A report from the Black Bird Group. I rate them very, very highly in terms of analysis.
The Russian Order of Battle (extremely well reasearched):
https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1955381703423275028
A note on why the Russian 51st Combined Arms Army has so much more infantry than what is common by an excellent source:
https://x.com/moklasen/status/1955380801455132954
In case people have forgotten or in case someone never knew; DPR = Donetsk Peopleās Republic (volunteers many of them, but vast majority are/were forcibly conscripted Ukrainians from the Donbas).
Playfra claims UA source related that:
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1955382066448830690
Unclear which elements are attacking west into Dobropillia though
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1955377510813929826
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1955410921389691232
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1955411796816433302
I hope Black Bird Group is correct and not the sources of the brilliant French kid.
https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1955358145913688323
The thread is of course highly alarming.
Grok translation of key points:
"The Ukrainian armyās situation in Dobropillia isnāt badāitās catastrophic. After 2 years of intense pressure, Russian forces have deeply infiltrated the Donetsk front.
Deepstate_UAās surprise map update shows a sudden ~10km Russian advance east of Dobropillia, a key mining town and planned Ukrainian hub. Analysts and soldiers confirm the alert.
Iāve mapped 1,400 Russian air strikes from July 11-Aug 11, targeting from Myrnohrad to Kostiantynivka, accelerating the breach.
This stems from Donbass III offensive (Oct 2023), with 3 local breakthroughs: Ocheretyne (Apr 2024, 8km push), Prohres (Jul 2024, capturing Novohrodivka and collapsing south Donetsk), and now the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway (Apr 2025, 8km moto advance, splitting the front).
Ukrainian forces weakened by losses, mobilization issues, and failed offensives (Zaporizhia, Kursk, Krinky).
Russian tactics shifted: No tanks; small 2-8 soldier groups infiltrate on foot/motos, bypassing positions, creating ācheckerboardā fronts and gray zones.
In Pokrovsk center, dozens of Russians infiltrated, forcing retreats. The deeper breach pierced the āNew Donbass Lineā via gaps (roads/rivers), though unconfirmed road cuts.
Itās a breakthrough since ~July 21, with steady progress. Zelenskyy acknowledged it; reinforcements (1st Azov Corps, 92nd Mech Brigade, Rubizh Brigade) arriving to contain.
Parallel advance east of Rodynske threatens Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad. Anti-tank ditches limit exploitation, but front segmentation risks key cities.
No total collapse yet, but significant vulnerabilities exposed."
I was worried about this.
There is no Superman coming. Trump dominates the media with his antics, people fall for it.
This is the greatest psy-op + cashgrab of all time.
Some good news from the front. I waited with posting this even though I have known for a few days. But I wanted to be sure.
Is that the Ukrainians pushing back?
Yes
Anyone still interested in the grind or the industrial bombing, or the political development or the frontlines or something else?
I stopped posting long ago due to lack of interest and because posting regular updates was too time consuming. So I went over to just posting about the less interesting American circus and sometimes the Middle East instead (regarding non-footie topics), as there is interaction and interest there.
In hindsight, I supect I posted too much information in this thread and it became uninteresting for most people because they were completely unable to keep track.
But this is still the biggest ongoing political āeventā in the worldā¦
I suppose since war crimes tends to attract more attention that real development, I can post this from today:
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1970787972099240102
I suppose some my find this interesting from Dmitry Rogozin and Pavel Gubarev (maybe). Which are names that are probably quite familiar to many.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1970471318421180557
https://x.com/visionergeo/status/1970550182749073711
Anyway, Russian deep penetration on Pokrovst north flank was stopped and they are (some of them) in pockets now, having been cut off.
See clip from map:
General, minimalistic gist of it without sourcing is: Russia captures a few kilometers every day, Ukraine bombs a Russian refinery or pumping station every day. The situation is shit for both sides, but Russians are advancing extremely slowly, but generally every day.
Ukraine also took Novotoreske (here, more zoomed in
, but reports are that they were pushed back. The lines are fluid and to say the least.
Map Source for those who want to save it as favorite in browser: DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine
I suppose I can post this and call it a day
https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/1970904154055873021
I will read and follow whatever you decide to post.
Iām interested, but Iām not proactively search for updates.
Thank you. I will try to post a bit updates now and then. But not like before. It was too much, even if I just posted a little bit of what I found to be informative on my twitter-timeline.
Some more war crimes from today
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1970935440699273255
This one was a notable ugly one from earlier this month, where a middle aged man on crutches are hunted by gleeful russian drone crews in their human safari game
https://x.com/Vijesti11111/status/1968708496775397484