Our federal office of public health publishes all kinds of statistics about covid. One of them is to look at hospitalization rates according to the vaccination status.
I’ve had a look at it recently, and interestingly, since around the beginning of March, those most at risk of being hospitalized are those who are vaccinated and have received a further booster dose, and by quite a large margin.
Before that date, unvaccinated people were most at risk, as expected, but since then (and probably the full establishment of Omicron as dominant variant), it’s not the case anymore, as shown on the graph if you follow that link:
I wonder how this is possible. At a guess, I’d say it’s because we have almost 100% of old and fragile people vaccinated (with the booster), and with this variant, which isn’t as aggressive as Delta, younger healthy people are much less at risk of being hospitalized. Older, more fragile people will still be hospitalized because the vaccines aren’t 100% efficient, and that’s how you get this odd statistic.
Often the most intuitive way of looking at data produces a misleading story. We have seen that over and over again during Covid.
For example, the most intuitive comparison to assess the effectiveness of the vaccine is to compare the total number of hospitalization in vaccinated people to unvaccinated. What that has typically shown is more vaccinated than unvaccinated people are hospitalized, which intuitively signals the vaccines “dont work.” However, when the size of the comparison groups are different you have to factor that in
Original comparison
10 vaccinated hospitalization vs 5 unvaccinated hospitalizations
Weighted Comparison
10 vaccinated hospitalizations out of 1000 vaccinated individuals vs 5 unvaccinated hospitalization out of 50 unvaccinated individuals
That second comparison shows the measurement that is actually important - 1 hospitalization per 100 vs 1 per 10. In these made up figures it shows how something can produce 10 times more protection from an outcome while still resulting in more people in that group being affected by the outcome
Likewise, characteristics of the groups being compared are often different and that can bring into effect something called Simpson’s Paradox. This was something that came to the fore recently when the NYT’s belligerently covid contrarian tried to claim that covid mortality had become higher in white people than in black people (the underlying argument being that too much focus was placed on race per se rather than a colour blind view of the resources people had). This observation was technically true, but falsely interpreted due to overlooking a a concept that is really an introductory concept in biostats
It also shows that, while cases are predominantly mild, the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis might be lower when the second dose is given more than 30 days after the first dose.
However, the researchers warn that, in general, the evidence is of low certainty and say these findings must be considered alongside the overall benefits of vaccination.
Anecdotally, but my family knows a college aged male who got myocarditis after being vaccinated. A colleague of mine knows the same kid, and readily cites this example as a reason why he has refused to be vaccinated.
If anecdote fits their priors, absolutely. This isnt a case of someone being on the fence and convinced by a piece of data, it is a case of someone making up their mind then scrambling for any evidence for why they were right to do it. One might provide the evidence that people in this population who have a relatively increased risk of myocarditis from the shot have a greater risk of the same outcome from infection, but it wouldnt matter, because this isnt really why they are abstaining from getting the shot.
That is not to say that people like this are helpless, but that if you want to reach them you have to figure out what the real source of their reluctance is, and in my experience that often based in something a million miles from the issue at hand.
Definitely agree, of course medicine needs to be scientific not anecdotal.
My colleague is a mystery to me, though not unrepresentative of a sizable minority here in the States. College educated, lucid, professional… pretty right wing, prone to misinformation on the internet (he would strongly disagree with that) particularly with regard to the sort of talking points you might see stressed on Fox News.
There are many millions like him here. They know what the CDC says, and the recommendation, but regrettably often obfuscate all that by citing their own bogus sources, making it seem like they have half a point.
They don’t have a good viewpoint, but this sort of thing is a well known phenomenon and is a big part of why America has so many dead from covid, when the world class scientific and medical community here were well placed to have made the outcomes we have seen far less severe, but unfortunately they are but one voice in a cacophony of noise for many people.
Omicron BA.5 everywhere now, brother and his whole family down. Did something stupid last Sunday night, most risk taken through the entire pandemic. Woke up Wednesday with a sore throat and a runny nose. Still heavily congested.
However, I have taken 3 tests now. Negative each time…just a friggin’ cold. How does that happen? Amazing viruses to just keep rolling on.
Some positive on 2nd booster…Unfortunately, the CDC article did not mention the effectiveness of 2nd booster against the dominant strain BA.5.
With the first booster, vaccine effectiveness against these variants was only 68 percent (lower than against previous variants) and declined to 52 percent effectiveness after six months. With the second vaccine, effectiveness against these variants climbed to 80 percent within the first six months. Data is not yet available for effectiveness after six months.
Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) should continue to be monitored in the setting of newly emerging sublineages and variants, including Omicron sublineages BA.4 and BA.5, which became predominant in the United States in late June 2022. Eligible adults should stay up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccinations, including a first booster dose for all eligible persons and second booster dose for adults aged ≥50 years. Booster doses should be obtained immediately when persons become eligible.
It’s most like the CDC simply dont have those data. The ability to collect these data cannot keep up with the pace of new strains so all we can do is extrapolate based on real world data. We have seen there isn’t great antibody response against these new strains even from people recently infected with an earlier Omicron strain. We can therefore assume that a booster with the original shot isnt going to provide anywhere as much protection against this new strain as we’ve seen with previous shots. Unfortunately, it looks like the new strain specific boosters wont be rolled out until likely October. I’m probably going to wait until then and evaluate where we are with new strains then.
Got my second booster, headed down to FL for a week on holiday. Hopefully it adds some protection and I won’t get BA 5. Not sure what the strain was that I caught in early May when traveling, but the symptoms from that one were very mild - cold symptoms for a day, maybe a little fatigue for another day or two, but essentially fine.
The researchers conclude that COVID-19 infection is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disorders and diabetes, but fortunately, there does not appear to be a long-term increase in the incidence of these conditions for patients who have contracted the virus. Based on these findings, they recommend that doctors advise their patients who are recovering from COVID-19 to reduce their risk of diabetes through a healthy diet and exercise.
