A report from the Black Bird Group. I rate them very, very highly in terms of analysis.
The Russian Order of Battle (extremely well reasearched):
https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1955381703423275028
A note on why the Russian 51st Combined Arms Army has so much more infantry than what is common by an excellent source:
https://x.com/moklasen/status/1955380801455132954
In case people have forgotten or in case someone never knew; DPR = Donetsk People’s Republic (volunteers many of them, but vast majority are/were forcibly conscripted Ukrainians from the Donbas).
Playfra claims UA source related that:
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1955382066448830690
Unclear which elements are attacking west into Dobropillia though
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1955377510813929826
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1955410921389691232
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1955411796816433302
I hope Black Bird Group is correct and not the sources of the brilliant French kid.
https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1955358145913688323
The thread is of course highly alarming.
Grok translation of key points:
"The Ukrainian army’s situation in Dobropillia isn’t bad—it’s catastrophic. After 2 years of intense pressure, Russian forces have deeply infiltrated the Donetsk front.
Deepstate_UA’s surprise map update shows a sudden ~10km Russian advance east of Dobropillia, a key mining town and planned Ukrainian hub. Analysts and soldiers confirm the alert.
I’ve mapped 1,400 Russian air strikes from July 11-Aug 11, targeting from Myrnohrad to Kostiantynivka, accelerating the breach.
This stems from Donbass III offensive (Oct 2023), with 3 local breakthroughs: Ocheretyne (Apr 2024, 8km push), Prohres (Jul 2024, capturing Novohrodivka and collapsing south Donetsk), and now the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway (Apr 2025, 8km moto advance, splitting the front).
Ukrainian forces weakened by losses, mobilization issues, and failed offensives (Zaporizhia, Kursk, Krinky).
Russian tactics shifted: No tanks; small 2-8 soldier groups infiltrate on foot/motos, bypassing positions, creating ‘checkerboard’ fronts and gray zones.
In Pokrovsk center, dozens of Russians infiltrated, forcing retreats. The deeper breach pierced the ‘New Donbass Line’ via gaps (roads/rivers), though unconfirmed road cuts.
It’s a breakthrough since ~July 21, with steady progress. Zelenskyy acknowledged it; reinforcements (1st Azov Corps, 92nd Mech Brigade, Rubizh Brigade) arriving to contain.
Parallel advance east of Rodynske threatens Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad. Anti-tank ditches limit exploitation, but front segmentation risks key cities.
No total collapse yet, but significant vulnerabilities exposed."
I was worried about this.
There is no Superman coming. Trump dominates the media with his antics, people fall for it.
This is the greatest psy-op + cashgrab of all time.
Some good news from the front. I waited with posting this even though I have known for a few days. But I wanted to be sure.
Is that the Ukrainians pushing back?
Yes