The Middle East Thread

The US sees Israel as something bigger than its current leader and government. International relationships are not something to be thrown away on the back present day misalignment with the current leaders, as the US now has first hand experience of being on the other side of things (trump). However what the US has utterly failed to grapple with is that Bibi is not an aberration but a manifestation of a shift in Israeli politics in general. For all our allies who despaired at having to deal with trump there was a Biden as a coming alternative. For Bibi there is Ben Givir who while he lacks the toxicity that comes from past snubs, is no better in terms of policy and attitude towards Palestine.

At some point those in government in the us need to understand this is not the Israel of the 60s, and I think a big part of that is the gerontocracy that is our government. The attitudes of the younger class of politicians and those of the largely geriatric leadership are very different, almost certainly in large part because those younger people were raised in a context of Israel being a dominant power in the region not some plucky upstart that needed our help to survive

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2000 acres, thatā€™s 8 skm. :laughing:

But remember: this offensive is all about eliminating Hamas and absolutely nothing to do with a land grab.

Honest.

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US Senate passes bill to suspend contribution to UNRWA for a year. :clap:

Shudder to think how bad things will get under Republicans if the majority democrat senate got this through

All the more reason I think US has given Israel the tacit approval to implement its plan. Even more so now.

Biden can do the posturing all he wants but I still donā€™t believe Israel would go against US had it not been for a secret agreement of sorts.

Right. No Israeli politician can afford to take anything other than the current line in order for survival (both political or otherwise).

Again Israel grabbing as much of land as they can before the inevitable ceasefire.

Itā€™s like the Chinese going forward 2km into the Indian side of the border and then retreating 1.6km. the net gain becomes the new status quo

And if Israel is going forward against the advice of Biden , whatā€™s stopping another US ally to do a similar military misadventure ?

Biden is being seen as a lightweight inconsequential leader at this point of time (worldwide opinion atleast).

I do think all this will invariably result in the Gaza citizens being evicted to refugee camps in Egypt.

A lot depends on when Sisi gets the funds to set those refugee camps up.

Since establishing Israel post WWII it has gone from plucky underdog to dominant regional power.

The lesson of history is that if there is no check and balance to the power, then the most powerful group will take what it wants. And will then keep on taking.

A brief glance at the maps over the years show the Palestinians getting squeezed out, and thatā€™s what is going on here. More of the West Bank is being annexed, and the Gaza Strip will belong to Israel when this sordid chapter is over. Thats my expectation.

The last enclaves of Palestinians will be made even more vulnerable, as the West Bank annexation gains more impetus.

America created modern day Israel by arming it and funding it. But the underdog has grown up and is quite content to bite the hand that feeds it.

America must curtail Israeli power by stopping funding and arms. If it will not, there will only be balance in the region when Iran is nuclear armed. I say that with a heavy heart, as there might be significant implications, but again, the lesson of history is that unless there is a more reasonable balance of power, so bad behavior is checked, one side will take and take.

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Is it a coincidence that the most fertile part (Jordan River valley) of the West Bank was earmarked for Area C with total Israeli control in the Oslo Agreement? Was it irrational to call Arafat and Fatah traitors? Is it a surprise that organizations like Hamas gained traction after the agreement?

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lest we forget :face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

Edit: Itā€™s a horrible watch even though it doesnā€™t contain too many graphic scenes. I felt like throwing up several times.

Itā€™s totally due to capture by the Zionist lobby.

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Iā€™m afraid that we are already past that point. This is genocide, and Iā€™m not sure many people can deny it further. Not even the Israel officials are formally denying it. Instead of that, they talk about driving off the Palestinians, colonizing Gaza and absorbing it into Israel.

Meanwhile, 1.1 million people are already in a state of starving. Soon, it will be 2.2 million, and thatā€™s before talking about a military intervention on Rafah. If that isnā€™t genocide, then I donā€™t know what is.

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I think this is quietly making a significant number of Israelis very nervous, not least because the Biden Administration keeps making it very obvious that that is exactly what Netanyahu (and Israel) is doing. If the US relationship is going to shift, it is not going to happen without an enormous amount of groundwork. A lot of that groundwork is being done by Netanyahu now.

Completely agree it is genocide. As abhorrent Israel actionā€™s, I donā€™t think the tide of public opinion has massively shifted. Those that are not paying attention will see a military conflict. Tit for tat started by recent terrorist attacks. Many will rationalise that the ends justifying the means (many have been conditioned to believe have to eradicate the threat. Itā€™s them or us). Many news networks are still trying to present ā€œbalanceā€.

I think we are rapidly approaching a famine that will resemble Rwanda. One of the worst famines of the modern era. As soon as that footage is broadcast, itā€™s no longer a war, itā€™s simply an atrocity.

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https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-congress-passes-temporary-budget-approves-new-military-aid-to-israel-halts-funding-to-unrwa/3172940

ISTANBUL / WASHINGTON

The US Congress on Saturday passed a temporary budget proposal that approves new military aid to Israel and halts funding to the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), until March 2025.

The temporary budget expected to be signed by US President Joe Biden today doesnā€™t allocate any funds to UNRWA for a year amidst famine concerns in Gaza.

The temporary budget, supported by both Democrats and Republicans, maintains the increase in military aid to Israel, preventing a government shutdown.

Military aid to Israel continues

The temporary budget allocates $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel from the $886 billion budget for the US Department of Defense.

Another pending $95 billion package designates $60 billion to Ukraine and $14 billion to Israel.

ā€œAs Iā€™ve repeatedly said: anyone involved in the 10/7 attacks must be held accountable. Thatā€™s why an independent investigation is looking into such allegations against 14 of UNRWAā€™s 13K workers. But we shouldnā€™t punish 2M innocent hungry people for the actions of those,ā€ US Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen said on X.

Shouldnā€™t punish 2M people but for the allegations against 14 of 13k workers but will still discontinue funding to UNRWA. Isnā€™t that collective punishment as well ?

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The attack on UNRAW is not an isolated or a spur-of-the-moment action but a part of well thought out plan. If you weak UNRAW you can get a stranglehold on over eight million Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank, East Jerusalem, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon.

UNRAW is the only universal and institutionalized support Palestinians have. Break it, and you break the Palestinians.

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I do think other countries will step in to ensure that the money is given for UNRWA to function. Unless US pressurizes those countries.