The Owners - FSG

It’s probably why club mouthpieces are starting to put out articles about the wisdom of Firmino being replaced/reduced role. Or I’m seeing too much in it.

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Did Pearce write that? I saw the same thing. And he was taking a beating this weekend for what looked like a proactive pandering on behalf of FSG to let supporters know we aren’t spending this summer, and especially if we miss out on CL football.

FSG are very blessed to have a manager like Klopp to do what he did with what he did.

EDIT: people don’t realize there is just no money.

And for the record, @AnfieldRdDreamer I’m 100% lockstep with you on this all. FSG missed the boat. I understand there is no money now, I get that and respect why that is, but they missed a really big opportunity 2-3 windows past.

And just so people understand my words, I’m not being critical of our ownership group to make a point, my statements are observational, matter-of-fact.

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Anyone fancy bidding for some Melwood memorabilia:

https://www.grahambuddauctions.co.uk/Liverpool-FC-Melwood-Auction/2021-03-02

I’m not saying the club is strapped for cash but estimating £100 - £150 for a black & white picture of uncle Woy? :crazy_face:

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Bloody expensive dart board that!

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Yes, but it’s still cheaper than a real one:

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I posted multiple bids. But not telling which!

EDIT: I’m going big on the Matip locker door. My youngest son has a “man cave” back home in Berlin so it would be a cool display piece.

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Is it true that FSG actually retrenched the entire medical team at the start of this season??

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Where have you heard that??? :unamused:

To be fair, you are zoomed only into one area that we have not been aggressively spending which is player recruitment, compared to the other clubs. But in no way that the owners or the people running the club have been pausing the many other aspects of the club. I think its not fair to hit the owners on just this one aspect, building the club is alot more than just buying new players. We are all frustrated by what is happening on the pitch, as a club, we are far from perfect but the owners and everyone associated with the club have done more good for the club than credited for.

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I saw it wrongly but LFC’s medical department did see a huge overhaul in its leadership and key members…

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I think it’s important to recognise that we are playing around with supposition based upon conjecture derived from estimates so that we could be wildly wide of the mark, either way.

We have no idea to what extent our media income will be impacted by TV rebate or by our final positions in the Premier League and Champion’s League. And given the way we are currently playing …

It’s difficult to predict which way commercial revenue might vary, and in which direction. Over the last 10 seasons it has grown on average by 17.8% per season, however there have been wild fluctuations season on season, including one season with negative growth and another with effectively zero growth.

I have no idea what impact the pandemic might have, so I’ve just included commercial revenue at the level projected by Deloite for 2019/20.

By far the biggest element of our Operational costs are our employment costs. In 2018/19 these totalled £309.9 million, or 58% of turnover. The departures of Lallana, Lovren and Clyne will have reduced the bill but with Thiago and Jota coming in (with signing fees?), together with one or two improved contracts for key players I don’t see much overall change. There hasn’t been any indication of a players’ pay reduction, so I have assumed that it will remain at or about its previous level.

With the fall in turnover suggested by Deloite this element will represent an even higher percentage of turnover i.e. 64%.

With regard to player trading we have no idea as to how payments, and receipts for players, are structured. Nor do we know how agents’ fees are paid i.e. lump sum or incremental over the duration of the player’s contract.

However we do know (from the statement of cashflows) that the net cash outflow for 2018/19 was £59 million, and for 2017/18 £49 million.

I don’t know how much of a change we can expect in this figure for the subsequent periods, so I have used the average net spend over the last five years of c. £48.7 million.

Finally we have to consider the costs of acquiring tangible fixed assets i.e. final costs for completing the Kirkby training facility which I estimated to be c. £25 million offset by what ever was raised from the sale of the Melwood site (c. £10 million?).

This is an interesting point, and one I’ve been digging into for a little while.

Yes the relaxation FFP rules mean that the owners can put more money into the club, without incurring penalties but I don’t believe FSG have a (substantial) pot of cash to draw upon.

I recall, whilst going through the Mill Finance v. RBS legal documents, reading that NESV’s final offer for the club was the maximum they could live with.

Furthermore it transpired that NESV intended to obtain the proceeds to make their bid by drawing on a new term loan with BofA and on their (currently) undrawn revolver.

So it would appear that NESV/FSG were not sitting on substantial cash reserves, but were reliant upon borrowed funds to complete the deal.

I’m not sure how this situation might have changed much during the intervening period seeing as they haven’t taken a dividend out of the club.

Consequently I suspect that if FSG have to bail us out they might have to borrow the money to do so.

The combined profits, for the seasons 2017/18 & 2018/19 was £139.4 million after tax, most of which came from player sales. (Operating profit for the same periods was a much more modest £7.8 million.)

This does not mean that the club had a combined pot of £139 million to spend. Profit does not equate to cash surplus especially when the profit is derived from player trading.

At the end of May 2019 the club had cash and cash equivalents of £37.5 million. At the same time it still owed the bank £49.5 million, so effectively £12 million in the red, not to mention the outstanding £79.3 million inter-company loan.

Loss of matchday revenue and media revenue are effectively cash losses and impact directly on operating profit and cash flow.

Based upon these various assumptions, and the presumption that repayments on all loans are deferred until post Covid, we could end this season with an availability, including cash and cash equivalents together with the balance of the bank revolver facility of less than c. £40 million.

I really do hope my projections are wide of the mark, even to the point of being made to look foolish, but we are potentially looking at a situation where we might fail to qualify for the Champion’s League, with all that implies regarding loss of income, but lacking the funds to bring in the talent to rectify the situation.

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I’m not sure whether we just have too many injury prone players, our style knackers players regardless of whether we have a top class medical team or not, it’s the training, or the medical team is deficient. Something is wrong though, and it’s not new either. We’ve had significant injury issues for a few years.

I wonder how injury records differ here versus when a player was elsewhere.

On another matter, does anyone know what prize money we got for the last CL group match in Denmark? I did at the time wonder whether us going so strong was because someone on high wanted the prize money. If so, major fuck up, as it might well cost us qualification for it next season. Jota’s absence has cost us at least 6 points.

Regarding the summer, if we fail to reach top 4 the owners have to think long and hard, because living within your reduced means when City have the FFP green light, United always spend, and other benefactor clubs have money, could lead to us really going off it.

I’ve seen enough this season to know that regardless of why, we’ve just got too used to losing, and without a few changes we’re unlikely to get that mentality back quickly.

We need to give serious consideration to the likes of Oxlade, Keita, Shaqiri, Bobby, Origi, Matip, Gomez, Minimino in respect of injury record/availability, quality and even whether they need a new challenge. Some of them, like Oxlade and Origi, are far too comfortable living nice lives whilst barely playing.

Not to mention that Salah will probably want a move, there are rumours of Bayern wanting to take Thiago back after a miserable season here. Gini is off and VVD might take until Xmas to get back up to full level.

With the development of other clubs, our own squad issues, the constant referee undermining of results, and Klopp within sight of the end of his time here, we can’t have a couple of seasons back as a Europa League side. The wolves of the media, referees, supporters of other clubs back in stadiums, will be all over us if we’re a bit iffy.

It’s one thing to hold back on spending in the good times, but FSG will need to consider a way to finance the rebalancing of the squad if they want their asset to not start slipping in value.

Another season like this, or one where we aren’t genuine title contenders, will really kick the stuffing out of the club.

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According to Wikipedia

  • Group match victory: €2,700,000
  • Group match draw: €900,000

Thanks.

Looks like they were going after that 2.7m then.

Somewhat understandable, but not at the expense of what followed in the PL.

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I was absolutely furious at the Mdjitland team selection. Absolutely fucking apoplectic. Haven’t been as pissed off since Rodgers saw off Steven Gerrard’s career with a 6-1 spanking.

It wasn’t the selection in itself that was the problem. It was the way Klopp talked himself into a corner on the fixture congestion issue, and then completely failed to use the dead rubber as such. Made himself look like a hypocrite and voided his point for the rest of the campaign.

And we lost two first team players in the shit show that followed.

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Line vs midgetland was

Kell, TAA, Williams, Fab, Tsimi, naby, clarkson, taki, Salah, Origi, Jota.

Jota needed the game time

Bout time we smashed this myth we went all guns blazing to win that game eh lads

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I don’t think Jota needed the game time. He was getting regular minutes. I don’t think Salah, Trent or Fabinho should have been involved either.

I could have handled the team selection had Klopp not gone to war over fixture congestion. But having made the noise he did, and then not take the opportunity to fiend a reserve side, it was inevitable shit was going to fly in his direction.

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I’m sure the FSG leadership is thinking, planning and putting the plans in motion behind the scene.

FSG developed a blueprint that has worked wonders, in normal circumstances. However, the COVID induced sinkhole means they have to innovate, improvise. The living within our means strategy is a pragmatic approach. But the means has been severely depleted, at least until the beginning of the next season. I’m sure FSG has been weighing out the various strategic and tactical choices it has.

One tactical decision they should make is being less robust in selling players. We have hung on to players like Origi, Wilson, Grujic, Philips in the hope of a better deal that hasn’t happened. I think we have to accept the law of average and not scoff at modest fees (£12m for Wilson) while making a killing (£20m for Brewster).

On strategic level, they really have some bitter pills and each with its own repercussions

  1. Live within your (reduced) means.
  2. Sell off a gem and reinvest that fund.
  3. Inject fund from your own/FSG pocket
  4. Inject fund by (partly) selling FSG share
  5. Naming right for Anfield (yeah, I’m dreading this)
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https://www.football-italia.net/166874/juventus-announce-€113m-loss-so-far-2020-21

I don’t have a clue if this is comparable to Liverpool but if a club of Juventus’ stature and overall position in Italian football can lose so much money, I can only imagine what the accounts of other clubs will look like.

We’ll find out soon enough. Our accounts for last season are being filed in the next few days.

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