Yay, I’m as good as Schlesinger Jr. (whoever that is) 
Probably the night of June 18 Tehran time. The cynical part of me thinks late afternoon Eastern time, a little earlier than optimal in military terms. However, given the pounding that Iranian air defences have already taken, not much real risk to US forces.
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American historian, also served in the Kennedy Cabinet - and was just about the only one who thought the Bay of Pigs invasion was moronic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_M._Schlesinger_Jr.
His basic thesis is that US thinking has moved back and forth between isolationism and interventionism, never learning that neither is entirely correct and both ended up leading to similar mistakes. It was jarring reading it in the 1980s thinking it was describing recent events, when it was written in 1952. If anything it only rings truer now as a nominally isolationist President seems to be on the cusp of leading the US into a struggle that could readily destabilize the entire Middle East, replicating the folly of Bush Jr, one of the most interventionist Presidents ever.
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I don’t think the air-defense systems are of much use against drones, specially which are launched from inside the country.
I saw a video, which is like clip from a bond movie: Mossad agents launching a drone from a trailor/container truck. Pretty amazing, and hilarious.
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That was day 1 (maybe partly 2). Iran have moved against Mossad assets now. Such operations are “impressive” but one shots, usually. It’s an alpha strike gambit.
Against such small drones, shotguns and flak guns are good.
But the drones that do actual damage to Iran now, are the Israeli surveilance drones that lazily fly uncontested in the sky over Iran. These send data to Israel and their bomber fleet.
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https://x.com/APHClarkson/status/1934996254309683456
Meanwhile, rumours that Israel have killed Ahmadinijad
https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1935020585253310523
This last post is more for military nerds
https://x.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1935022368277283030
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1935042541226701052
This was 10 hours ago
https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1934893418674536828
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Iranian Ambassador to Russia:
The Iranian people will never forget who was with us during these times - and who chose to do nothing.
Well, I hope so.
Some potentially yes. It depends on how much is pulverised down into particles small enough to become airborne. Even then there is also a debate on how far they go. Overall, it depends how much is there and in what form and where. The building structure itself, for example could be “clean”
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Thanks for your input. That is an example of something I never comment on due to lack of adequate knowledge. It’s the sort of topic where speculating and pretending you know what you are talking about is really, really inappropriate (unless you are a bufoon in general).
And I don’t know.
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I know a little through work and also a fair chunk on demolition. Not quite the same but some parallels to draw on. However, I am uncertain of what they have and the processes they are engaging in.
I suppose that if the “nasty stuff” was deep underground, you could literally knock the crap out of everything above and essentially bury it.
I will say it’s a world away from Chernobyl for example.
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Nuclear test ?
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1935076773953220953
Iranian state TV warns of a ‘major surprise’ tonight, one it claims the world will ‘remember for centuries’, as Tehran issues new threats amid rising tensions.
(because there are rumours that they are trying to quickly weaponise something at this moment in time).
Because if it is not a nuclear test, then only closing the Straits of Hormuz will “be remembered”.
Posting this just in case someone does not know this (it’s very obvious to me, to the point where I forget to mention such things). Iran’s missile arsenal is primarily focused on US targets, not Israeli (who are far away and can only be hit by ballistic missiles). So obviously, Iran has a lot of launch capacity against US bases. This is incidentally also why US entering the war will mean totally overhwelming strikes on Iran so they cannot launch coordinated all of these missiles.
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1935069826877362299
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1935070262304866769
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https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1935082193480458661
https://x.com/leventkemaI/status/1935083337653137605
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1935062847161078007
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1935092393579344366
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1935093493824659479
https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1935095334625230889
More coming now at CET 00:22
https://x.com/kimhvik2/status/1935100457434710348
https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1935100888378654919
(the reason I keep building on this post is that I suspect strongly that this will be a Big Night and I will reach max posts in 10 sec.)
This is fantastic BDA from Iran
Khamenei declares that the Battle Begins, invoking the historic Battle of Khaydar
https://x.com/Khamenei_fa/status/1935091514083778752
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Not exactly news (it’s eight days old), but an in-depth article on Israel’s responsibility in what happens at Gaza, and the possible consequences, for Israel, but also for the governments of countries who continue to support this genocide:
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This thread is quiet.