Nope. But @Kopstar mentioned that he thinks the UK government is seeking herd immunity through both transmission and vaccination before Winter. He’s probably right whether by design or not. I’d say that Johnson thinks the pandemic is over and has basically moved onto other things.
I thought we’d more or less established by now that immunity through transmission wasn’t a thing?
On its own, you’re right. Combined with high vaccination rates it’s more realistic.
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Yeah. I guess we’re looking at the un-vaccinated kids / younger population. Those that are more likely to have a mild disease and develop some antibodies.
There’s a kind of twisted sense to it but given who’s leading it I say that with a huge pinch of salt, reservation and nervousness.
Are there increased risks of a new variant like this?
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I would think so. You’re basically allowing a virus a free run at mutating.
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It’s how it’s fluxuating that I think is conserning. It’s like there’s events that repeat something like schools opening and closing (though it can not be that (they were on holiday).
yep I think it’s a function of timing and opening the gates too wide at the wrong time etc.
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I’ve seen that due to waning efficacy, in Israel you lose your vaccine passport once you’re past 6 months post 2nd jab. So it’s all about being triple jabbed, and I assume it won’t stop there now.
At the same time, weekly deaths in Europe have grown 10% on average, whereas in the UK they’ve fallen 16%. That places the UK 36th out of 47 in the current trajectory of death rates. 22 countries out of those 47 are experiencing increases in those who have died over the last 7 days compared with the previous 7 days.
For comparison:
Poland is 10th (+43%)
France is 33rd (-15%)
Italy is 34th (-15%)
Germany is 40th (-26%)
Spain is 41st (-30%)
[Slovakia is the worst at +223%. Finland, Luxembourg and San Marino all recording 0 deaths over the last 7 days so -100%]
Vast majority are Pfizer in Israel aren’t they? I think AZ efficacy hasn’t shown the same degree of decrease?
Yes re first part, no idea re. second part.
At least in most countries the graphs look ‘normal’!
Surprisingly, Moderna seems to be holding up pretty well from a brief google search. Data also indicates that those who had their AZ jabs spaced out retained a stronger immune response. Also, there will still be strong residual protection from B-cells and T-cells, which apparently are the ‘memory’ cells that help to produce antibodies when they recognise an old foe.
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Oh it absolutely is. For most infections it’s typically robust and long lasting, and there is some data (much heralded on the right, but with significant limitations in the study design) that suggests it is more protective that vaccine alone.
The issue is that natural infection is not a pathway to achieving a herd immunity threshold as it just doesnt happen quickly or predictably enough. And of course comes with immense suffering. While it is pretty clear that immunity is further enhanced for those who have already caught it by getting vaccinated anyway (meaning that just because youve had it is no reason not to get the shot), there is a good case to argue that prior infection should factor in as a vaccine equivalent when talking about herd immunity thresholds, or even vaccine passports.
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A country who were once heralded as the gold standard for national vaccination campaigns.
This is correct. But also needs to be balanced against the fact that initial effectiveness was highest with this jab giving it father to fall. One of the other interesting things is there is some evidence that a strict 1 month window between first and second dose is associated with a less resolute response, and so some of the countries who focused on maximizing first doses and thus pushed out second doses have backed into a situation of more sustained immunity for their vaccinated.
For the talk of boosters now, I’m trying to hold off until we get J&J approved for boosters. I think the data is pretty clear that hybrid models of immunity (infection plus shot, mrna shot plus adenovector shot) of broader and more long lasting than multiple exposures to the same thing. As that isnt likely to happen any time soon, it also means I push out the window from the minimum 6 month mark which again seems to be associated with a greater long term response.
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That wasn’t unforeseen though. There were many experts that endorsed the UK’s approach to extended dosing intervals who said that not only was it important to give as many people their first shot as quickly as possible but that also the extended dosing regimes was quite likely to provide stronger and longer lasting protection.
Aye. It was always a reasonable expectation, just one without data to support it for this vaccine. So it was more of a potential added benefit than a real justification for approaching it that way. Ultimately the argument came down to how quickly you think you can vaccinate everyone. If you dont think you can do it quickly enough, meaning NPIs have to be in place for a long time anyway, then it makes sense to focus on broad coverage for the first shot before giving the second shot. But still a brave decision that is done in violation of the tested protocols. I think you can still argue that an action was irresponsible even if it ends up with a good outcome and the person making the decision had reasonable basis to make it.
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