The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

I did read it , obviously.

That probably has something to do with it.

France has given 25% of its mobile artillery to Ukraine , and France also has other active military commitments in the Sahal and has no quick way to fire up reserves. (Something Stoltenberg referred to yesterday.)

Germany doesn’t have the same problem and might be counting its contributions differently. In any case it just comes across as more pointless France bashing to my ears.

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Hunting air defence resources just one more sign that Ukraine wants to try to cut the Russian position in half somewhere in the Zaporizhzhia area. Tokmak would be a sound guess.

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Drone duel.

Seen some more images of the bridge and given it some more thought. I think, with a healthy pinch of salt, that the blast lifted the bridge off its supports and shifted it away from the rail bridge and basically dumped part of it in the sea. There’s also very little in the way of bracing of the main members. No surprise if the blast buckled those main beams.

I hadn’t realised that the bridge was a Russian designs built structure. It looks pretty lightweight if I’m honest and quite modular so it wouldn’t surprise if a fix was relatively straight forward. Even moreso if you’re trying to make a political statement.

I don’t think you’d see a bridge like that in the UK. Not a permanent one.

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What do you make of the damage to the rail bridge (if any). It looks like a secondary fire on the train’s tanker.

Looks like the most feasible idea. Unless something else, got plastered over the bridge. Shrapnel igniting something in the train tanks perhaps? I’ve seen one picture that shows 4 separate carriages on fire.

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I’m guessing that truck was a rolling fertilizer bomb, similar to what the Oklahoma City Bomber used to blow up that federal building 20+ years ago. may have had some armaments in there as well, but would make sense that the shrapnel from the explosion would puncture the tanks and the resulting fireball ignited the contents.

Also the same type of explosion that was Beirut two years ago

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02361-x

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Fascinating and I agree with most of it. The charring does certainly suggest an above deck explosion but it would take quite a blast to actually shear the main beams. But it clearly appears to have done so. The dragging effect is correct.

One thing that isn’t covered is the degree of lateral movement during the explosion / collapse. I think this also played a part. Oddly it didn’t effect the adjacent deck. That suggests to me the blast was extremely focussed in some way (I’m not an explosives expert)

The picture below shows the deck on the pier in the distance having been displaced nearly its full width to the right. That lateral movement is also visible in how the main beam in the foreground has splayed outward but that could also be a buckling effect of the beam over the pier that the phot is taken from.

I’m convinced the lightweight nature of the structure played a part in this as well.

image

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They even found some dwarfs to hold the Ukrainian flag. :joy:

The truck passing looks circumstancial to me now. Videos seem to indicate the blast coming from beneath the bridge, also blast infront of said truck. From the videos wht went up 1st was incredibly hot (lots of white stuff flying around) that’s no fertilizer bomb.
Still it’s up for discussion and interesting.

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I cant rule that out. If the truck was carrying the explosives it timed it really well to set off the explosives at midspan. You’d be doing pretty well to know if you were at that point without some form of reference.

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Could it be an unmanned boat from underneath? Anything is possible. I know they have been using UAV boats for a few months now. Could they get one to the bridge unscathed (past the Russian Navy) and loaded with enough explosive? Will the find wreckage underneath the bridge sections?

Every time I see a new video I change my mind. I’m not going to comment any more. Well except to say it was really hot (more than conventional stuff so will go with metal additive).

Have only seen two video. One from above bridge deck (cctv) and other is a recording of screen showing cctv from train bridge. Neither are conclusive. Whatever it was, it had massive force.