The Referees or The Twelfth Man

Swearing?

Caught watching porn?

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They forget to remove Coote from the VAR room before the camera crosses to them?

There is one who I am 100% is reading a book during the game. Iā€™ve noted they havenā€™t once interfered in the games Iā€™ve seen.

Next time he comes up Iā€™ll highlight him.

Rulebookā€¦ they should all do it :0)

Iā€™m guessing Tsimikas will start that game thenā€¦

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Itā€™s the League cup, so that is quite a possibility anyway.

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A referee who is perfectly happy to let assaults on our players go unpunished, a linesman who is happy to assault one of our players himself and a bloke on VAR who clearly despises the club.
All boxes ticked.

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Yeah but itā€™s Spurs.

Good process boysā€¦

Even more worrying we have Oliver, Kavannah and pawson for the match against manure Virgil will have to wear armour plated shin pads.

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Iā€™m more concerned of that knobend linesman who comes along with him than anything 4th official Pawson would do.

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Paul Tomkins has been busy again:

This one is about foul balance. The number of fouls given for or against a team by particular referees. I always take Tomkins stuff with a pinch of salt, but he does have numbers and not individual freeze frames and whataboutery.

My takeaway is that this could account for the number of teams whose players throw themselves to the floor every time one of ours goes anywhere near them. Itā€™s a coached tactic, because it works.

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Thanks for sharing.

Confirmation, if any were needed, that there is demonstrable bias against Liverpool. Of course, some will still try to blame it on incompetence rather than corruptionā€¦

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I made it about halfway through before I gave up.

It does not read as an analysis, more like a bunch of numbers that Tomkins cherry-picked to support his grievances.

Iā€™m not even sure about his central metric, foul balances. In isolation it would tell you not that much at all. Playing styles, possession, aggression, so many things that would muddy the waters a lot.

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And just to be clear, Iā€™m not saying that it therefore disproves that the referees are biased.

Iā€™m saying itā€™s just noise that doesnā€™t prove anything, really.

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My take from it was the players throwing themselves down. The thing with this, is that on occasion they mistime their dive and give away possession. On average, it may work in our favour. As a fan, I find it bloody awful to watch.

I donā€™t watch enough of the Premier League to know how prevalent this is. I gave up watching anything other than our games a long time ago, and the random nature of the refereeing was a large part of that. You donā€™t see this in the Bundesliga. In fact, for the most part, you just donā€™t notice the refs.

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Does it not put flesh on the bones of what we already know?
The Atwell stuff in isolationā€¦given his history with Liverpool, was it not predictable that at least one major decision would go to Spurs on Wednesday?

Tomkins gets derided and invalidated by Liverpool supporters, despite producing consistent findings over the years. I get your argument about factors that muddy the waters on his latest dataā€¦but given what we are regularly witnessing do you not consider his basic findings to be credible?

His stats on fouls vs Mo Salah are staggering. Bordering on criminal. Wonder why this trend is allowed to continue with no form of forensic questioning?

I get that Tomkins data is Liverpool driven, that his rationale is to consistently prove the wrongdoing against the club.
But this data is important, when you watch what happened on Wednesday. This data underpins what we already know.

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What Tomkins shows is correlation, not causation. I like the fact that he uses data rather than cherry-picked stills to make his points. His conclusions (in fact the linked article is so scattershot, Iā€™m not sure he makes any) donā€™t really pass the full test.

The data could be skewed because the refs are bent, it could also be skewed because opposition teams are using black arts, it could also be noise - although he does make mention to percentiles somewhere in there to at least make the point that certain things are statistically significant.

One interesting point he makes is that inexperienced refs are more likely to give fouls than more experienced ones. That would rather give that is there was institutional bias, it doesnā€™t quite work the way he thinks.

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Iā€™d be a lot more convinced if he published his data and the statistical analyses. He makes allusion to the latter, and suggestions at probability (ā€œ1-in-1000ā€) but doesnā€™t actually show us the p-values of anything, nor does he even demonstrate any comparison of distributions.