The Middle East Thread

But the question is, does Harris have the balls and the numerical support to make such a drastic change in foreign policy?

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The outcome of this war is that Israel will have gone from rogue state status to pariah status. They are already accused of war crimes , have been characterised as being engaged in a genocide and now stand accused of a policy of extermination. For the UN and international courts to be talking about any country in those terms is really quite something. For them to do so about a country which has enjoyed almost blanket protection from any wrongdoing since the creation of their State from the Assembly’s most powerful member in these terms surely marks a sea change in the way they are now perceived and the immunity they will be afforded in future. The rising anti-Israel sentiment across the US is testament to what should be a new arrangement between the countries. If elected , Harris would probably have public opinion behind her to bring about change;

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This is difficult to judge and Harris, if she wins, will be embroiled in so much GOP skulduggery, that enacting anything meaningful (internal or external, policy wise) may be very, very challenging.

I don’t believe the US can reign them in under any circumstance. The best I would hope for is a 100% ban on any non-defensive weaponry supplied from them.

Just fucking isolate them through weapons embargo.

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What will it take for us to understand that USA can’t and doesn’t want to rein in Israel.

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The US doesn’t want to reign in Israel.

All Israeli actions have the tacit acceptance from the US. And I do daresay , Saudi and the other Sunni countries as well.

Their posturing and crocodile tears are part of that.

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The US wants to reign everywhere.

Whether or not it wants to rein in the Israelis is a completely different matter. :wink:

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Autocorrect caught me out.

Damn.

If Harris wins I think the current relationship with Israel will change for the better. Not wholesale changes, not satisfactory or even close to being fair, but I do see a little dialing back of some of the extremism under a President Harris.

She will be jumped all over by the GOP for being antisemitic, but if she is in power she will be able to lead, rather than walk the current thankless tightrope as a Presidential candidate. All she can say now is Israel has the right to defend itself, but how it defends itself is important. This last part is more than you will hear from the GOP, and if she becomes President, I expect her to be more forthright with that side of the messaging.

Ultimately Israel will do what it wants, especially with the extremist leaders they have, but if they persist, I expect a Harris Presidency to not be so brazenly complicit as we’ve seen, and stopping the supply of offensive weapons would be a good start.

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Meanwhile in Bangladesh

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to be fair, lots of stuff from 1899 wouldnt translate very well in 2024…

better to concentrate on the here and the now, and maybe not what the ‘conference of zionists’ were able to freely discuss in 1899

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Not sure how to pose the question so apologies for the clumsiness and/or if reading the situation badly.

Why is there so much restraint by the other countries in the neighbourhood to Israel’s actions? Particularly in light of the awful suffering inflicted upon civilians.

From a distance, it looks as if there is a bit of a “soft” green light from the surrounding countries to Israel to take the actions it has and continues with. Even Iran’s “show of force” appeared a bit meh. Is it solely the threat of the US or is there a level of complicity also?

Obviously the whole situation is tragic but the carte blanche Israel has appears odd.

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I think the answer is pretty simple - they cannot actually do anything about it. The only regional power with a chance of fighting a conflict with Israel to at least stalemate is Turkey, and while they are something of a rogue member they are still NATO members. Most of them have militaries not fundamentally built to fight other militaries but to exert force over their own populations.

Syria is scarcely capable of controlling its own territory. One could hardly say they have been giving a ‘soft green light’, Syria has been a partner with Hezbollah for a generation. Jordan is a regional lightweight that merely wants to stay out of trouble. Egypt is in a much different class, but internal politics are precarious and their military is painfully aware that any sort of conflict will be one-sided. Saudi Arabia is not very different. Even if all of them came together, it is unlikely the results would be any better than 1967 or 1973, and probably worse - even without US intervention, which in that scenario would be a near certainty.

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Biden and his administration want to curtail Israel, especially with the upcoming elections; they just have no meaningful way to affect that. Apart from the fact that an embargo, even if it somehow came to pass, would almost certainly result in a Trump win, it wouldn’t make much difference in Israel’s military ability, at least in the short term.

The reality is that Netanyahu has a free hand and he knows it. He is fully committed to making Gaza and probably South Lebanon uninhabitable by killing and destroying as much as he can. Short of ostracizing Israel to the same tier as Russia, Iran, etc, and forming a coalition against it, events which sound at the very least fanciful, there’s nothing to stop him.

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I agree that military options seem limited/impossible but economically they could do something that may bite. I’m thinking of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye. Even there I guess the US looms large. The “soft green” is then wrong and this is merely a reflection of the utter one-sidedness of situation.

In a way Israel has called everyone’s bluff - the Americans included.

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My two cents

  1. None of the countries in the region wants the Palestine to be liberated. Look at the way these leaders treat their own people. Palestine distracts any focus (in more ways than one) on own atrocities.
  2. Most of these countries are under US/Western influence (domination?) and we all know to what length the US/West will go to protect Israel.
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Israel has almost no economic ties with Saudi Arabia or Qatar, and Egypt is minimal. Turkey is more significant, but Israel imports from Turkey - so Turkey could cut off ties, but Israel would likely be able to import from elsewhere, while Turkey would be the primary loser. For economic pressure to become telling it would have to come from the West and/or China. Regionally, Israel is about as isolated economically as it is politically.

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I guess I meant against the US, that is a pipe dream and a half.

There could have been a case where Jordan took over West Bank territories. PLO’s coup or attempted coup has put paid to that as well. Jordan right now is comfortable staying away
The worst enemies of the Palestinians are their leaders.