The Unreliable LFC Transfer Rumours Discussion Thread (Part 3)

I sincerely hope Arse get rid of them tomorrow the arrogant twats

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They are an arrogant bunch of cunts fronted by a bitter cunt with a frankly odd eyebrow and a President who probably should face financial charges.

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That’s the first time I’ve read something against Carlo.

Thought he was universally loved or at least likeable.

:joy:

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Bitter Evertonian cunt who seems to have a perchance for injuring our lads.

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Latest link

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Looks like Francis Jeffers.

:joy:

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He’s been linked a couple of times in the past. Quality player.

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The problem with this logic is that while hindsight might suggest Liverpool should have got Kerkez for £19m when Bournemouth got him, Liverpool aren’t Bournemouth and (with the greatest respect to Bournemouth) can’t afford to write off a few dodgy results waiting to see if a player like Kerkez can come good.

It’s important to note that when a team like Brighton or Bournemouth hit one out of the park on a player like a Caicedo, for all the calls that the ‘big clubs’ should have signed him for £10m, they are not taking into account the net casting that goes on to get a big one - the players in a similar bracket that don’t make it.

Again, Liverpool cannot go and sign a clutch of unheard of players in the £10m bracket in the hope one of them turns into Caicedo. We just don’t have the wriggle room in our results to approach transfers like that.

Every player on that list will be known to Liverpool, and Liverpool will have extensive data on them all and will have had for years. The only thing Liverpool don’t know is can they adapt to the Premier League and be comfortable at this level.

Liverpool have demonstrated time and time again, that they would rather spend £40m on Kerkez the sure thing after a year of PL success, that £19m on Kerkez the gamble with no PL experience. It’s a smarter way to spend money.

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I know I posted their transfer activity a while ago (Brighton’s) but yeah they spent something like £150m on 30 or 40 players in a couple of seasons on players in the £5m-£15m range and from that batch they ended up with a couple of diamonds.

But taken as a whole their “success” rate was low.

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I was surprised to read a day or two ago that their squad is the second biggest, with only Chelsea’s bigger.

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Too much fish and chips.

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I think what Brighton figure is that one good transfer more than makes up for the 5 odd average ones.

It’s not like they’ll be really losing too much money on the transfers which don’t work out as well. They’ve got loan fees , transfer fees etc etc to recoup that.

It’s in essence the BVB model.

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Don’t go knocking fish and chips.

I quite like how Brighton is going about it. It’s just that it is too much risk for a bigger club like ours.

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Of the others, have they managed to turn a profit?

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Problem is a couple of poor games and they will be trashed.

Sadly some of our fans even on here have become a bit fickle.

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When Brighton buys a player, they are not looking at a career longevity, they just need to produce a rough diamond that will glisten for a season or two… then sell sell sell…
Whether these players can then go on and have a good career, is down to the buying club that splash the millions

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Not individually from what I remember.

The point anyway isn’t that what Brighton do is wrong, it works for them, it’s just that we can’t always look at their successes and say “We should have bought x before he went to Brighton/Bournemouth etc”. Those clubs don’t have the pressures we do, they have the space to let a player come in and potentially fail. They strike gold once out of ten and that pays for their next investment.

Basically we are the top of the food chain and these clubs are a necessary step for a lot of players. We end up paying more but we have a higher chance of success when we sign them.

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It’s certainly worked for us in recent times. Our two sweet spots seem to be either that under 18 market where the relative cost is extremely low where the reward could be huge but the risk is almost. You might get a decent player like Gomez or Elliott, a player you can ship on for huge profit like van den Berg or if they vanish for nothing you’ve lost no more than a few million.

The £30m to £40m plus market does bring a greater degree of certainty and seemingly better results. Think that’s linked to the body of work we look for before we move. A Kerkez just doesn’t have that when he moves to Bournemouth so we’d rather pay £20m more and feel more confident than risk £20m initially.

I do think we might need to have a think about how we could find a way to build that confidence in players who sit between those sweet spots. I’m sure Ian Graham’s book mentioned Mitoma as an example. He was on our radar based purely on the data but the level he was playing at meant he didn’t match our threshold even with the relatively modest price.

It’s a tricky one as the likes of the Dutch or Portuguese league tend to give young players more game time so they get that threshold of games younger but not in as competitive a league and so our confidence in performances translating is diminished.

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I think one important thing to remember is that we as fans of Liverpool only notice the successful transfers of other teams. We don’t tend to notice the failures. This influences our perception of the hit rates.

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Well, aside from United, which appears to be an endless source of amusement.

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