The Middle East Thread

I was hoping that if they are going to bomb them hard, which they are anyway; that IDF would primarily target Iranian military industry, cripple it’s misile program, cripple it’s drone productions. Sensible stuff like that. Focusing on economic damage is…not cool.
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841467688725426354

https://x.com/Apex_WW/status/1841520668799590480

The world would be a better place if Israel and Iran wiped each other off the face of the earth.

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https://x.com/JeffreyGoldberg/status/1841438971068309601

Article is decent enough and free to read btw. Not that it contains any revelations.

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Netanyahu has already said regime change is coming. Presumably , in their estimation , wrecking the economy would be a way of bringing it about more quickly.

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I don’t know their intentions. But they are certainly not going to invade Iran since that is impossible. You may be right. I sort of dread what is going to happen. I hope they will bomb the Iranian arms industry, munitions depots etc. and military bases. And not major economic targets. But I they are going for pain, and then it’s going to be economic targets probably.

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https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1841533187996189118

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I have read about several instances of Merkava destroyed since October 8. Interestingly, all of those were hit by anti-tank mines or IED, not anti-tank missiles.

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I wish he and his loathsome kingdom would be cast out in the cold, just like Iran is. You make a succint point. It is what it is and it’s not just that the geopolitical alliance, which I like to call the Molotov-Ribbentropp Pact (because it is an alliance between ideologically opposed actors, much like in the historical pact in question) between the US and the House of Saud still goes on. They get away with worse than murder all the time as long as they don’t rock the boat too much and even then, as in the murder of Kashoggi, self interest of the US predictably demands that he gets away with it.

But at least as football fans, aka not geopolitical actors that must take other geopolitical considerations into account, we can oppose Saudi control and ownership and more. I wish everyone close to the House of saud to get a popular and economic backclash. States may need to deal with them, but as individuals we certainly don’t.

And yes, also the Emirates. Most people don’t realise that if you took the money out of these regimes, they would be utterly oppressive (are at this time) but that the money they flood into their citizens pockets keep them appeased.

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The Iranian attack was very, very much provoked by Israel, but has only very indirectly anything to do with Israel’s brutal Gaza campaign, which is terribly inconvenient for Iran but not critical. Indirectly only because the Gaza campaign triggered by Hamas oct 7 attack, forced Hezbollah to take part as part of the Axis and shell Israeli towns and military positions in the north, later triggering the new war between Hezbollah and Israel, where Israel killed Nasrallah and the Hezbollah leadership as well as Iranian generals.
It is the killing of Nasrallah (far more than Haniyeh) and the Hezbollah leadership as well as the killing of senior IRGC personell in Lebanon and Syria that made Iran decide to attack Israel. Hamas and Gaza is not that important for Iran, just useful. Hezbollah is.
And Iran is far from peaceful, it has been engaged in imperial proxy wars and has attempted to dominate multiple countries in the Middle East for many decades. The strike on Israel was far from a humanitarian intervention. It’s chiefly about Iranian geopolitical self interests to protect its spider web and increase morale of it, as well as deterrence visa vi Israel.

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https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1841576225393017185

https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1841562665107230819
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1841571354912469120
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1841575499170251241

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Just something about being media savvy and wading through info war material/war propaganda, since I feel like teaching at the moment for some strange reason. This post is very random and you may just scroll on. It’s not news this and maybe I am just bored.

I see many Hamas videos and I have never posted them before. I am sure many of you have seen them before as well. I am just posting one now, just to explain why I don’t post them. Why don’t I post them usually, I post so much battle footage from Ukraine and Russia? Well the answer is that I don’t know what they are showing. Unlike battle videos from Ukraine, which are uncut and show everything, Hamas videos on attacks on enemy armour show someone talking, usually praying, then aiming, everything else is usually greyed out for security reasons (Op-Sec is understandable). Then he shoots the RPG, usually seemingly hitting the Israeli vehicle. But does it kill or seriously damage the vehicle ? Often it does not, we know that from vehicle losses, but Hamas propaganda videos show it as a kill, always. The video always, always cut when the vehicle is seemingly hit. I say seemingly, usually you see a fireball. Why do I say seemingly ? Because of Trophy and armour: Trophy (countermeasure) - Wikipedia
Which is an explosive charge that detonates and if it works, kills the warhead so it does not penetrate (most RPGs can only pentrate a tank with luck anyway). Incredibly annoyingly with Hamas videos, they always cut them at the fireball. Real footage that is not slick propaganda, shows the aftermath of a hit, like we see thousands of in Ukraine where we see the brutal truth of war. In the Hamas propaganda videos, which are very similar to ISIS videos from Syria (same graphics and computer bullshit), this is almost never shown, so it’s impossible to know what you see, and if there is one thing I never post (this is an exception) knowingly, it is propaganda that can be disinformation or misleading and Hamas videos are very often at least misleading to a trained eye (Hezbollah videos tends to be much better and show a far clearer picture, or it used to be so in the past at least). Remember, if you ever see a war video and it is cut the second the target is hit, be very skeptical of what you seemingly see. There is always a reason why such videos are cut and when there is methodology regarding cutting them and glammy computer graphics inserted with cool sounds, be even more critical. Of course, I have seen several Hamas videos where an Israeli soldier is sniped, but that hardly has news value and is also quite uninteresting and have no value outside social pornography or heightening morale amongst Hamas fans (destruction of material and mass casualty of troops far more interesting, since it can change outcome of an operation) and I never post battle footage from Ukraine where a single Russian or a single Ukrainian are killed either, as it has no value and we know it is happening daily anyway. My twitter feed is full of FPV drone kills of individual troops, but I don’t usually post such videos unless they are remarkable and I deem it news worthy, since I find it generally ugly.

But yes, this video. This is an example of a video where it’s impossible to know what happened. I strongly suspect a failed attacks (at least most of them), but I don’t know that, it’s just an educated guess. Most people when they see this video will think they see destroyed Israeli tanks though. This is because they don’t understand what they are seeing and because they don’t consider the video and understand why it is cut and you see no aftermath.
Take a very careful look at this; and ask yourself the question: What do I really see here ?
https://x.com/warfareanalysis/status/1841527549001601523

My Ted Talk about misleading propaganda videos is now over. Regular disaster news will follow.

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Asshole

NEW

Crude oil price jumps 5% to $77 a barrel after President Biden, asked if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, responds “we’re discussing that”: https://t.co/4jCfFOLinQ pic.twitter.com/K8NVILMIEy

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 3, 2024
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Interesting how people haven’t got angry about Biden facilitating a genocide but are now worked up about the impact on the price of petrol

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Below 80 a barrel is still a low price for oil, so don’t understand the complaints.

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A shame they didn’t hit the Russians, but still a target I don’t complain about. Russian personell, aircraft and equippment was unfortunately not targeted nor hit, just the Syrian section of the airfield which had just recieved an Iranian shipment of arms destined for Hezbollah.
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1841733469291893068
https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1841680657115643952
https://x.com/Qidlbi/status/1841666735197323274
https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1841670249113944209

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The Iranian strike didn’t really do much damage on military targets despite the many missiles that struck around various bases.
https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1841908593882497223
https://x.com/PennyGodfather/status/1841909008195846346
https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1841909752470897149