The Middle East Thread

I think it was just Qatar.

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https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1937300702558380112
https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1937309493660176814
https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1937302281080451176
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1937311006528536598

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-faces-man-made-drought-water-systems-collapse-unicef-says-2025-06-20/

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https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1937419875200201154

‘They don’t know what the fuck they’re doing’. (And I should know ! )

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First true words that have ever come out of his would. Should have used ‘we’ rather than ‘they’ though

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The day he shows some self reflection, will be the first day ever.

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So to summarize, Iran got 400 Kg of 60% enriched uranium out before the bombing.

Iran now has deeper sites than Fordow, beyond the reach of the ‘bunker buster’ bombs.

Further enrichment can get the uranium to weapons grade in less than a year, perhaps substantially less.

That process can run concurrently with a plan to weaponize.

They have their own nuclear triad: enriched uranium, centrifuge components, and expertise.

Conclusion:
I think Israeli and American actions just made the world a lot more unsafe.

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You missed one important logical element

Iran and the rest of the world now know that the US and Israel will launch an attack on Iran without direct provocation.

That has a certain deterrence value, but it also makes the incentive structure fairly clear. Trump is attempting to impose JPCOA level constraints without any quid pro quo, and will be unilaterally aggressive to do so. Iran essentially needs to establish nuclear deterrence as rapidly as possible.

The ‘rest of the world’ part is the fact that some other powers may now see an incentive in facilitating that deterrence. That has to be an interesting policy discussion in Beijing now, particularly with the plausible deniability of an intermediary in Pakistan.

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Not only does Iran still have 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, but it also appears that the three sites that were bombed were not really “obliterated” and Iran’s nuclear programme could be up and running again in a few months, according to the Pentagon.

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Damage assessments done by the Pentagon were nowhere near as optimistic as White House statements. Now arm’s length assessments are questioning the extent of the damage claimed by the Pentagon

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You don’t have to be in the Pentagon or have access to BDAs to infer that the strikes were nowhere near as successful as Trump is proclaiming.

If he’s bigging something that he did up, then it’s certain that the actual results were underwhelming.

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They’ve been doing that for the past century. America the only country to ever use a nuke, and Israel who are constantly attacking their neighbours

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Track the path Israel took in getting their nuke. It is laughable they could conduct themselves like that and then act indignant at anyone else trying to achieve the security they believed their nukes give them.

Edit wapo did a bit on this a couple of days ago
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/23/israel-nuclear-weapons-iran-united-states/

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:man_facepalming:

I don’t know which is worse; their mindless and meticulous massacre, or their arrogance that their hypocrisy should be considered as justice.

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And they are still calling themselves ‘the most moral military in the world’. :enraged_face:

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They’ve had all the usual attack dogs out there denying point blank this happened, without evidence, on the basis of exactly that. We know it didnt happen because this is not what Israel does. Despite the rest of us knowing that they have a long and well documented history of doing exactly that. Their ability to maintain their “he’s not that sort of player” reputation in the minds of so many is one of those crazy making realities of life.

And now they are investigating themselves and will surely conclude they didnt do it. Because this is not what the Israeli army does.

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On the recent “scandal” in Israel:

The “shocked” and surprised reactions of the Chief of Staff, the Defense Minister, etc., to the settlers’ attack on IDF soldiers explain how deep the misconception and denial regarding Jewish terrorism in the West Bank run. Such events occur almost daily against Palestinians. In most cases, the military stands by. In a few cases, the military collaborates. The difference today was that there was a battalion commander who decided not to stand by and tried to prevent a pogrom. The result was that he and his soldiers were humiliated and beaten.

https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1939066491690741887

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