A cease fire will happen eventually (a perpetual campaign isn’t in their interest). But it’s quite possible that they want to extract better terms from Hamas and further turn the screws on the Gazan populace (well, certainly Smotrich and Ben Gvir would like to turn increase the pain).
But I think it’s relatively close, myself. Less than a month, I think.
Time will tell…
Trump will probably try to take credit for a ceasefire as he comes into office.
Israel smashed Gaza in such a disproportionate way that whatever standing they had in the international community has been severely eroded. They probably won’t care though, as America has lurched to the extreme right and they are its main ally, international community be damned.
Meanwhile, they also claim (slight salt needed on that one, but only slight, since Hamas can very easily release a statement rejecting the accuracy of the claim, which they have not yet done):
https://x.com/guyelster/status/1879518024790949974
Many in Israel care, or at least worry a lot about the long term implications post-Trump. But those in power don’t. They want to maximise strategic security gains now that they have the chance and they don’t have long term political stability as a priority. Rather the opposite. In chaos, they view opportunity.
Wouldn’t surprise me if Israel rejects this ceasefire agreement just as a present to Trump for officially closing the deal later.
Trump will treat it as a favour done to him.
And I meant this ceasefire isn’t going to happen now.
It will happen eventually.
They only need to drag it out a few days more and Trump will be able to claim that his magical powers brought it about . The whole thing has been choreographed to provide that ridiculous illusion
Exactly. Trump needs to do his chest thumping act of bringing us troops in.
Syria is in shambles. Hezbollah done. Iran largely neutralized and won’t be acting further once the whole US warships threat materialises.
Russia , well they’ve got the stalemate in Ukraine to deal with.
All this is being packaged as a massive win for Trump.
And I’m pretty sure Putin will climb down on this issue in essence for significant concessions on the part of Trump as far as Ukraine is concerned.
There is nothing for him to climb, though. Kreml doesn’t care about Gaza or the Israeli/Palestine conflict at all. It’s just used for sound bytes now and then. Russia has no stake in this.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is only useful for Russia in so far as it can be used to beat the West with, divert attention from their own imperial conquest and/or exploit openings with israeli enemies for basing etc.
They don’t give a flying fuck. It’s a game for them.
Ceasefire??? Tell that to the 46,000 murdered.
Have conflicts like this ever ended with justice for everyone? The dead are gone, but at least the killing will stop and it will become possible to start addressing basic needs like food, shelter, clean water, etc.
Glad that it’s happened and for the people that won’t die as a result. No reason why the same deal couldn’t have been reached a year ago, without all the death and destruction.
I’ve no faith that Netanyahu will stick to it. He’s probably said to the scum bags in his cabinet that once hostages back they find a reason to restart war. And with Trump in power they’ll annex whatever parts of West Bank they want
The gloating from the other side.
Fuck off Cunt.
A Cease Fire is not for them. It’s for those who live.
This campaign was always going to last long after the events of october 7th.It was never going to be like Cast Lead or any of the other military operations that have previously been called Gaza wars in the media. This time Israel declared war after it was attacked, a radically different scenario from previous operations.
I don’t believe this cease fire would have happened now, had Hezbollah not been removed from the state and Iran weakened. It gave Israel strategic victories related to the war,and without such victories the incentives for agreeing on what is essentially theoretically white peace, would be far weaker and particularly given how the israeli government looks like with Smotrich and previously Ben Gvir there to make concessions impossible. Israel didn’t start this campaign to fight fair with Hamas, but to brutally and ruthlessly punish them (and Gazans for supporting it) for the October 7 surprise attack. Their objectives changed along the way, also because their government is maximalist and dysfunctional, but the primary objective was to make Hamas and the Gazans pay a stiff, stiff cost, so that they do not contemplate repeating the Oct 7 attack in decades. So deterrance and punishment (but even this was unlikely to be enough without a weakened Axis of Resistance). Secondary objective in tandem to the first one was destroying military capabilities of Hamas. Getting their hostages back was always tertiary and here Hamas miscalculated badly (among many other outrageous miscalculations they made, such as starting a full fledged war with a superior enemy who can only be shackled by the United States, right before a US election campaign that again would dictate that the US could not politically intervene; as well as expecting Iran and everyone else to become directly involved in a full fledged war on their behalf and some how win).
That some Israeli leaders had wet dreams of removing the gazan populace is besides the point, that was a “moving the goal posts” maximalist objective that was never realistic, along the lines with completely destroying Hamas using the war strategy that they ended up using (they did not take Gaza, but they moved in and moved out, impossible then to destroy an enemy if you do not occupy the ground but leave).
It’s probably soon over for now. But the devil is in the details of this deal and there may still be potential spoilers in implementation.
I would expect fighting tonight. It’s the norm on the eve of a cease fire after all. I would be honestly a bit surprised if not a 100 more people at were killed before implementation. If there is no hectic military operations, it would be a bit odd and that would be a sign that Israel is more desperate to make this work, maybe more than Hamas is.
Let us just be glad that it will probably end now. Because there will be no “justice” for those already dead, nor probably for those mutilated or orphaned. This Cease Fire solves nothing, because as usual in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this is just a cease fire and so will only bring respite but no peace.
But a cease fire will help people who would otherwise be killed stay alive and it can give the traumatised a chance to start healing. There is a miniscule chance that it can also start a political process, but i don’t really believe that and do not see how. But I suppose the chance exists, some how.
It’s still shit, but this was always going to be shit and deeply unfair.
I don’t think there has ever existed a more untrustworthy piece of shite
He wants to wait until Trump has been inaugurated. This is , after all , exactly the same deal that was agreed in May.
Apparently the Democrats are the big bad though, the corrupt ones doing everything for rich and powerful people.
This whole situation just screams Reagan and Iran.
A very good overview here from Patrick Wintour , The Guardian’s diplomatic editor , in which he’s quick to point out that Netanyahu’s boast about re-making the Middle East might not turn out to be quite what he had hoped for. One thing is for certain however and that is that Israel will never be looked at in the same way again. Those verdicts are coming down the pike sometime , and once we have the international press finally allowed into Gaza and our screens are filled with the truth about the barbarity inflicted there , then their self-righteous claims and their victim mentality will no longer strike a chord with anyone outside of their most zealous defenders.
In the meantime, get a few extra killings in just for shits and giggles