https://x.com/brianlilley/status/1903221026084823532?s=46&t=o3XUPKxiqJH7KZYdWMCtqg
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At this rate, Carney will be to the right of Max Bernier by Election Day. He’ll be selling Parliament and drilling for oil underneath the CN Tower.
https://x.com/stevenchase/status/1903223203339661511?s=46&t=o3XUPKxiqJH7KZYdWMCtqg
It is not entitely the same though, joining the EU and joining the United States.
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Carney running in Nepean, bordering Poilievre’s seat in Carleton.
Interesting to note that polling shows the same thing in Carleton as the rest of the country - over half of his margin is gone. Still somewhat safe at about 12%, but it was estimated at almost 30% last summer.
Clock has all but started on the Conservatives, either they come up with an effective response to Trump, or they lose - quite possibly very badly. I don’t see a real prospect of changing the ballot question. Maybe they articulate a growth agenda as a response, but that is a difficult position to put forward in the current environment.
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Election campaign starts today, vote end of April. Short campaign, which gives the Conservatives an organizational advantage, but less time to try to shift the ballot question.
One of Poilievre’s biggest problems in the next five weeks is going to the people trying to help him, in this case the Premier of Alberta
In her recent list of demands to avoid a ‘national unity crisis’, the only point that Carney could accede to without an agreement with other provinces would be ending the ban on single-use plastics.
She is threatening the Federal government with a crisis…over plastic straws.
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I think this is going to be close, with the likely outcome being something like 170-180 seats to the winner. I don’t think it’ll be a minority government but I could be wrong.
The Liberals have a slight edge. Carney’s experience as an economist matters but he has zero experience as a politician.
No matter who wins, the next four years may be the most difficult in Canadian history since perhaps 1917 when Ottawa instituted the draft at the violent opposition of Quebeckers.
My vehement opposition to Mark Carney isn’t because he’s a Liberal. It’s because he has spent the last five years advocating policies that would devastate Western Canada for some nebulous goal that would have absolutely no effect on global warming given the actions of the Chinese and Indian governments.
I run a multi-billion dollar pool of capital that invests in, amongst other things, clean energy projects. I have spent years studying this issue, and there is absolutely zero probability that we will hit our net zero targets by 2050. By 2100? Maybe. But absolutely no chance it happens within the next 25 years. To commit to such a policy is woke bullshit lunacy.
I’m watching the country of my heritage - the UK - go down this path. My ancestors are from Kent and many places in Scotland. And everything the British are doing is destroying their economy. Not only are they destroying their economy, this woke fucking bullshit is leaving themselves susceptible to military defeat and invasion by Russia, who doesn’t give a flying fuck about net zero targets.
If Carney wins, the Liberal government has to abandon its net zero targets. It has to stop talking about caps on emissions. Because Western separatism is on the rise, and risks blowing the whole country apart.
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Tell me you have no clue what “woke” means without telling me you have no clue what “woke” means.
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It is really hard to tell, because when polls move as violently as they have, clearly there is a very unusual potential for volatility. In Quebec, we have the very odd fact that the Liberal leader with the weakest French in my lifetime is riding a wave that has him gaining support from soft nationalists, with numbers at least as good as Chretien. That doesn’t feel fundamentally solid, and I think the Bloc has a better chance of getting on the right side of the Trump question than the Conservatives do.
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Yeah, it is such a perfect fit that it does raise eyebrows. I suspect Arya’s absurd play for the leadership (and getting caught with some ‘inconsistencies’) ended up starting this process in motion. There were these questions around him even in 2015 (he won the nomination with a lot of new members who bought memberships in the last week, and the payments were questionable). With the writ being so close I expected him to sail through, but as soon as Arya had his nomination refused, I figured it would be a likely fit for Carney. He hasn’t lived in the riding, but Carney has lived very close to it.
It does set up an interesting battle - Poilievre’s riding is immediately to the south (plus west and east), and with the growth of the suburbs Poilievre’s is not as suburban as it once was, a very large percentage of the electorate is clustered near the border with the Nepean riding.
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In the realm of those who could probably help the Conservatives by not helping, Liz Truss has endorsed Poilievre.
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You absolute fool. Anyone wanting a return on green energy understands how important net zero targets and other pricing signals are in providing a platform for investment in scale which makes (and has made) green energy investments economic and profitable. You have less creditability than a fart in a cave.
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I made my mind up on who to vote for before the last election, nothing has changed for me, new PM, doesn’t matter as my trust has eroded beyond repair. I 100% feel that Carney will do and say anything to win the election and then reverse course towards a more liberal agenda. I think a lot of Canadians feel the same way I do, and if I am correct it will be CP win, just short of a majority as it currently stands.
I think Carney has done a few smart, strategically things in his short tenure, and one of those that has gathered very little press (as far as I can see) is his heavy GTA presence, which I think will be key to the next election. I get the impression that Ontario is very undecided, with the rest of the Country falling along the usual lines, except for BC which I think will shift significantly CP.
Green energy is a long term goal that will not help the next government in the next ±4 years, if there is any chance of an economic revival, green initiatives will have to be scaled down significantly in the short term. I have not read of any solution that doesn’t resort to taking advantage of traditional mining/energy.
I realise this is electioneering, but it does speak volumes about what Trump is prepared to shred for no real reason…
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