I suppose this was their fault too.
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Itâs clear there is no actual real coup attempt.
Regme holds at Hama city, having beat back the jihadist/rebel attack previously today. They gather forces.
Meanwhile, HTS has taken 2 vilages from the YPG/SDF, it was reported earlier today. Reports also of the SDF attacking regime positions in Deir al-Zor area.
I havenât had time today to cross reference anything, like I usually do, so I am not sure of details or the accuracy of everything. But itâs clear that for now, Hama city in the hands of the Assad-state.
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The fighting earlier was probably sleeper cells in Damascus, several accounts say and that Maher al-Assadâs 4th division forces defeated them.
shrugs
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1862961030365622537
*NEW: Pro-Kremlin channel, which is close to Russian intelligence, claims Assad flew out of Moscow after lunch. *
*According to the source, yesterday Assad asked that the Kremlin press service officially publish the fact of his arrival in the Kremlin and meeting with Putin. *
Putinâs protocol refused to publish this meeting - citing the lack of political expediency.
The pace of reported Russian airstrikes near Idlib and Aleppo countryside tonight has increased.
Same source; well informed Turkish journalist above. But I only post 1 tweet, so as to not irritate anyone.
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SNA has broke through SDF defenses north of Shahba Pocket, SDF is probably going to evacuate the area towards Manbij, HTS and NLF have captured Sheikh Najjar from SDF, it is becoming a lopsided situation against SDF
SNA= Syrian National Army, the Turkish backed millitia coalition army more or less directly controled by Turkey.
SDF= Syrian Democratic Forces. Consists of the Kurdish YPG (or Peopleâs Protection Unit) and Arab local tribes. These are the secular ones you may remember from the war against the ISIS Caliphate. Those supported by the West and which Turkey wants eradicated.
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Iâm going to need to do some research because there are so many factions with so many acronyms I canât figure out who is what. I presume SDF is Assad while SNA is a rebel group? Calling themselves Syrian National Army only confuses meâŠ
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I added explanations for you.
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Youâre too fast, now I look badâŠ
So thatâs actually just rebel faction on rebel faction?
Wonderful, letâs all just heap further misery on the local population.
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Itâs Turkeyâs long arm in Syria, where they have embededd their military intelligence units. It is normally supported by Turkish artilllery strikes, drones and F-16 when on the offensive against the SDF. It consists of rather unruly, ill-diciplined (compared to the jihadists, who actually (!!) tends to comit less war crimes than SNA, not that the jihadists are not awful, mind you) gangster-like militias armed by the teeth by Turkey. They are an umbrella of various militias which Turkey organised into one army to crush the kurds some years ago. They are less ideological than most factions, but also more criminal-like (except for the corrupt regime militias, many who are involved in the enormous Captagon drug trade). A lot of former FSA rebels amongst them, now maybe blasĂš and more mercenary-like.
Mind you, I generalise. I have to. There is no other way explaining this unless you want to write a long article or a thesis.
Turks have been going after the Kurds for a long time, just the acronyms are more recent.
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Operation Dawn of Freedom room launched a decisive operation against Tal Rifaat area from the north, south and east. SNA units have mobilized against YPG/PKK from Azaz, Marea and Sheik Najjar lines.
Turkish source.
There are some really ugly videos of course, but I donât see the point in posting them. itâs ugly.
By the way, there are a lot of videos of war material being captured, will not post. But tanks, IFVs and a lot of drones.
But I will post one example. An Urugan is a powerful modern long range rocket artillery piece.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1863135857722478628
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Yeah I was aware about that, just that the acronyms makes it clearer to me whoâs fighting who.
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The Turkish Armed Forces directly involved now (I think I said this would be the case 2 days ago), with artillery strikes and probably recon drones in the SNA offensive. This is of course part of Ankarraâs plan and was not planned 5 days ago. The SNA only ever goes on the offensive at the direction of Ankarra.
SNA (also going under acronym TFSA, or Turkish Free Syrian Army) going hard for SDF stronghold Tel Rifat, backed by artillery. Slightly unclear if Turkish 155mm pieces involved in bombardment, but they usually are. They are after all embedded in firing positions in northern Syria.
Syria in particular makes the oversimplification of âthe West/USA/Israel is responsibleâ really fall apart. There are at least 5 discrete âsidesâ, some of which themselves are coalitions. The Kurds are most closely aligned with the US, but are keenly aware that they can be and have been sold out repeatedly. The Turks have had a hand in for about 20 years, and are at least as interested in fighting the Kurds as Assad. The jihadis are currently united, but are fundamentally split. Hezbollah has extensive local support from the Shiâite minority, and the government is really a coalition of southern Sunni and the Alawites. HTS right now doesnât seem very interested in fighting either SNA or SDF, but they have in the recent past.
It is more or less a 5-way civil war.
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No worries, Syria is aronym hell. Itâs the place in hell where you are sent to be confused by acronyms of various factions, the level above where Lucifer sits, head in ice.
Itâs complicated for me too. I only know well the acronyms of the bigger factions. The smaller ones, I often must google. But so many umbrellas of factions with their own abbrevations and acronyms. Dante would have had his own level in hell indeed, to confuse people before they were tortured.
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Regarding political support: UAE (emirates) backs Assad these days hard. Economical reasons, they have had a thaw for years and reallignment. As does Iraq of course. Saudi Arabia has had a reallignment with Assad too. Written much about this. Even Turkey have done this, but Assad slapped their wrist not long ago (unwise).
To make it more complicated, UAE and KSA (Saudis) used to support the jihadist factions to the hilt previously. Now they donât. At least not officially, maybe some intel officers does.
Jordan: Supports FSA in the south, but has re-alligned with Assad.
Taliban (yes, the Taliban, way more powerful than most people are aware in the Jihadist world landscape) backs HTS. HTS, while not really Al Qaida proper, is backed by everyone who likes Al Qaida. The ideological differences areâŠslim. When I said above somewhere that HTS has had an influx of more than 10 000 jihadists in latter months, I was not exaggerating. From Afghanistan, Pakistan, China +++, they have come, heeding al-Jolanis call. Turkey cooperates because this faction is by far, the strongest and most dangeorus in war (itâs not exactly convenient for Turkey to fight agains them).
Turkey: SNA-anti Kurds and Assad.
The West:
France: Cautious reallignment with Assad, same with the Brits. Still anti assad, but no longer involved. Assad was winning after all.
The Americans: On their way out, does little to support anyone. They are supposed to protect the Kurds.
Russia: You know that. Assad, sometimes Kurds in the north like the Americans because they counter Turkey.
Israel: Anti-Assad and Iran: Bombs Iran and Hezbollah as well as SAA (Syrian Arab Army) regularly when they feel they need to. Unclear how israel reacts to this. They are a bit busy anyway. Itâs not a dream scenario for Israel that Syria is overtaken by sunni jihadists that are pro-Hamas, but at the same time, Assad = Iran.
And much more. The mistake most do, however, is to remove the agency from, and underestimate the brain power of al-Jolani and his global jihadist allies. They are not dumb, they know war. And yes, they know how to fight conventional war. But I know, popular to always blame the orchestrations of a major âcolonial stateâ, more convenient that. Primary actors behind this is however the Jihadist spider web, led by al-Jolani in Syria and Turkey, respectively.
Itâs complicate and not easy street-level conspi-theory of âUSA-NATO is behind thisâ or âIsrael is behind this and planned it all in 3 weeks and magically controls the Taliban and Al Qaidaâ; yes ?
But of course, the Lebanon war (and Ukraine obviously, which plays a larger role since Russian support more critical than Hezbollah) role plays a large role, people are very right about that, just not for the reasons they think. Why ? Well, Hezbollah has withdrawn from Syria to counter Israel, as has mostly Iran. So has Russia.
Obviously this makes starting a large scale offensive significantly more timely and fruitful. It is extremely unlikely that all of this would have happened if Russia was not stuck in Ukraine, iran was not busy, Hezbollah had not withdrawn. Those are the most powerful military forces of the Assad state, after all, and they are gone. Why then, if you have ambitions, not kick of the war big time again ? The Timing is perfect. You could ask for no better scenario, you could dream of no better scenario realistically, if you were a wardlord with nation builing ambitions (jolani) or if you wanted a good time window for crushing the Kurds (Turkey). Itâs amazing for them. USA almost gone, Russia almost gone, Iran almost gone, Hezbollah almost gone.
So if you have significant forces, well trained (jihadists) available and have spent a fair few months planning the pros and cons and making a good battle plan as well as recieving thousands of reinforcements from abroad , taking into the considerations the geopolitical events the last few years, making under the table deals with states and tribes and preparing. Then maybe you have what is called âOpportunityâ.
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Itâs an important location.
And turkish well sourced journalist further reports
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1863229252717449653
Meanwhile, the jihadist and their more liberal allies, are murdering attacking the Assadists further south, advance slowed down but still advancing. Not cost free, mind you. There have been circulating some videos of large convoys bombed, as well as civilian areas in cities now conquered. But itâs incredibly graphic with screaming and dying men and body parts and it has not enough news value for me to post. But obviously they are taking large losses too. But they are many and have far superior morale and will to sacrifice compared to their enemyâŠ
Itâs shit and chaos. Oh, and al-safira defence factory captured. A very, very interesting site, where chemical weapons were researched, produced and stored. It is noteworthy that Hayat tharir al Sham has captured this and I donât exactly like it.
https://x.com/markito0171/status/1863156106723258478
Outside states, Israel, US, Russia, Iran, everyone, is probably keeping an eye on Al safira now.
It has been bombed by Israel in the past.
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Iranians attacking SDF positions in the manbij zone, were destroyed by the US air force.
Cluster fuck is not a good enough term. Free for All. Total Mayhem, multiple parties waging seperate campaigns.
NEW - US airstrikes & A-10 strafing runs reported against Iran proxy militia positions in al-Mayadin in eastern [Syria] tonight. Heavy casualties reported. Multiple ambulances raced to the scene.
Meanwhile, Russian air force now very active in Idlib, Hama and Aleppo.
Meanwhile, the Kurdish population in Aleppo is evacuating and sleeping on streets and in the desert. They will be ethnically cleansed, as is the norm in this conflict.
Ugly fucking conflict, this. Plague or cholera etc.
Meanwhile in Ankarra: