The Owners - FSG

Weirdly I think this might actually happen…

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Give me either him or Haaland and I’m happy!

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Very interesting from Bascombe in this week’s Telegraph Liverpool newsletter. Not sure if I can reproduce the whole thing here, as it’s for Telegraph subscribers only, but here’s the key excerpt:

“The less enamoured will always see a failure to invest enough when the team struggles as penny pinching.

What is important for Liverpool supporters to remember is the fundamental principles of self-sustenance and seeking value rather than an expensive quick fix will never change under this ownership, albeit FSG have always been pragmatic when funds allowed (as the mega Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker deals underlined).

That’s why reports of FSG receiving new investment, with private investment firm RedBird Capital Partners injecting $750 million for 11 per cent of the company, should not be interpreted as signalling the beginning of a new era. The approach will be no different to what has gone before.

In essence, this is not a deal which is going to lead to Liverpool spending £200 million net in the next three transfer windows.

The same applies to NBA superstar Lebron James becoming a partner in the FSG organisation.”

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Yeah, Pochettino likes to have a tall but lethal forward who can hold up the ball and get his teammates into game.

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Because the place is full of Massholes?

For all of Henry’s tenure, the Red Sox have been big spenders. However, their last guy overspent on older players, leaving them in a bit of bind in terms of how to go forward. They made some hard decisions to help them rebuild and many of their fans lost the plot, forgetting that as little as 2 seasons ago they had the biggest payroll in the sport. Their now supposedly cut price payroll is still objectively large (still about 6th highest), but has been done not to withhold money, but to give them room to go and acquire the new players they need to make a good run during the next couple of years.

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It would be rather depressing if the shareholders are pocketing all the money coming in, specially when there’s an urgent need to inject fund.

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Important to note that it is shareholding in FSG being sold and not LFC so it’s not money coming into the Club that is now being pocketed by the nefarious owners.

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Based solely on the article in the Boston Globe, it looks like less than $150 million of the $750 million investment is actually going to end up in FSG. The remainder, “over $600 million”, is being shared by FSG’s pre-existing shareholders/partners.

If that were to be the case then something like 20% of RedBird’s shareholding in FSG would be from newly issued shares in FSG, while the balance of shares would have been purchased from pre-existing shareholders/partners; each partner will have sold roughly 9% of their shares to RedBird.

The chances of Liverpool seeing any of the RedBird investment in FSG, is less than that of a snowball in hell.

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Yeah, I think the additional capitalization (is it the correct word) will be used in the rumored new ventures.

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But the chances of PSG seeing some dough, when RedBird buys Mbappe…

I see what you are saying!

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100%

You don’t invite more chefs to the kitchen unless you’re about to make the kitchen bigger.

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Personally I think finance will be available to buy players just not at the level we dream about.

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I feel reluctant to post because everything turns so polarised on the matter of the owners.

So will start by first saying that I think they are generally good owners, I agree with 80-90% of what they do. However I think they limit themselves in a far too over cautious manner and have a reactionary view to issues when some proactive planning would help to minimise these issues.

For me the worst area this affects us on the pitch (which is mostly all I actually really care about) is squad recruitment and management.

This report has just been done which shows some light on my concerns;

Now inevitably because I’m mentioning unhappiness over spending there’ll be posters replying soon as to why we can’t go the City route. But I know very few if any fans that ask for that. But when it comes to squad investment to be more than twice as cautious as the next most cautious club? We aren’t operating on anywhere near an even playing field.

Now luckily one huge success story for FSG has been the composition of our recruitment group, the identification, negotiation and acquisition has been so spot on that we have still achieved success. So credit where credit is more than due.

But FSG are going to be faced with some hard choices this summer. The squad needs serious maintenance, possibly a full on rebuild. There are some extremely interesting opportunities that will be available this summer that will never be available again if we don’t take advantage. Next years accounts are almost certainly going to be back to normal. At the end of financial year 2021/22 we would probably still be operating fine even with some significant transfer activity going on this summer.

However that’s going to take FSG being brave and backing the use of future funds that although likely haven’t actually hit the books yet. It also needs then to write off any losses from years 2019/20 & 2020/21. Also we may not make CL which would cost us significantly, however a huge proportion of the blame for that should rest at the cautious nature we have shown in the last few years so to use the negative effects of a cautious approach to champion that cautious approach seems stupid.

FSG are increasing in valuation and a lot of that owes to what they own, particularly us, increasing in valuation and they are set to benefit from that soon. The saying of needing to spend money to make money comes to mind.

If FSG make us wait to recover past losses or to see revenue arrive before it can be utilised we could miss out on some excellent additions at never to be seen again bargain prices this summer. The rebuild could be delayed for a further year which could significantly harm us on the pitch and, almost worse for the future, our reputation in the sport.

We are at a precipice this summer. If we go one way we can quickly recover from the disappointment of this season and be a strong force in the sport for years to come cementing both Klopps legacy as well as extensive revenue increases to more than pay back the spending. Or we can go another way which could see this team age and fade off with the best parts picked off by financially stronger clubs whilst we rely on our world beating recruitment team (unless that gets poached) to assemble another carefully put together squad over the next few years in the hopes it gets to challenge again before Klopp moves on.

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I think that this boat has sailed already. Before covid, fsg were well on their way to maximise all elements of this crazy football world in order to get us at the very top (for instance the deal with Nike being dependent on the number of shirts sold), and also being able to activate really big transfers if necessary. Even a Mbappe deal didn’t seem totally impossible.

But we are now in another world, one in which football clubs can’t make any profit. As long as it remains like that, we’ll be also-rans in financial terms compared with the oil-sheik-clubs. If we miss out on European football, the difference will be even more compounded.

IF at some point the whole football circus gets fully running again (by far not a foregone conclusion, even if many clubs seem to speculate that way), we’ll then have to rebuild from there, and surely fsg will then get the most out of it again. Until then, we’ll have to accustom ourselves to shop at Tesco rather than at Harrods. The kind of deals made in January speak a clear language.

Luckily, Klopp is still with us, and he doesn’t need gazillions to bring in and develop good players as we know.

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There’s an overly simplistic phrase that sort of works given where we will be this summer:

Speculate to accumulate.

If we don’t speculate, the danger is that the value of the overall asset (ugh) will stagnate over the next few years as the team will need to be refreshed, and we might spend a while away from the top table.

If we do speculate, we might refresh the team, replace a couple of aging parts, and sprinkle enough stardust in there to keep us challenging for the next x years. That will reap rewards for the value of the asset (ugh).

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He doesn’t but let’s not pretend that he needed the massive investment of a couple of years ago to kick on. We may not have been where we are without spending over £300 million over a two year period, Klopp still needs backing. Anyone who follows him will need more so. So FSG have a decision to make, back Klopp as he will need it or eventually back someone else more. I think many will be surprised how normal next summer will be, its clubs spending the 2021/22 finances which will be largely or fully back to normal (except France).

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How do we do that!!! Genuine question.

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My personal viewpoint is that it will be a mistake to not speculate. If the owners remain cautious I think it will be an opportunity missed.

We have an opportunity to emerge from this with some momentum, if we are bold.

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My question is, how do we speculate? Do mean being aggressive in the market (buying players)?

Yes. In this sense, speculating means extending yourself in the transfer market a little more than you might have been comfortable with, in order to reap a mid to longer term reward.

Obviously if we flat out don’t have any money, or we have very little, then that’s one thing. But I suspect that with a wealthy ownership group, we have the ways and means to find enough cash to make for an interesting summer in the transfer market.

It would mean the model to date of self sufficiency is tweaked, even if it is only a temporary measure, but I think it is worth doing, in order to accelerate our emergence from covid.

It would carry with it some risk, as it could mean more debt, but I honestly think the risk factor is greater if we do not have a good summer in the transfer market.

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