Not sure how well the pull out went, quite a few indications it is a rout.
Video of Ukrainian forces in Lyman itself.
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That is what worries many and probably part of the reason why he escalates and goes all in. It is easier to wage and sell the war if it is percived inside Russia as against NATO, and if enough people in Russia believes that they are under threat from NATO, then this could go on for many years.
There is also the danger that a battlefield defeat will be used as an excuse to use tactical nuclear weapons now that “they are fighting inside Russia” (what the Russian nuclear doctrine calls for).
I don’t believe he will order nuclear strikes, but it’s a possibility if he continues to go all in.
Chilling account from last night from an Ukrainian soldier part of a recce group amsbushing fleeing RU forces.
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Bombing of Belkek air base, Crimea:
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From the Belkek explosion. Seems it was a Ru plane exploding
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A Pro-Russian account of the fall of Lyman
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Or, alternatively, the same Potemkin village they have been displaying for their ground forces has been happening with their strategic forces. Maintenance checks reported as done, contractors paid, etc, etc., and seals failed 10 years ago without anyone noticing. Personnel have already been captured in Ukraine having been redeployed from their strategic missile forces.
So maybe not MAD, maybe not even reliable enough to hit their targets, but enough to produce a catastrophe, to be sure.
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On the matter of nuclear weapons, Norwegian intelligence, and everyone else I have heard from, have always noted that throughout the difficult economic years in Russia when funding was cut from the army, they have consistently pushed what they need of funds into their nukes. There is no reason to assume that their nukes are as rusty and ill-maintained as their conventional arms. Their Strategic forces have been consistently funded in a way other arms of the RU forces have not.
No one wants to find out if it’s a Potemkin village or not. You can’t take that chance and it doesn’t matter anyway, as they have enough launchers and nukes to destroy what they need to destroy even if a large percentage does not work.
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Fantastic trolling
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I hope we never get to the point of finding out, from battlefield experience, how depleted their nuclear arsenal is.
I’m pretty sure they have loads of old crap that might not be usable, but they will also have some of it that is maintained and ready to go, and will probably also have some hypersonic stuff, given their recent tests and boasting about that.
It doesn’t take too many nukes to be deployed before we are back to the Stone Age.
If they are getting their asses kicked conventionally, is their next move a tactical nuke? And if so, where? And what will the response be?
Any takers on that? (It’s just speculative, but it seems as though it might plausibly happen).
Funding was only part of the problem, as we have seen. It is unlikely that they are rusty and comparable to the conventional arms, it is equally unlikely that they have been maintained to the standards they nominally set for themselves.
No one wants to find out. But did anyone want this war outside Russia? Putin is forcing his counterparts to consider these questions.
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And an article found in the previous twitter thread.
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No idea how verified/accurate this video is, but that’s a big explosion in any case.
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