… 
It, along with zoonotic genesis, remains a viable possibility.
Sorry, I dont think the quoting was clear. You posted Zeynep’s comments in response to ISMF saying that backing the lab genesis is a minority opinion. Her comments about it being considered viable do not contradict what he said.
I just felt that ismf’s comment, “There are few respected scientists who do not believe it’s origins are natural.” was too strong a claim.
There are many respected scientists (probably the majority) who have not reached any conclusion one way or the other, with many considering both zoonotic genesis and lab escape to be viable options. It’s not that they have formed a clear conclusion on it either way - further enquiry is needed.
So carry on getting tattoos, haircuts, waxing, nails done, shopping but…stay outside for pint.
Madness.
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So do the vaccines provide any protective properties in the first couple of weeks after inoculation? I thought the standard was 21 days after injection and at best, 2 weeks? If so, how is this surge vaccination programme going to work in Blackburn? I mean, it might be better than doing nothing, but I would have thought the virus would have got a massive foothold in before the vaccines even start becoming effective? 2 weeks is a long time during a COVID-19 surge.
Not sure where to put the following article to… Indirectly related to the pandemic, a sad but also a heart warming story at the same time.
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In Bangladesh
- The new/Indian variant is silently but swiftly making headway.
- Depleted vaccine stock/supply-chain means only enough for those registered for the second jab.
- 5-6 mil people moved to the villages for Eid vacation and will return to the cities in a week’s time.
All combined, we are looking at another surge and deadly one at that.
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from the keepers of the Doomsday Clock, originating with Einstein and Oppenheimer
FFS, not this again.
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I’m not reading it again.
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To give a bit of backstory to the article to give it a bit more context. Its largely based upon an article written by Rossana Segreto published 2 weeks ago. Thats the primary source for much the article and the more coherent scientific bits are lifted directly from there (published in Environmental Chemistry Letters)
I think its worth noting that she is a member of DRASTIC. A twitter formed group advocating conspiracy theories on COVID. She is a lab assistant with expertise in fungi. Fellow authors on the team are a rag tag bunch. One has an MBA, two and PhDs in Neuroscience, another is a medical doctor whose specialism is incontinence. A couple of others seemingly could not get authorisation from their place of work or are unemployed.
The reason I highlight this is to illustrate is that like Nicolas Wade, proponents of the lab release theory are frequently on the fringes of the scientific community. All voices and commentary are not equal. They have been advocating and pushing the lab release theory since the start of the pandemic.
The WHO report investigating origins published last month stated “In view of the above, a laboratory origin of the pandemic was considered to be extremely unlikely.”
Some of the reasons why can be illustrated in the figure below.
On the right hand side you can see the family tree. The ones in red are Covid-19 detected in China. Notice that there is quite a diversity of different coronaviruses. Length of arm indicates genetic distance. There is natural diversity. A diversity found in many countries (recently Japan and Cambodia have found similar varients).
The closest one that has been sequenced in bats is RaTG13 (also in red). Importantly if you look at the graph (blue line) the variation is dispersed throughout the genome. lots of little changes right throughout, rather than a targeted genetic engineering, where a section of DNA has been changed.
There is no known lab variation closer that has ever been sequenced. So to extend the logic either some kind of random mutagenesis, thas been used to directly evolve it (not really viable, and ethically and scientifically questionable approaches for a pathogen) or that there is some naturally closer variant that has never been disclosed and there was a cover up. Most that advocate a lab based origin believe that there was a natural closer variant that they were working with in the lab. There is no evidence of this but lets presume its true. There is a hypothesis that a mutation was introduced into key regions eg the spike protein.
The counter to this is these variations do occur naturally in other varients/strains of coronavirus. In the case of RaTG13 you are half way there. Pangolin‐derived CoV has the identical receptor binding domain. It really is not that unlikely it could have occurred naturally. Two viral genomes can co-infect the same host cell and exchange genetic segments.
Those that live near the caves in China naturally contain antibodies to conronavirus. This shows there always was a risk, either directly or indirectly. The binding is not specific to humans, but also applies to various animals, suggesting that the ancestor of SARS‐CoV‐2 is likely passed through animals. Even recently mine workers were treated for coronavirus (Not covid-19) after performing work. Other mineworkers in china died 8 years ago after clearing feces from caves. 20 years ago we had coronavirus SARS (from Bats),10 years ago we had MERS a coronavirus from camels. In retrospect its not that surprising what has occurred.
It could have come from a lab, its true. But its extremely unlikely (requires the jump into conspiracies, cover ups, destroying material). That seems to be the consensus view in the scientific community. There is a high likelihood it just occurred naturally. In the interconnected world we live in, it just exploded.
There is no evidence of any staff being infected, containment loss, or that the labs were substandard in any way. Wades comments that scientists hate working at biosafety levels 3 and 4 and that standard are lax (preferring to work in conditions closer to that of a dentist), is just misrepresenting reality. Also shows a lack of understanding of what designates the different safety levels.
Sorry for the rant, but while I agree labs should be investigated. The odds of it being the lab are negliable. With those looking for evidence to support a theory. When the world has a history of pandemics and it was always going to happen sooner or later.
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147.675 jabs on Thursday in the Netherlands. Over 7m now. 
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204,912 first doses
Total now 36,320,867
69% of adult population
379,111 second doses
Total now 19,698,121
37.4% of adult population
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The Netherlands, after some initial problems:
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France reached its goal Saturday of 20 million initial doses of coronavirus vaccines, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Twitter, days ahead of a hugely anticipated reopening of restaurant terraces as the government begins lifting a nationwide lockdown.
As with Germany this just feels far too early to be lifting lockdowns.
The UK had done 20 million first doses by 27 February but didn’t start to come out of lockdown until the end of March, we’re still only gradually opening up now.
France has had 100,000 new cases in the last week, a level the UK last experienced in the middle of February. It’s had 1,322 deaths in the last seven days, equivalent to where the UK was at two months ago.
At a time when the Indian variant may well be starting to circulate in Europe this just feels a bit premature.
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