So , Do the same what Trudeau did then ?
What happened to Nostradamus?
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I changed my prediction between that post and the final results. And just like all Nostradamus predictions, it was mistranslated.
Yes. It is a bit iffy though as the NDP are no longer official party so they might not support him in order to trigger a new election, in order to attempt to regain official status.
Yet it happens all the time. Harper held Martin in 2004, 18 months later formed a government, gained in the election two years and a bit later. Clark beat Trudeau in 1979, Trudeau won a majority in 1980.
We are definitely in an odd period of division, where even an election like the fairly binary one last night hasn’ t been sufficient to produce a minority. I really did not expect Quebec to hand Carney a majority only to have the GTA kick it away.
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Or throw the right Bloc members the right bone…there are 5-6 who are basically the Dairy Farmers of Quebec party. Supply management…
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I hope this government gets the 3 seats they need for majority, seems there are seats that need to be recounted? A majority government that can make quick and decisive actions to counter the criminal down south.
Btw just curious for those who likes analysing politics, do you think Trudeau would have survived if he held on for a while longer and turn the tide by doing what Carney did, rallying people against Trump’s rhetorics?
It is possible, but it seems unlikely. This will be a test for Carney, but from a situation where there are multiple options - even possibly some pragmatic Conservatives on some issues.
Not a chance. Trudeau was too badly out of step with too many voters. I dislike my local MP intensely, if the ballot choice was Poilievre versus Trudeau..I would have gone for a walk. Trump was a critical element in this election, but so was the absence of Trudeau. Poilievre never really adjusted to facing someone other than Trudeau, his entire persona in the past 3 years has been attacking Trudeau. If Trudeau had not stepped away, I expect the Trump effect might have spared the Liberals the disaster they were heading toward, but I have no doubt they would have been soundly defeated. Certainly, Quebec would have seen gains by the Bloc instead of losses.
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Are the Liberals going into a coalition with BQ or NDP?
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Since the NDP won’t be recognised as a party caucus, can the Liberals negotiate with individual MPs?
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Where is Toro?
There isn’t much of a tradition of coalition government. The Trudeau government had a supply and confidence agreement with the NDP, but all Ministers were Liberal. The Carney Liberals will need to seek support vote by vote. That can certainly be done on an individual basis,though I expect their first instinct will be at the party leadership level
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Canada needs to focus on the criminals within its own borders. If Carney makes inroads (mainly mining) to the benefit of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and even BC, then the threat of a ‘51st’ state is irrelevant. If, Alberta, continuously keep getting fucked, then that will be the first domino for independence (not 51st). Trump only cares about western part of Canada as they have a lot of what Trump (USA) require from a raw materials pov. Eastern Canada (where I live) is a charity case when compared to the potential wealth of the west
The liberals do not need their own majority to implement policies. If they want more liberal policies(social services, environmental) they get help from the NDP, if they need more conservative policies (mining, etc) they get help from the CP. The only possible issues they will have will be extra tax policies. They dont need help on the carbon taxes as these are already in place, and I dont think they need “permission” to increase these, not 100% sure.
No. The liberal party comeback (~30 points down) to nearly winning a majority, is most likely the biggest comeback in political history, in the world. Trudeau was done, his greatest achievement was to leave the party at the perfect time. Carney vs Trump is a lot more effective as Trudeau already had dealings with Trump, and was essentially his bitch. The Trump threat is not real.
I think Trump honestly wanted the Liberals to win, and I dont think it was from a position of who is easiest to deal with. If I had to take a guess, I think it would be more based on who will be more likely to allow western Canada to unleash itself, and that would have been the conservatives. The Liberal party could still do this, however its very unlikely it will be done to a degree that the west wants.
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https://x.com/atrupar/status/1919839489611923768
Edit
https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1919840941202145690
IMO this went the way I would have expected no matter who the PM was going to be. Canada is not in a bargaining position at all. I might be different if Alberta had the option of shipping its product in any direction another than south. We have very little leverage.
1 vote, after judicial recount. 1 vote.
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It is remarkable. I dimly recall a NY Congressional district about a century ago decided by a single vote, which was used as an example in a rational choice course I took in grad school. Terrebonne will be a rather more current example.
I believe there are still four ridings going through a judicial recount.
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Canadian infrastructure is back!
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Lots of companies/investors never bothered because it took over 10 years for final approval (mining), so hopefully the speeding up of the process is reduced to a year or two.
Not true, the mining sector is quietly ramping up and has been for a few years now. Artemis and Red Chris are two huge projects ongoing
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