The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

I guess I am just a cautious and a bit conservative when it comes to war :wink:

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Thanks as always @Magnus. Honestly the Queen’s death has done bugger all in terms of stirring emotions in me, but those liberation videos certainly did.

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My guess is that UKR will slow down their attacks in Kherson, and turn it in to an artillery/logistics fight while focusing on the Kharkiv sector.

I do think they operate independently of each other but its possible you are right.

Outstanding

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Just the outskirts but still

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It appears they were planned that way, but one of two things would appear to be about to happen around the cauldron battle unfolding. Either the Russians will counterattack in the Kharkiv sector, in which case UKR will want to have reserves to face that, or they won’t - and UKR will have unhinged the entire Russian line, facing the choice of driving to the frontier and rolling up the Russian rear, or turning soutthward.

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If they are in the outskirts, drone-corrected Excalibur 155mm rounds are enough to neutralize Kupyansk as a logistics point. In the near-term, that is all UKR forces need.

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Yes, and notice that they have cut the road south to Izum all the way at the river :slight_smile:

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Pro Russian

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Any chances of Ukrainian air defence taking those two planes down?

Leaving the bridge at Oskil to the east of Izyum intact looks suspiciously like an enticement for the Russians to start to withdraw.

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Its helicopters and I think that would be a bit strange. It is Said ukrainian air defences have saturated the front , but thats to stop RU air force interdicting and flying CAS. Maybe unlikely to get a BUK in range inside the pocket. Seems risky. But those helicopters are not safe from artillery fire and perhaps even manpads

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Yeah, and I think that makes sense if the primary goal is to recapture territory. Destroying the RU army in Izum would be more daunting and risky probably.
But its also possible they have just not been able to destroy it yet

I think that is actually the objective though. Just easier to do that if you can get them started with a withdrawal, abandoning their initial MLR and any prepared positions. When you close the circle, defenders get desperate, sometimes that makes it harder than it needs to be. If they have hope of escaping, they start running and can lose cohesion quickly - that bridge makes me think of the Falaise Gap.

In terms of strategic objectives, while territory is important to Ukraine, laying an outright humiliation on the Russian Army is probably more significant than a thousand square kilometres. Russia was already struggling to make good on those losses, a major loss might cause a crisis.

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All true…

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Julian Røpcke is famously unreliable but he is good with geolocating. I try always ignore his analysis though, since he combines incredible arrogance with stupidity and lack of knowledge.

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