https://x.com/yossi_melman/status/1935749961087426653
“The Iranian equation is becoming clearer. Israel attacked IRGC and army headquarters. Iran is trying to reach the range. Israel is attacking nuclear research universities and killing nuclear scientists, Iran is dealing a painful blow to the Weizmann Institute. Israel is attacking refineries, Iran is responding against the IDF. And today it is bombing Soroka in response to its claim that a hospital was hit.”
News headlines tonight, irony at it’s most extreme
Israel condemning Iran for a missile strike on a hospital.
This is very well written (Netanyahu famously today went out and said that he too, like the people,suffers, because his son had to cancel a wedding):
I will quote Naomi Shemer. All of this will come tomorrow, if not today, and if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow. And if not the day after tomorrow, then maybe in two weeks. Trump announced that he will decide within two weeks to give an opportunity to exhaust the negotiations with Iran. And in the meantime, Israel and Iran will continue to kidnap and kidnap. In other words, the civilians will continue to be killed and suffer, and the suffering Bibi will not marry his son.
https://x.com/yossi_melman/status/1935755570973491656
Interesting to see above that Iran has been using lower grade missiles so far, but is now starting to use better equipment.
I know Israel has struck a telling blow, first in its attacks on Hezbollah and now Iran itself, but I always assumed Iran would at least have the ability to hit them back, and probably quite hard too.
Ultimately Israel is much better armed and will prevail, but my suspicion all along is that Iran is much better armed than it has demonstrated so far.
I could be wrong. Israel may have downgraded them to almost no threat already. But I am far from convinced of that.
Any idea what type of missiles the Iranians have used? 30% is a very high penetration rate.
Not entirely right now. I am traveling now, cannot access computer and I don’t have this stuff in my head regarding names of missiles and how they exactly work. I have no expertise in this, I just read experts and learn. So I have only layman knowledge.
But I can find this information if you would like to know more.
This is just a not very informative tease:
“The army believes that this morning Iran first fired a ballistic missile with a fissile warhead, a kind of giant cluster bomb, which is known to be in the possession of the IRGC.”
You can also probably find some info yourself on wiki. Basically, they used their newer medium/long range ballistic missiles that have better counter measures.
Thanks mate. I saw your post on the cluster-missile after I had posted. 
This morning, Be’er Sheva was hit by 3 missiles fired towards the south. There was extensive destruction in the area. Train traffic was stopped. This is the first quiet day since yesterday morning in the Dan bloc and Tel Aviv. An Israeli drone was shot down near Tehran.
https://x.com/yossi_melman/status/1935907887722697151
@Magnus and others, is it true that the two-week timeline mentioned by Trump coincides with the timeline Iran is projected to exhaust its missile arsenal/capability?
I don’t know. I would read absolutely nothing into Trump’s 2 weeks. It is the same he said more than 4 weeks ago (that Russia had 2 weeks, and then he would make a decision). And nothing has happened (again!) It’s just meaningless words to kick the can down the road. It’s Trump, not a serious person. He is worried about MAGA backclash if he enters the war. He may or may not do so tonight or tomorrow or never. Besides, he said within 2 weeks. But its meaningless, as it makes no strategic sense. In theory, if you wanted to join the war and you are the US, you do as fast as you ready to give Iran the least time possible to prepare. But Trump isn’t a strategist.
Also, the missiles Iran is using against Israel isn’t the same ones they would use against US bases closer by. Iran has thousands of short range missiles designed to hit it’s neighbours (with US bases in them).
It depends on Trump’s mood. If Kurila and Ratcliffe is the last one he has talked to that sounded convincing, then he’ll bomb. If it’s JD Vance, then he won’t.
Spot on 
Yes, with Trump, you better hedge your bets.
2 days ago, I was totally convinced he would join, since they have spent 100ds of mil dollars shipping an enormous strike force to the region. Normally, that means you go unless Iran quickly submits to demands, but Trump does not follow conventional logic.
I still think it highly likely, but I am no longer sure
Meanwhile, Russia is warning about US nuking Fordow (because Trump the fool, has not taken it off the table, because he is like this) while not so secretly praying that the US will do it. They would absolutely pop champaigne left and right if the US used a tactical nuke and set such a precedent. It would allow them to nuke Ukraine in the future.
The Trump Timeline works like this:
In other words, there is fuck all two week plan except to make him look good or throw someone else under the bus
“Israel’s attack on Iran is the end of international law. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is the way it should be”, — Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Tolstoy.
