This post is brought to you from 2014.
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Always good
@Arminius , I see you are online. Could you please help me with hiding my post so it has a warning for sensitive readers ? I have forgotten how to do it.
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When is NATO going to make a show of force. Letting a complete twat threaten everyone and everything like Putin did you have to send a message.
This message should be ‘we are not amused, we are not scared, look at what we can do to you arsehole’.
I think a floatilla in the black sea would have many more Russians running for saftey from becoming Putin’s cannon fodder.
Also NATO might think about protecting shipping in that area so Russias plundering stops.
Anyway I’m angry again and have a keyboard!
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I dont know what the answer is right now. Ukraine may defeat Russia on the ground but that loon Putin might go full nut job and wipe the country off the planet. Any escalation from NATO etc. he goes full loon again.
I dont see how this ends in any satisfactory way at all. Other than a coup within Russia.
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I think the message needs to be got to Putin (privately) that escalation will be met with overwhelming force and any use of nuclear weapons will result in complete Russian obliteration. He has to know that pressing the button, even once, means he and his country are evisorated. It’s the only way to play this. His only option re nuclear is either all in first strikes against US and European targets or no use at all. The US can be comforted by this position: if Putin really wants to seek nuclear war and Russian supporters provide no resistance then there isn’t much that can be done, although I think we know that the Russian arsenal won’t perform per paper expectations.
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I was just reading somewhere an opinion by a Russian analyst. She was saying that Putin’s position now is basically ; ‘Give us Ukraine or there will be nuclear war’. Her opinion was that this stance is one shared by very few either in the Russian elite or the military and that sometime soon it becomes untenable.
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The scare tactics don’t work anymore and he’s desperate, throwing the kitchen table. Already trying to paint himself as some kind of martyr for the ‘right’ cause, thinking about legacy/his place in history. I mean, if he’s going to fail, I’m pretty sure he’d rather be remembered as having failed in some massive, idolized fight against the entire West and everything it stands for than over some ‘military operation’ against a smaller neighbour.
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I dont disagree, but that is a really shit “most favourable” option to have on the table. It’s quite a scary one to be honest. Any nuclear strike is just awful on so many counts and relying on the Russian nuclear arsenal to perform as poorly as their other assets is a horrible gamble.
The encirclement of Lyman seems to be complete, by some accounts. The fallout of the Russians captured or killed in the cauldron will remain to be seen. They waited far to long to withdraw, or denied permission to withdraw, and their escape route was already under Ukrainian fire control so a rat run must have been pretty hellish. Also seems attempts to relieve the envelopment from outside the cauldron were unsuccessful.
I suppose we await more confirmation, but ja.
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Just wondering how it all ends.
Let’s imagine Russia takes too many military losses on the ground, which is already going that way, and let’s imagine the mobilization of the country isn’t a success, which is already going that way seeing the protests, and even if thousands more get to the front lines, they aren’t well equipped to prevail.
So… assuming Russia is chastened, via conventional warfare, what comes next?
Will they see an attack on the annexed parts of Ukraine as a direct attack on Russian soil? Thus giving Putin the green light (in his own addled brain) to use a tactical nuke?
Let’s imagine Putin deploys a tactical nuke.
Where will it be?
What will be the response?
Will his own generals remove him, before it escalates further?
On another note, even though Russia’s conventional military has been sub par, you would have to think that their long range nukes have been kept operational, or enough of them have, to bring about MAD.
That must be avoided at all costs.
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