Im starting to feel quite pessimistic again.
One paper last week showed that there are pronounced decreases in immunity in approx 50% of people 2 months after the second Moderna shot (as in unmeasurable levels of a key neutralizing molecule), despite remaining near complete in the rest of the population. How do you know if you’re in the 50%? You don’t.
Now today, release of still unpublished data, with the mRNA vaccines showing marked decrease in effectiveness against transmission of Delta in Delta hot spots.
So basically I am 4 months post second vaccine and yet I have every reason to doubt my ability to be in public without becoming a carrier.
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Yes, I heard that on the radio yesterday. Basically they have hardly any effect on minimising Delta transmission. Great.
Around 50% at the low end. It’s better than nothing, but in the context of the outbreak we’re seeing in places like Florida and the number of still unvaccinated, it’s now highly likely that people like me will get it unless I take additional precautions.
This insanity surely has to stop at some point, right. Right?? Unbelievable how it’s taken over such a large proportion of people. A combination of instant connectivity, fake news and social media with a healthy dose of fuckwittery all round.
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I’d love to ask them what they lost by wearing a mask. From a safe distance.
There’s a part of me that regrets my feelings that these people aren’t really to blame for this when I see scenes like this.
New variants, regular boosters and probably more restrictions it is then 
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I’ve had a lingering question the last couple of months on here about how the vaccines will cope as restrictions are lifted and it becomes easier for the virus to pass between close contacts.
A comparison that I keep getting drawn to is radiation sickness. If you get a mild dose, perhaps a treatment like Potassium Iodide might be a highly effective treatment to avoid severe sickness compared to doing nothing. But getting a heavy dose and there won’t be any treatment to save you.
Similarly, I’ve asked the question about how the vaccines will limit transmission of covid once we are closer to each other and the risks of larger viral loads are greater. The vaccines are likely going to do a great job if we keeping apart and there is minimal viral particles for us to take in. But if we are in each other’s personal space then an infected person has a good chance of passing it on to a vaccinated or an unvaccinated person. Just that the unvaccinated person probably will have limited ways of putting up barriers to those heavy viral loads (your cheese analogy comes to mind) so will have a harder time of the infection.
IMO there’s nothing to see here really. It was a long shot that the vaccines would be highly effective at limiting transmission. But while they are still pretty effective at stopping severe cases there is hope.
I still question though how we’ll get through the winter months without some form of distancing limitation here in the UK. I’m a little scared that our leaders will avoid that for as long as possible until it’s too late ( like last time, and the time before that, and the time before that)
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It also raises interesting questions for countries like Australia and New Zealand.
We are basically aiming to have as much of the population vaccinated as possible by Christmas. For me though I cant see travel returning to normal till 2023. The zero covid strategy has served as well.
I dont think there is the economic incentive for us to open up. Or even the desire from the public.
At some point though normality will need to be phased in. But what that looks like is anyone’s guess.
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I’ve heard of some kidney transplant recipients needing 4 shots to get the immunity levels up. Can’t say if they’ve actually had 4 shots though.
As far as vaccinations are concerned, Singapore is tracking well, even including those 450K below 12 which we cannot vaccinate now, we are on track to vaccinate 80% by early September of the total population including this group which we cannot vaccinate. And right now we are in Transition Stage A as we take step by step the reopening (compared to the Big Bang strategy the UK took) as seen in the article. Whatever strategy each country takes, the hope is eventually everyone stays healthy and our lives can get back on track as much it could. But even for someone like myself, life would probably never be the same again. YNWA!
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Really interesting article in the FT about Israel.
Israel seen as early indicator. 78% of those eligible have been vaccinated. Vaccine had huge effect on suppression but not the same on delta.
From zero on June 9 — new Covid infections twice hovered near 6,000 this week, the highest daily rate in six months.
from the advertised 94 per cent protection from asymptomatic infections against the then-dominant Alpha variant, to as low as 64 per cent against the now-dominant Delta variant.
Even though the unvaccinated were five to six times as likely to end up seriously ill, the vaccine’s protection was waning fastest for the oldest — the most vulnerable — who got their fist jabs as early as December.
At this rate, health officials predicted at least 5,000 people would need hospital beds by early September, half of them with serious medical needs, twice as many as Israel is equipped to handle
To combat this booster shots for future will be the norm.
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Booster shots but also we’ll see vaccines specifically targeted at Delta very soon.
One single case of community transmission in New Zealand and we are going into lockdown (level 4).
The positive case was detected at lunchtime, and the government decided to lockdown from midnight.
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Over 5000 kids and school staff already quarantined after only 4 days of school and we’re still fighting against masking rules.
We announced last week an official approval of Pfizer as a booster for immunocompromised people as they likely did not get a complete response to the full regimen. We’re now signaling that both Pfizer and Moderna are going to be approved for standard 8-month boosters for everyone. I’ve been reluctant to support this, but there is now a fair amount of good data on what appears to be waning effectiveness of the vaccine in a significant portion of the population.
The kicker here is there is also data that a mixed vaccine approach produces the most robust immune response, but there is still no indication of J&J being included in the booster approval and none that AZ is going to get approved at all.
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But AZ not being approved doesn’t matter as I remember, as if other countries approve it, it should be OK. Paraphrasing I know but you posted similar to my concerns months ago.
I think you’re mixing up two things. It won’t be fatal for people travelling to the US but the US cannot inoculate its own citizens with a vaccine that isn’t FDA approved.
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It matters when talking about what options are available to me. It is not approved here so cannot be legally provided to anyone outside of an approved research study. I’m keeping my eye out for these and will travel, but in the absence of that am going to try to find J&J, but those are fairly short supply here as well.
I think what you’re referring to is my thought that the US is unlikely to take a negative view on foreigners coming here who have been vaccinated with AZ just because that vaccine is not approved here. One, I dont think we (The US) will get to a place where we’re using individual vaccine passports that look at the type of vax used. But two, AZ’s status here is reflective of the absence of a review not of a negative review, and the fact that agencies it works closely with have approved it will count for a lot.
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