RU perspective and stuff. Seems interesting.
This guy removed
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I think that really has caught a lot of observers off guard, because a lot of observers were thinking either Assad was getting instruction or taking asylum in Moscow, perhaps some mix of the two. You wonder now about Assad standing too close to those dodgy windows they seem to have in Russia, because he is now rather inconvenient.
Big picture, I donât think anyone really knows what is going on. The various rebel factions are a jumbled mix, though they might have a reasonable sense of the collapse. In Damascus, whomever is working closely with the Russians might have a decent sense of what is going on in Damascus, but likely a very poor (and crumbling) sense of the operational status. The Iranians have clearly been caught badly offguard, the Israelis while probably quite delighted were not prepared for a change this rapid, and Washington has no clue what is going on. Their contacts with HTS are vestigal at best, the Turks are not remotely forthcoming, and five days ago their overwhelming regional priority was trying to broker a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. That in turn may now be about to collapse simply because Hezbollah is orders of magnitude more vulnerable than they were just a week ago.
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New al-Jolani statement on my timeline.
What it means is for others to decide and believe. I havenât even read it properly
But seems a media offensive.
âSyrian army officers and division commanders in Assadâs forces are communicating with Syrian rebels to coordinate their control over Syriaâ
â The Syrian armed opposition official to Al Jazeera
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Not everything, but theyâve caused more suffering and death than any other nation in the past 70 years
The coup stuff seems to be âsome high ranking officers wants to do this, russians involved in discussions, Assad has returned to Damascus from moscow; but few are actually aware of what exactly is going onâ-thing.
I donât know if a coup is actually happening. But there have been and are preparations and discussions. There is negotiations with Al Jolani behind the scenes.
I donât know exact situation. Few seem to know and it is chaos. Multiple messages.
For instance this:
A Senior Syrian military officer insinuates that there are officers who want a military coup to take over the Syrian government to stop rapid rebel takeover beyond Hama Stuff like that. And many sources say russian command is involved in discussions etc.
Unclear how much fighting there is in Damscus if actually any. But a few murders and some panic.
The officer didnât clarify what would happen to âAssadâ in the next stage.
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Itâs clear there is no actual real coup attempt.
Regme holds at Hama city, having beat back the jihadist/rebel attack previously today. They gather forces.
Meanwhile, HTS has taken 2 vilages from the YPG/SDF, it was reported earlier today. Reports also of the SDF attacking regime positions in Deir al-Zor area.
I havenât had time today to cross reference anything, like I usually do, so I am not sure of details or the accuracy of everything. But itâs clear that for now, Hama city in the hands of the Assad-state.
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The fighting earlier was probably sleeper cells in Damascus, several accounts say and that Maher al-Assadâs 4th division forces defeated them.
shrugs
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1862961030365622537
*NEW: Pro-Kremlin channel, which is close to Russian intelligence, claims Assad flew out of Moscow after lunch. *
*According to the source, yesterday Assad asked that the Kremlin press service officially publish the fact of his arrival in the Kremlin and meeting with Putin. *
Putinâs protocol refused to publish this meeting - citing the lack of political expediency.
The pace of reported Russian airstrikes near Idlib and Aleppo countryside tonight has increased.
Same source; well informed Turkish journalist above. But I only post 1 tweet, so as to not irritate anyone.
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SNA has broke through SDF defenses north of Shahba Pocket, SDF is probably going to evacuate the area towards Manbij, HTS and NLF have captured Sheikh Najjar from SDF, it is becoming a lopsided situation against SDF
SNA= Syrian National Army, the Turkish backed millitia coalition army more or less directly controled by Turkey.
SDF= Syrian Democratic Forces. Consists of the Kurdish YPG (or Peopleâs Protection Unit) and Arab local tribes. These are the secular ones you may remember from the war against the ISIS Caliphate. Those supported by the West and which Turkey wants eradicated.
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Iâm going to need to do some research because there are so many factions with so many acronyms I canât figure out who is what. I presume SDF is Assad while SNA is a rebel group? Calling themselves Syrian National Army only confuses meâŚ
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I added explanations for you.
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Youâre too fast, now I look badâŚ
So thatâs actually just rebel faction on rebel faction?
Wonderful, letâs all just heap further misery on the local population.
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Itâs Turkeyâs long arm in Syria, where they have embededd their military intelligence units. It is normally supported by Turkish artilllery strikes, drones and F-16 when on the offensive against the SDF. It consists of rather unruly, ill-diciplined (compared to the jihadists, who actually (!!) tends to comit less war crimes than SNA, not that the jihadists are not awful, mind you) gangster-like militias armed by the teeth by Turkey. They are an umbrella of various militias which Turkey organised into one army to crush the kurds some years ago. They are less ideological than most factions, but also more criminal-like (except for the corrupt regime militias, many who are involved in the enormous Captagon drug trade). A lot of former FSA rebels amongst them, now maybe blasè and more mercenary-like.
Mind you, I generalise. I have to. There is no other way explaining this unless you want to write a long article or a thesis.
Turks have been going after the Kurds for a long time, just the acronyms are more recent.
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Operation Dawn of Freedom room launched a decisive operation against Tal Rifaat area from the north, south and east. SNA units have mobilized against YPG/PKK from Azaz, Marea and Sheik Najjar lines.
Turkish source.
There are some really ugly videos of course, but I donât see the point in posting them. itâs ugly.
By the way, there are a lot of videos of war material being captured, will not post. But tanks, IFVs and a lot of drones.
But I will post one example. An Urugan is a powerful modern long range rocket artillery piece.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1863135857722478628
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Yeah I was aware about that, just that the acronyms makes it clearer to me whoâs fighting who.
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The Turkish Armed Forces directly involved now (I think I said this would be the case 2 days ago), with artillery strikes and probably recon drones in the SNA offensive. This is of course part of Ankarraâs plan and was not planned 5 days ago. The SNA only ever goes on the offensive at the direction of Ankarra.
SNA (also going under acronym TFSA, or Turkish Free Syrian Army) going hard for SDF stronghold Tel Rifat, backed by artillery. Slightly unclear if Turkish 155mm pieces involved in bombardment, but they usually are. They are after all embedded in firing positions in northern Syria.