Thank you.
Pro Regime TV claims that Bashar al Assad is in Tehran to meet with Khamenei. There are rumours that he brought his wife and children there too.
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Iranian Foreign Minister tells Iraqis today in Baghdad that Tehran will send âmilitary deploymentsâ to save Assad in Syria.
I mean can Assad hold Damascus until Iranians arrives to Syria - donât think so
However, Iraqi FM confirms that Baghdad will focus on diplomatic efforts to help Damascus regain control in Syria â firmly denying any military involvement.
This marks a significant setback for Assad, as it was Iraqi armed groups that enabled him to recapture Aleppo in 2016.
All in all, the situation in Syria is evolving rapidly, but the pace will accelerate dramatically w/ the fall of Assad & the Syrian rebelsâ takeover of Damascus.
This shift will inevitably ripple across the region, with significant implications for countries like Lebanon & Iraq.
The greatest threat is Syriaâs conflict spilling into Iraq & Lebanon, igniting sectarian wars in both. Assadâs fall would devastate the Axis of Resistance, leaving Iraq & Lebanon on the brink. keep an eye on both Iraq & Lebanon in coming months in case Damascus loses the grip.
Lawk Ghafuri.
Israelâs Channel 12 reports that Israeli aviation have struck Assad regime chemical weapons depots to prevent them from falling into the hands of Syrian rebels.
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https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1865127892239180150
Assad allies:
⢠Russia still didnât move any forces from Africa. Some airstrikes but no commitment for more resources
⢠Iraq, lots of talk but little help so far.
⢠Iranian FM talks about full support, but his state tv now calls HTS âarmed oppositionâ instead of takfiris
Turkeyâs SNA have now started their Manbij offensive against the Kurds, calling it a âRevolutionary offensiveâ and blah blah.
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https://x.com/VivaRevolt/status/1865137577654677844
https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1865135200688013808
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Very mixed feelings about this. I really hope HTS will uphold their early promises and actually make a Syria for all, not just their preferred sects.
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'It looks like the rebels are already gaining international legitimacy , an ominous sign for Assad ;
In a briefing for reporters this week, Mouaz Moustafa, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, an opposition group that works with the U.S. military, praised the group for turning on Aleppoâs electricity soon after it occupied the city.
Mr. Moustafa said it was wrong to tie the group to its jihadist roots, insisting that it was not affiliated with terror groups. He urged the United States to give its full-throated support to the push against Mr. al-Assad, saying the offensive was in U.S. national interests.
âEveryone should see this as Iran losing in Syria,â he said.â
(Free to read.)
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I didnât observe the earlier part of the Civil War that closely, but for those who did, are there tipping points in terms of international recognition for the Syrian opposition that have been crossed that werenât before?
I would imagine itâs simply a case of realpolitik. The regional powers have seen that the writing is on the wall and are aligning correspondingly. Of course HSTâs renouncement of jihadi ideology and rhetoric has helped.
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Itâs not surprising since the Gulf Arabs are aligned with the Salafist forces.
https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1865378881969979489
What Lavrov says, seldom if ever matters.
https://x.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1865382274323153072
Because most of them donât understand their actual position.
https://x.com/OzKaterji/status/1865368524195062172
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They used to be, very strongly in support too, as they funded them strongly in the past (each their own faction). UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia and more. But as I have tried to explained before, they discarded them a while back and sought reallignment with Assad. UAE for instance kept broadcasting âwe support the government in Damascusâ until a day ago. This is not how they wanted this to end.
That is why it has been so akward for them now in the last week, they have to reallign themselves again and the rebel factions (I say rebel factions, for while HTS is the principal military group, they are supported by almost all segments of Sunni society, including liberal minded people) donât trust them. The only overtly active state player is Turkey, but even they are playing catch up as best they can and their priorities are Kurds. For Turkey to go against HTS militarily, it would be hell for them. They just canât do that. They have a lot of Sunni refugees, they have in their propaganda claimed to support the revolution for decades.
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