BBC reporting that Sunak confirmed that an RAF plane shot down an Iranian drone in Israel.
Is there a security agreement between the UK and Israel? Because otherwise, what on earth is the RAF doing operating there?
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Well, yes, it does. Syrian airspace is violated every day, so by definition the only element of this that is in any way an escalation is by scale. Jordan is asserting sovereignty over its own airspace to avoid getting pulled into this conflict, though that assertion may end up pulling it in anyway.
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You do the math. Between the Damascus air strike and the World Kitchen attack, Netanyahu was utterly isolated. Internally, his own coalition was showing signs of breaking apart, and Israel was being discussed in rogue state terms. Would he simply have ordered an even more reckless attack on Iran if the Damascus one didnât achieve that end? Perhaps, but that quite possibly could have been the breaking point for him, either internally or vis-a-vis the West.
Now, Israel has causus belli with Iran. A massively coordinated attack is a major step up from bombing an embassy building, no matter how odious that is. The conversation will now shift to degrading Iranian capability - and the same White House political advisers who have been watching pressure build on Ukraine with mounting frustration just served up an easy political coalition for taking the conflict to Iran.
Every violation is an escalation. Because each violation takes you a bit further and at some point you have a major incident. Escalation isnât just the end, itâs also the means that lead to that end.
Didnât US warplanes operate in Jordanian airspace, or was it just Jordanian armed forces?
We donât really know, it is entirely possible that the Jordanians co-operated with the US to allow them to make interceptions over Jordan, while asserting that it was Jordanian action. They certainly would not trumpet that.
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Real question now is does Israel use this as a pretext for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. That has to be their top of list.
Getting in practice taking down drones. I donât have a problem with that, but advertising the fact is utter stupidity.
The RAF has been maintaining air operations over Iraq and Syria (as has the US) for about 10 years, nominally against ISIS in âOperation Shaderâ.
US has reportedly distanced itself from any potential Israeli attack on Iran. Thatâs good, right?
Only if they use their influence to deter Israel from making retaliatory strikes.
I wonât hold my breath.
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Only if they keep that distance after the inevitable Iranian retaliation. Sort of pointless otherwise, they did not need to distance themselves from the Damascus embassy air strike.
To the extent it shows a limit to potential support to the Israeli war cabinet, maybe it will help to moderate Israelâs response.
While true , but which country wonât respond when their embassy is bombed ?
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Time for Israel to start their bombing runs again.
Good to see that some people are trying to stay focused on the real issue
Should watch it. Just the hazards to get to Rafah (11 check posts) will give you an idea how those people are suffering.
When Soleimani was assassinated we understood the Iranians would be forced to retaliate and there was an almost theatrical approach to it all. We let them do it, but they understood there was a limit to what they would be allowed to do. We acted appropriately indignant in response and there was a tit for tat in the weeks after, but it was all very much not an attempt from them to hurt us, more than it was a coordinated elaborate face saving exercise, and one we allowed the room to carry out.
There were some in the US Intel community treating these attacks like thatâŚwe knew they had to respond, and they did in a way they we had great intelligence on, that they knew we had great intelligence on, and so almost seemingly content to respond in a way that they knew we had good confidence would only have a small actual effect.
The US and Iran seem to be able to calibrate this pretty well but now the question is how much can the US pressure Israel to play their part when they conceive of many of their own incentives to use this to further escalate matters
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Similar sentiment voiced here
https://x.com/suzannedimaggio/status/1779470033963376697?s=61&t=VxX1vHU3NOwwNhlbyICG-g
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@Limiescouse just above has a good discussion of this. On the one hand, Iran launched a massive attack, but on the other it was clearly calibrated in terms of target selection. I suspect Israel will be somewhat taken aback that the US has not offered full-throated support for a carte blanche response.
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But it does appear that at least half of the population supports the actions and decisions of the people who are currently running the country. Iâd like to see a bigger demand for a general election by those who are anti-Netanyahu. Until that happens, one has to assume that most Israelis support the Israeli genocide against the Palestinians and its efforts to provoke a war with Iran.
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