Not saying any of this is wrong but, as he seems so adamant, what are Lynch’s credentials in finance to be able to give comment on this?
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I think the article took some things that the owners did for granted. Is FSG obliged to give us an interest free loan back then? They were not so to question why they took a loan this time instead of giving us more interest free loan is taking the good things they have done for granted. FSG is rich, very rich but nothing near what the Middle Eastern owners have to keep on giving interest free loans, they do always have options to grow their money elsewhere instead of giving interest free loans, just like what we would consider when we are dealing with our own money.
I have always believed that there was a sense within the club, including from Klopp, that serious squad building was not required for a few years after winning the CL. The team was in place and this could be rolled for a few years.
The assumption here is that the Stadium and Kirkby prevented squad investment, whereas I think it’s more likely that the assessment of the squad allowed that money to be put in the stadium and Kirby.
Something always forgotten about when talking about our owners is that FSG are a group of investors rather than a single owner. John Henry is responsible for the money that his investors have put into the organisation, first and foremost.
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Tchouameni last season would have made a big difference and Bellingham this one. 
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My sense since 2021 is that FSG just no longer views LFC as being in the ‘invest in’ stage, particularly after the failure of UEFA’s FFP regime to do anything meaningful about ManC. They just aren’t as interested as they were, because they don’t see real opportunities for growth and competitive success beyond what is happening now. The model says LFC strictly pays for itself these days. We are more or less in the same category as the Red Sox.
In particular, they seem far more interested in putting capital into and growing the Pittsburgh Penguins (NHL, 2021 purchase).
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But then is that their pattern? 2021 purchase means the PP need more investment to get them up to speed
I suspect they see the Penguins now as about where LFC was around 2013. Dated facilities, underused brand value, etc. From an investment point of view, dumping £100M into a Bellingham so you can compete in a game that has chronically failed to control costs and promised otherwise is probably not as interesting as building a modern arena and as much as tripling box office revenue. Plus, the NHL model lets them control regional and some online broadcast rights, where the PL compels them to deliver the LFC audience (and therefore revenue) to the likes of ManC.
While LFC is in fundamentally good health, the way forward is not that obvious for them. There aren’t many true problems to fix - yes, the squad needs refreshing, but LFC revenues will be adequate for that as long as done in a disciplined fashion. But is there a way to overhaul City? Probably not. Klopp was the best case scenario, and how much longer will he be around?
In that light, it is somewhat surprising they haven’t been more aggressive in trying to sell. Their mood now though strikes me as patiently waiting for the right time to take the value off the table. Growth priorities are elsewhere.
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This ties in with the “leaked/rumoured” use of the Red Bird capital to offset Liverpool’s covid losses, it was then used to buy the Penguins.
You can argue the point at which they hit this was accelerated due to the failure of the cost controls measures to do anything, but I think we have acknowledge this was always a known end point for their ownership model. As fans we may argue over whether the investment put in is enough, but Utd have shown that at a certain level clubs can compete financially without owners having to pump money into it. So at a point where we have passed Utd in the Deloitte ranking, this doesnt seem like a bad point to have reached with them, or necessarily a point of criticism
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Yes - I think we are really in the Red Sox category now. They will spend big to get the right opportunity, but they simply won’t go toe-to-toe with an oil regime willing to burn money. With cost controls that actually worked, perhaps the curve would have taken a little longer to get there.
Objectively speaking, a $1 into LFC right now is not likely to return much at all, a $1 into the Penguins is looking interesting.
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Aye, I think the one variable to consider though that we have no way of gauging how it factors, is the assumed value of Liverpool to the overall collection of entities that is FSG. I have seen credible analyses suggesting that their model is based on finding the right collection where they bring additive value, and Liverpool FC is the one that, if there is any merit to this, this probably applies to most. The NHL is small beans compared to the worldwide value of european football. And Pittsburgh is not even a large market in that league. There is therefore an argument that investment in the Penguins might have more room for seeing a return in isolation, the room for return in a midmarket NHL team will result in only a blip on FSG’s radar.
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While you are not wrong there, the broadcast factor is a significant one for them because of the considerable value they have in NESN. LFC is almost certainly the most valuable property they have, but I doubt they could develop a plan for investing perhaps $300M that would be compelling. In Pittsburgh, they certainly can.
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Perhaps we should wait a little longer before we say that they will spend big …
LFC revenues are high enough that they will, just like the Red Sox do. But nothing like the Guardiola fullback-of-the-month club
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If the Scum can go for £6Billion… it might just push up the price for LFC
I think they are open to a sale. The issue, given our likely value, is that we would probably attract nation state interest. There would be a backlash, and that would put off would be owners in that category, and would also cause some blowback for FSG.
So right now it feels like it is all a bit stuck.
We can chug along and live off our means, and we will be competitive, but it is asking a lot to win the biggest prizes if improper spending is allowed.
A minor investor might inject capital to boost prospects a bit further, but that won’t be able to win against oil money over the long term.
I think the wind has been sucked out of FSGs sails due to the lack of proper financial governance in the game, and they are a bit stuck in their ownership right now.
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Once the debt around the infrastructure is paid off Liverpool will have huge amounts to spend I think.
We appear to have started to get ourselves back on track after 12 months of what felt total ruderlessness. Gordon being heavily involved appears to be very key.
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Lets hope Man City are found guilty by the EPL for FFP breaches then
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