It is definitely a location chosen for resonance, and it is definitely an issue that the Liberals want to keep pushing front and center. But the very basic reason for that is the level of anger and sense of betrayal in the Canadian public.
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Clicking the link and the title changes to "spiteful Canadians "
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Just the tip of the iceberg. A huge amount of travel and tourism in general was booked last year, and people don’t want to walk away from deposits, etc. Next year the reduction will be even more dramatic. I expect Florida real estate in some areas is going to approach 2008 collapse numbers - my mother is dumping her Tampa property into a market she knows is falling.
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Somehow I doubt Canadians will give a fuck
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My “in laws” have a summer place about 100 miles south of Tampa in a very popular location. They put it on the market about 2 months ago to downsize and haven’t got a single bite yet. Their realtor is shitting himself at the lack of interest
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Florida is lined up for a real bubble collapse. Increasing costs, an insurance crisis, and now a significant population cutting ties. It isn’t clear who would be buying, so a lot of recent purchasers are going to be underwater. My mother doesn’t particular care if she doesn’t get all of what she paid for it in 2010, notwithstanding the fact she would have gained over $100k had she sold three years ago. Not surprised their realtor isn’t happy.
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Polls continue to show this election slipping away from the Conservatives - seat projections have the Liberals winning a majority of about 7-10 seats now, and winning more seats in every province other than AB and SK. I don’t think Poilievre is getting enough oxygen to turn around an election dominated by the ‘Elbows Up’ theme. Trump is dominating the news cycle, and right now that is just too much of a headwind for the Conservative campaign.
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What does Elbows Up mean? Where does it come from?
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Hockey term
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When you go into a corner to get the puck, in a competitive game you usually have your elbows up so that if someone tries to take you into the boards, they take an elbow to the teeth. In a friendly game, you don’t do that, because you are just friends having fun.
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The polls make no logical sense, I wouldn’t pin your hopes on them being close to accurate. CP will win the election and academics will be left trying to dissect, and wasting time on why the polls are so horribly wrong. Most pollsters and traditional media are so out of touch with the average Canadian that it’s not even more skewed than the USA.
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Already answered, but ill add that its as cringe as democrats pretending to be playing Mortal Kombat.
I don’t see a whole lot of basis in fact for that characterization. Federally, in the 2021 election every pollsters last run was within 1.6% of the actual results, most were less than half that margin of error. For the recent Ontario provincial snoozefest, the margins of error were a little larger, most of them overpredicted the provincial PCs by about 2% versus the results. It was sort of a Conservative trope in 2021 that the polls were wrong and pollsters were out of touch…and then they lost by and large by what the pollsters said they would. I am just not seeing the systematic failure.
The two interesting elements right now are what voters are deciding on - an aspect that makes it very clear that the numbers could swing very quickly - and the seat prediction models. Right now the 338 model is predicting a modest 4% aggregate lead for the Liberals is going to translate into a 187 seat majority versus the 126 for the Cons. That is a fairly dramatic ‘efficiency’ in converting votes to seats.
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It has been traditionally reliable, however the reason I don’t think it is this time, is that the consensus is all over the place, it’s polling chaos. I liken it to the very well respected and accurate pollster in the US election that predicted a democratic blowout in the deeply conservative Iowa. I don’t think the change in Liberal leadership has helped the polling, it has imo skewed the results drastically. It might correct before the election to reflect a more accurate outcome, I just dont think it will.
It’s a perfect phrase for the circumstances. It deserves wider socialisation.
Without having seen the polls in question, just based on what @Arminius has said, and what Wikipedia has on it, it’s not that it’s “all over the place”, it’s that the swing has come in just the past month, and it’s a massive swing. So if you look at it in terms of just polls from the last two months it looks as though it’s all over the place, but when you look at the temporal trend, I’m not sure there’s that much reason to believe that there’s that much uncertainty the way you’re portraying it to be.
Is that due to Poilievre being a dick or the impending annihilations of the NDP?
I absolutely loathe Poilievre, from all the way back when he was just a Conservative Party HQ hack. But I don’t think his failings are the first mover, so to speak, although they do starkly limit how effective his response has been. The Conservatives were perfectly positioned to refight the 2021 election, very focused on economic issues (especially the carbon tax) and exploit voter fatigue with Trudeau. Trump blows up, Trudeau steps down, Carney drops the carbon tax the first day, and two+ years of Conservative preparation is out the door. Worse, their style (Poilievre’s in particular) has been obviously imitative of Trump. Their millions spent trying to define their opponent has done more to define themselves for the purposes of this election.
Poilievre’s fundamental problem is that Trump is now the ballot issue. That is actually the NDP’s problem as well. They are both struggling to find a way to be relevant, differentiate themselves from the Liberals, and not come off as negative. Poilievre is coming off as negative, the NDP as irrelevant. Neither are working.
This is a decent piece - Teneycke is sort of a second-wave Harper guy, not in the inner circle in 2004, but moved into it during the government years.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/top-conservative-strategist-poilievre-lose-1.7495524
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This is an example of what I mean when I say both the Conservatives and the NDP are struggling for political ‘oxygen’.
This is good, effective and evocative political advertising. There isn’t actually anything directly connected to the Liberal Party in it, no reason to vote Liberal is set out. Yet it is the major ad they are running this week.
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