Yes, I’m hoping it’s doubling down on bluff and that to make his speech in such a way as could portray him as unhinged was deliberate. If the west believe he’s got things emotionally in control then that would be reassuring but if the west were made to think he’s not all there then that could scare the shit out of us enough to want to back away…
I’m not fully convinced. If he really is as unhinged as he’s appears in this speech, he woudn’t have waited until now to mobilize or escalate to the point of nuclear use. He can bark and foam at the mouth all he wants, the reality is that he is in a difficult position and he knows it. He’s losing ground on the battlefield while thousands of his countrymen are trying to flee the country.
His bombastic delivery of incoherent, vile ramblings won’t change that.
It’s fucking ridiculous to be contemplating and proliferation of nukes isn’t what we all want but yeah, this never would have happened if Ukraine gave up its nukes so. They should build their own. That way, they can threaten Russia with their own stick and escalation between NATO and Russia can possibly be averted that way.
Don’t confuse this for supporting Hungary’s position but the sanctions don’t appear to be having a particularly tangible effect? Sure, there’s an element of slow burn to them but shouldn’t we have started to see a much bigger impact by now?
if anything is to be learned by this, is to stop overseas production of much of your consumables and start domestic production and manufacturing again. stop relying on China for damned near everything… this is how you become reliant on the teat.
The problem is that the more he loses on the battleground, the more unhinged he behaves.
On the other hand, there’s no way that the west will back down now. Against what almost everyone could see before the war, the Ukrainians are now pounding the Russian army. That isn’t to change soon. It will take years for Russia to have a performing army in sufficient numbers. And Nato aren’t even directly involved yet, apart from selling weapons to Ukraine. They will continue their political and indirect military support, no matter what Putin says.
So, it’s indeed escalation time I’m afraid. Will Putin press the button? Hopefully he’s not foolish enough to start something he then wouldn’t control anymore. One bomb on Ukraine or elsewhere would inevitably result in one equivalent bomb on Russia. I don’t think he’ll go that far.
But the level of bile he spouts against western countries is unheard of. Calling us satanists? Please… not even the USSR reps did go that far. That rhetoric, whether he means it or not, is dangerous in itself. It will activate all most extreme and unhinged tendencies in his country. And with that, he burns all remaining bridges with us Europeans, his direct neighbours (the bridges with the US are already burnt since some time).
He has so much to lose with this polarizing va-banque game… Far more than us imo. As long as the nukes stay out of the game. If they come in, we’ll obviously all be the losers.
It is terrifying to contemplate the possibility that Biden must already have been briefed on first strike possibilities - particularly given that we know that there are prisoners in Ukraine drawn from the Russian Strategic Forces. I think we are closer to the brink now than at any time in the early 1980’s, probably closer than ever before other than the Cuban Missile Crisis.
*Last year, despite laudable efforts by some leaders and the public, negative trends in nuclear and biological weapons, climate change, and a variety of disruptive technologies—all exacerbated by a corrupted information ecosphere that undermines rational decision making—kept the world within a stone’s throw of apocalypse. Global leaders and the public are not moving with anywhere near the speed or unity needed to prevent disaster.
Leaders around the world must immediately commit themselves to renewed cooperation in the many ways and venues available for reducing existential risk. Citizens of the world can and should organize to demand that their leaders do so—and quickly. The doorstep of doom is no place to loiter.*
Conventional wisdom dictates that this was more posturing on his part to get the other side to back down but no one knows what’s truly going on in that botox infused head of his. He talked about destiny and the historically greater Russia. If he actually believes that he’s Peter the Great’s reincarnation, we are doomed.
Meanwhile, Zelensky as a response has already declared that he’ll seek Ukraine’s urgent admission into NATO. The only thing certain is that the situation just got a lot worse.