The Middle East Thread

Several senior Syrian and Iranian military officials killed in a suspected Israeli strike in Damascus.

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They must have been Hamas.

After all, that’s all Israel is targeting.

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I don’t think Netanyahu has ever been aligned with Biden, nor vice versa. Biden’s conundrum is supporting Israel but not Netanyahu, and Netanyahu is making that harder and harder.

Yeah , they’ve known each other for a very long time and I don’t think there’s much love lost between the two , particularly after Netanyahu’s little stunt adressing Congress during the Obama administration. Which brings into question why Biden felt the need to rush out there straight after Oct 7 and give Netanyahu carte blanche to embark upon his inevitable revenge mission. Biden sunk so much political capital into the US response and is reaping the whirlwind now , in an election year no less , that you really have to question his judgement on this one.

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Speaking strictly in US domestic political terms, I don’t think he had a great deal of choice. Where he is right now isn’t great, but if he were to give the Republicans that stick to beat him with, it would have been disastrous. The voters who are angry with Israel have nowhere to go. Their choices are between a White House that is wringing its hands while looking for a seemingly non-existent resolution, and a GOP that in some quarters openly advocates ethnic cleansing. Their choice is to not vote at all, at which point you do the numbers to figure out where those voters are, and realize they are overwhelmingly in places that Biden doesn’t need them to win, he already has strong margins. His Hobson’s choice is to deal with a Democratic caucus that is splitting, but they are keenly aware of the same dynamic.

Personally , he must be kicking himself though. He now faces the very real prospect of being deemed complicit in an action that might soon be ruled a genocide by an international court. That’s one hell of a blot on his copybook.

The UN and its organs are an easy target in American politics, particularly vis-a-vis Israel. The fact that Israel has been condemned by the General Assembly more than all other countries put together in any given year makes an easy rhetorical point. An ICJ ruling in favour of South Africa’s case is just another veto at the Security Council.

That’s the point Obama should have realized to apply the brake. But it’s now hindsight.

Agree. But the alarm bells have been ringing since November and still Biden didn’t scale back,

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I think that oversimplifies the fairly complicated dynamic between the White House and Netanyahu. The US has been sending all sorts of signals that it disapproves of the intensity/scale/etc, which Israel has been ignoring with more and more obvious evasion. Netanyahu’s firm statement that the two-state solution is not going to happen is the end product of that dance, and now puts Biden in the most difficult position (politically speaking) he has been in on this matter - because there is now absolutely no concept of a peaceful resolution in play. Israel’s prime ministers and American presidents have put a great deal of effort in the past to avoid arriving at this crossroads.

The signals from the White House were too late and too weak, and were never backed-up by any actions. Israel/Bibi was/is safe in the knowledge that USA will keep supporting his actions, actively or passively. All that emboldened him to the point of recklessness.

Israel/Bibi is possibly confident that USA will directly support him in case of a large-scale engagement with Hezbollah. USA must make it explicitly clear that he will be on his own.

The simple fact of the matter is Israel won’t be in the case of an engagement with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is far less complicated for Biden than Gaza.

Gaza death-toll has passed the 25,000 threshold. Another 7000-10,000 are missing, presumed dead and buried under the rubble.

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I did mention before that the total number of deaths as a result of this conflict(when it’s finally done( could well be in the 200k region.

I’ll stand by my estimate. The longer Israel continues the oppression, the lesser supplies getting through and factor in the deaths due to diseases etc.

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Annalena Baerbock

We clearly see that the people of Israel and the entire region will not be able to live in peace if Hamas’ terror is not ended, if Hamas finally stops its brutal attacks not only on Israel, but also de facto against its own people, against the Palestinians.

Yes, Hamas killed those 25,000 people in Gaza. Yes, Hamas is systematically obstructing the flow of aids to Gaza. Yes, Hamas killed several hundred Palestinians in West Bank, Yes, Hamas has imprisoned several thousand Palestinians in West Bank, Yes, Hamas killed Iranian, Syrian, Lebanese figures across the border.

Bloody moron, and you expect Hamas support will wither in the region.

Meanwhile…

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Hostage families in Israel have stormed a sitting commitee of the Knesset. It is becoming brutally plain to them that their relatives are the price Netanyahu is willing to pay for the extermination of Hamas.

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It’s actually much worse than that. Netanyahu knows that the complete defeat of Hamas is an impossibility , his own generals have told him. His entire political career , and quite possibly his liberty , now depends upon the continuance of military action. I don’t think getting the hostages out was ever foremost in his plans and it certainly won’t be a consideration if a ceasefire is the price he must pay for it.

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More psychopaths, and they don’t get sanctioned by the West.

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Israel is reportedly offering Hamas a 60-day ceasefire in return for releasing all the hostages.

Israel, apparently, proposed building an island in the Mediterranean to resettle the Palestinians. They have actually presented this to the EU foreign ministers yesterday. :laughing:

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It sounds like they were dreaming up something one step more insane than the Madagascar Plan.