They are past the Hama defence lines now, such as they were and the strategic city of Marat al Numan has fallen. I don’t have time to post anything substantial today (I am, of all things, posting this in a break in our board game). But the offensive is not stopping and it’s branching out southwards and eastwards. It is a critical situation and the offensive is so extraordinary rapid and meeting next to no opposition.
I don’t follow it all very closely, but I seem to remember Assad used chemical weapons on his own people years go. Because of that (I’m sure there are many other reasons) I can’t stand him.
I know that Russia helped Assad. I’m not fully sure why they see themselves as an ally there. Is that to wield influence and power in the Middle East, because Russia sees itself as a global player? Or is there some historic or strategic reason why Russia sees itself as needing to be involved in Syria? I think for years Russia has maintained a presence in Syria, but their focus has obviously been Ukraine.
The uneasy stalemate in Syria has now blown open, with HTS (jihadis?) regrouping, coming together in an alliance, better trained and prepared, and now making a decisive move on Aleppo and presumably with aspirations for more.
Assad shits himself and runs off to Moscow, presumably cap in hand to Putin, asking for more support. Russia has said they will help more, and now we wait to see what they will do? Do they have the means, and the will, to meaningfully put Assad back in the ascendency?
I also see wider ramifications with the Turks, Kurds, Iran, Russia, Israel and maybe Saudi being involved. And while I don’t see America in the same way Sithbare does, America has its fingers in a lot of global pies and there might be some geopolitical interest, one way or another, for America in Syria.
So I suppose I have two questions:
Who do we want to win and why?
What is the likely outcome in terms of how this might develop and drag others in further?
They have turned on him according to reports. Palace coup, Russian military council has ordered a palace coup against him according to some reports. They are obviously not happy with his performance the last few days. A liability now. RU is busy so they couldn’t really help much anyway. Better then to presere what power they can.
Everything is falling apart. HTS+factions, Turkey, Russia and Iran will have to sort this out with negotiations some how, probably. Probably some fighting first.
I actually think is a little different. I thought Assad might be thinking asylum, not sure he saw what appears to be a Russian-sponsored coup as the next step.
The only way to preserve their naval base and presence, was probably this, now that the house of cards collapsed. Because, we all know, they could not really do anything much militarily being too busy in Ukraine, so they are making a deal with HTS and al Jolani (he offered them a fig leaf yesterday).
Hama alone is astonishing for the sheer rapidity of this collapse. If the regime loses control of Homs, they lose access to the harbour at Tartus, having already been cut off from Latakia. I don’t think the government can last long in that circumstance, regardless of whom is in charge. Syria is simply too dependent on imports of too many things.
It’s what sources say, but the situation is fluid, very chaotic, so sometimes that will turn out to be rumours. But it looks like it. But preliminary reports (such as who ordered a coup when a coup is happening), can be wrong. I make no guarantees on absolute accuracy of events unfolding within last hours. I also haven’t trawled sources, I am actually playing a board game now ! A Russian supported Syrian general rumoured to be behind something anyway.
I have no time now to read carefully now tonight.
I think that really has caught a lot of observers off guard, because a lot of observers were thinking either Assad was getting instruction or taking asylum in Moscow, perhaps some mix of the two. You wonder now about Assad standing too close to those dodgy windows they seem to have in Russia, because he is now rather inconvenient.
Big picture, I don’t think anyone really knows what is going on. The various rebel factions are a jumbled mix, though they might have a reasonable sense of the collapse. In Damascus, whomever is working closely with the Russians might have a decent sense of what is going on in Damascus, but likely a very poor (and crumbling) sense of the operational status. The Iranians have clearly been caught badly offguard, the Israelis while probably quite delighted were not prepared for a change this rapid, and Washington has no clue what is going on. Their contacts with HTS are vestigal at best, the Turks are not remotely forthcoming, and five days ago their overwhelming regional priority was trying to broker a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. That in turn may now be about to collapse simply because Hezbollah is orders of magnitude more vulnerable than they were just a week ago.
The coup stuff seems to be “some high ranking officers wants to do this, russians involved in discussions, Assad has returned to Damascus from moscow; but few are actually aware of what exactly is going on”-thing.
I don’t know if a coup is actually happening. But there have been and are preparations and discussions. There is negotiations with Al Jolani behind the scenes.
I don’t know exact situation. Few seem to know and it is chaos. Multiple messages.
For instance this: A Senior Syrian military officer insinuates that there are officers who want a military coup to take over the Syrian government to stop rapid rebel takeover beyond Hama Stuff like that. And many sources say russian command is involved in discussions etc.
Unclear how much fighting there is in Damscus if actually any. But a few murders and some panic.
The officer didn’t clarify what would happen to “Assad” in the next stage.
