They used to be, very strongly in support too, as they funded them strongly in the past (each their own faction). UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia and more. But as I have tried to explained before, they discarded them a while back and sought reallignment with Assad. UAE for instance kept broadcasting “we support the government in Damascus” until a day ago. This is not how they wanted this to end.
That is why it has been so akward for them now in the last week, they have to reallign themselves again and the rebel factions (I say rebel factions, for while HTS is the principal military group, they are supported by almost all segments of Sunni society, including liberal minded people) don’t trust them. The only overtly active state player is Turkey, but even they are playing catch up as best they can and their priorities are Kurds. For Turkey to go against HTS militarily, it would be hell for them. They just can’t do that. They have a lot of Sunni refugees, they have in their propaganda claimed to support the revolution for decades.
I posted it yesterday above though. Old rebel groups in the south who had been defeated by Assad reactivating. Daraa fell in 2 days. Old revolutionaries talking witch each other, everyone and their little pet dog, smelling blood. This is the chance. They see it, they are not stupid. So those who had their “cases settled with the Assad regime” became rebels again overnight. Because it wasn’t as if they didn’t have their rifles. And they don’t need heavy weapons to overrun towns.
They are not going to do that. No one is going to protect the Kurds against Turkey. But they will probably protect them against SNA.
I respect HTS, but it’s for their prowess. I am super ultra skeptical of what they will do after they have won. Jolani talks about institutions, but their rule in Idlib is autocratic.
Don’t underestimate them. They are smart and they are also able to speak softly because they are also wise and understand Realpolitik. But don’t trust what they say. Christians and everyone else among minorities, I expect they will have some sort of Dhimi status in practice.
For instance, in Idleb, there are churches, but HTS have removed all the crosses on the exterior of the churches so they do not cause offense. And Idlib is the only example of their rule. They don’t persecutute, they are not corrupt, but…
Let us just say that I am skeptical. They promise to disband after they have won. Do I trust that ? Nah, but their messaging is very positive so let us wait and see. But of course I worry. So far they have been able to conquer precisly because they have been shockingly benevolent when everyone thought they would chop off heads to catchy religious music…
Anyway, it’s just my opinion. I am very wary. But on the other hand, I undestand, Assad must absolutely go and HTS is the only available vehicle. His criminal rule, the absurd crimes of his secret police, it is so staggering that he has 0.0 legitimacy outside Alawite enclaves (and some christians).
That’s why I said that line. Given all that I have read about them, I too am wary (although that’s also probably a large part of it is what you post), but that’s why doing something so uncharacteristic and unexpected would really shift the needle for me. Doesn’t mean I would like them, mind.
I’m wondering if they might be betting that if they can establish control and goodwill, they could ramp up the propaganda to declare themselves saviours of Syria, and use that to propel a political wing into dominant power.
It’s a gambit for them. But geographically, if they stay in Qusayr and not particiate in doomed fights in Homs or Damascus, I can understand why they do this. But HTS are going to fucking crush them. “Everyone” hates Hezbollah in Syria and when Assad falls, they are probably not going to allow Hezbollah to control the border to Lebanon.
Edit: (Yes, I edited after I first wrote a rant about how foolish this was, because I reconsidered, looked at the battle map, remembered the fighting in Qusayr back in the days and considered why hezbollah might fortify this area for actual strategic reasons). Sometimes, you have to think twice…
So, in a good hour, I am going to be in an imaginary world with my friends until late. I suspect Damascus will fall tonight or tomorrow. Events are moving to fast to stop the epic collapse.
The Fall of Damascus has begun.
This is history and will change the geopolitical balance in the region.
How do you explain this onslaught? It takes considerable resources to prepare for such an offensive. Where would they get such resources without an external patron.
The Syrian Arab Army ? They literally have most of their weapons as well as weapons from previous weapon deliveries long ago. They have captured much, much more weapons from the SAA over the years than they ever got from patrons. And that is well documented, also above in many of the posts I have posted, shows infinite loot. Patrons mostly delivered specilised weapons, like anti tank weapons and the like, but that was long ago. Their anti tank weapons now are mostly Kornet, russian ones, captured. They have captured thousands. Their IFVs and tanks, are all from Assad’s army. Only the SNA have Turkish vehicles. The SDF have some american armoured vehicles, but no IFVs. Not recent.
And as I have said, the offensive has been planned for very many months, also documented. As I have said, when eyes where on Gaza, there were considerable reports of more than 10 000 jihadists entering Syria. In preparation of something. Their main current sponsor that helped them get over there, if you are looking for a state, is actually the Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. But the ammunition is Syrian, more than 90 percent of it.
Anyway, I don’t have time right now to write the best post ever. I am on my way out for tonight
