It’s certainly worked for us in recent times. Our two sweet spots seem to be either that under 18 market where the relative cost is extremely low where the reward could be huge but the risk is almost. You might get a decent player like Gomez or Elliott, a player you can ship on for huge profit like van den Berg or if they vanish for nothing you’ve lost no more than a few million.
The £30m to £40m plus market does bring a greater degree of certainty and seemingly better results. Think that’s linked to the body of work we look for before we move. A Kerkez just doesn’t have that when he moves to Bournemouth so we’d rather pay £20m more and feel more confident than risk £20m initially.
I do think we might need to have a think about how we could find a way to build that confidence in players who sit between those sweet spots. I’m sure Ian Graham’s book mentioned Mitoma as an example. He was on our radar based purely on the data but the level he was playing at meant he didn’t match our threshold even with the relatively modest price.
It’s a tricky one as the likes of the Dutch or Portuguese league tend to give young players more game time so they get that threshold of games younger but not in as competitive a league and so our confidence in performances translating is diminished.
I think one important thing to remember is that we as fans of Liverpool only notice the successful transfers of other teams. We don’t tend to notice the failures. This influences our perception of the hit rates.
This is no surprise. I’m sure that a club at West Ham’s level, or potentially at their level, will be where Caoimhin will end up. I suppose Leeds would be a possibility after their recent goalie problems if they get promoted that is.
West Ham want to sign Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher, 26, in the summer transfer window. (Daily Mirror, external)
This wouldn’t surprise me if it were to happen. It’s not as if Jurgen is a shrinking violet with no ego. I’m sure being coach of the world’s biggest club would appeal to him. I bet there’s a lad in Liverpool who’s hoping that this happens.
Former Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp, now global head of football at Red Bull, is emerging as a potential replacement for Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid.(Sport - in Spanish)
There’s also this: Bournemouth are resigned to losing Spanish defender Dean Huijsen this summer, but the 20-year-old prefers a move to another Premier League club over a switch to Bayern Munich or Real Madrid . (Talksport)
I still suspect Jurgen’s next job will be managing the German National Team. I think he’d take the job now if Nagelsman left. But it looks like Nagelsman will coach them through the 2026 World Cup.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he held out for Bayern, though Kompany looks like he’s earned his keep there.
I’d be surprised if he chose Real Madrid. But I wouldn’t blame him. They’re a quality side with great talent that might be adding Trent as well.
I would be shocked if he chose any other Premier League club.
Because it’s such fun to speculate, even if it has no basis in reality.
He’s never taken the huge ‘ready made’ jobs like Bayern or Real, he’s always gone for clubs where he could build a team. I can’t imagine him enjoying being a national team trainer either. He wants to be close to his players.
I think the confidence piece of our approach is the most interesting.
The need for players to have played enough games at a high enough level for us to be confident enough to commit the money, and just as importantly the squad place and opportunity cost, superficially makes it seem like bargains would be hard to find. Use Mitoma for the example - we like him but he hasnt done it long enough at a high enough level of competition for that interest to reach the level of confidence that he could replicate his output in the higher level of the Prem to justify giving a squad place to him. Instead we watch as he goes to Brighton and demonstrates to us that he actually can. But by this time the Prem premium has kicked in and he’s now probably too expensive to justify moving for.
Yet we’ve still managed it. Whether its good relationships allowing us the inside track on someone with an attractive clause like Mac, or being ready when someone else finds themselves being pressured to sell like Porto and Diaz. What it looks from the outside is another example of how the data and the models dont count for much without smart people doing smart planning on how to apply those approaches.