Yeah, you should try being Nate Silver. Not only does he have to suffer that the bulk of the mainstream completely misunderstand what he does for a living and therefore present the information in an completely unhelpful way, he then also gets challenged on it repeatedly by people who dont know what they’re talking about, and he’s too much of a nerd to walk away from the fight. Nate Twitter is odd place.
Also, while the race isnt decided by popular vote, it is valuable data. The Republican lean at present gives them a handicap of about 3% points, which means any lead Biden has in the popular vote over 3% points starts moving that towards assumptions of an EC win.
One of the most interesting (for nerds) debates the 538 crew had after 2016 was whether they keep their % chance way of reporting their model due to the massive amount of misunderstanding and misinterpretation it had. For instance, even when it gave Trump only a 30% chance of winning in 2016, they spent a considerable amount of time reacting to the reactions by trying to clarify that 30% is not a trivial chance. If you had a 30% chance of winning a million dollars, you wouldnt throw away your lottery ticket assuming it was a done deal, yet that was how people, incorrectly, viewed their model. Essentially, Trump had a better chance of winning than the average NFL team has of winning an away game in the regular season.
In the end they came down on the idea that Americans have numerical illiteracy and no approach was immune from misinterpretation so they’ve stuck with it
When Donald Trump confirmed he was still taking a strong steroid for his coronavirus infection, he also claimed he wasn’t contagious and feels well enough to attend rallies.
The president’s doctors have not said he is no longer contagious and the White House has refused to answer questions that would show how long he has been positive.
“I’m back because I’m a perfect physical specimen,” Trump told Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo.
in particular because I am aware of at least one pension fund manager that has received authorization to get out of US T-bills in the near term (they actually have had it for over a month) notwithstanding the stated percentages in their regulatory disclosures.
I’ve had this discussion with a few conservatively minded friends of mine recently for whom even they hate the conservative presentation of the trickle down economics and know it to be bullshit. They all believe it is just an act and these guys are comfortable bold face lying. I have become increasingly convinced over the past ten years or so though that these guys live so far inside the bubble of think tanks, strategists and fox news and have done so for so long, that they actually have internalized the lie to the point they believe it. Likewise with things like voter suppression. Are they so inured to the awfulness of their endgame, that they no longer realise they are not supposed to say it out loud?
Stunning indeed, although it has to be said that no-one should be under the illusion that the USA are a full democracy or have ever been one. They are a Constitutional republic.
The question is probably: should the USA (or any other society) aspire to a more accomplished form of democracy? This senator obviously thinks that they shouldn’t. At least, it’s honest… It has become quite annoying to hear obvious gravediggers of any kind of social cohesiveness fill their dirty mouths with the words democracy, freedom etc. Bush jr. and Trump are obvious cases, but there are many others who have used and still use these words all the time in public, while heading towards the exact contrary through their decisions and actions.
That is a misdirection. The fact it a representational form of government isn’t the thing that challenges the democratic process in this country, or what Lee is talking about. He isnt saying that he has the authority to not listen to his constituents because this not an Athenian Democracy in which the people directly vote on issues. He is arguing that limiting the vote is in the country’s interests if that means that people who know better get to keep making the decisions. This, from day 1, has been the issue with American Democracy…the powerful deciding whose voice gets to be heard. There has been a slow, gradual and non-linear march towards greater inclusion in the 200+ years since the founding. However, the Republican party since Nixon has rejected this idea not as an ideology but as a political strategy (acknowledgement of the only way they can win) and used no end of approaches to limit the opportunities to vote for people they dont want to vote. The pernicious effect of this is that most Americans believe in their democracy and so refuse to accept that the voter suppression is real or acknowledge its effects unless it happens to them, and those who experience it dont have a voice to be taken seriously. In the last few years though we have seen these sorts of slips where they start revealing that it might actually be their ideology…that the people shouldn’t get a say and the decisions should be made only by the wisened elite.
There is a certain credit some will give for dropping the pretense and being honest in their attitude towards who gets a say in what government does, as arguing on one side of your face for “democracy” while actively trying to prevent certain demos from voting is disgusting. But I think this more honest approach is more scary, less “American” and once people get shaken clearly enough to realize what they’re saying will be rejected far more forcefully.
The level of trade friction between the US and Canada is really at an all-time high, in the modern era at least. Even settled matters have been re-opened in the past 3 years. The new NAFTA is essentially useless, Trump slapped tariffs for ‘national security’ reasons on various products within weeks of agreeing to it.
That said, Biden will likely be fairly protectionist, Obama was certainly not really a friend to Canada either. He was just more charismatic about it, and importantly, could be negotiated with in good faith.
I think that’s the key… negotiating in good faith. Progress can always be made on that basis. Trump is another sort though. The latest one, with the Covid stimulus, Mnuchin and Pelosi negotiating for weeks on end, getting closer, then Trump unilaterally says all bets are off until after the election, while millions are in need of assistance right away. You can’t really work with a guy like that.
Edit
And then apparently does a u-turn and says we will do a deal after all. The fella is something else. It’s imperative he is voted out so at least some sort of normalcy can return.
I don’t think Biden is all that, and the normal situation previously enjoyed must be improved, but from where things are right now… normal represents massive improvement.
Lots of whispers coming out of DC in the last 12 hours or so about the 25th amendment, so maybe the recovery isnt going that well. Maybe a good time to dig out the film the Death of Stalin
