That is why I alluded to the 1968 one - McCarthy only entered in December 1967. However, the primary cycle is now usually much earlier (NH was in March then, likely in the last 2 weeks of January in 2024), and relatively speaking a spoiler candidate like McCarthy would have to be entering in the next couple of weeks. No sign of that, and as you say the two other options are not really options at all.
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Trump going ahead in the opinion polls, with Biden sinking without trace…
The only saving grace is that Trump, just like Biden, is an old man who starts to look his age. He hasn’t that much longer to live. But imagine if he was still 45 or so… 
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We’d be foolish to ignore those polls, but I think its worth digging into them to try to understand what they are are really saying. There is a large section of the country so disconnected that they dont realize how likely it is that we are getting a Biden vs Trump rematch. I think while there are many headwinds blowing against Biden, much of his lack of support in these polls are from people who just think we should have different options. Once those options lock in I think we’ll be back to a very similar place we were last time.
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I really hope you’re right about that!
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Putin will be rubbing his hands with glee
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I think the one thing that those polls are telling us is that no matter what his achievements are , nor how okayish the economy is , and regardless of the fact that it will most likely be Trump who he’s going to face , people simply think he’s too old now and already on the decline , and that he’s simply not going to be up to it for much longer , never mind another five years.
Those polls are a consequence of a relentless hammering on that theme by the Republicans and it’s fertile ground. Any gaffe he makes from now on , or any unfortunate slip ,is going to be magnified to the nth degree and held up as proof that he’s (physically) unfit for the office.
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Not sure it’s really an age thing though. The Gaza situation won’t be helping but a key factor appears to be that there is a disconnect with how well the economy has relatively speaking held up and how people actually view it (they blame the negatives such as higher interest rates on the government but put positives such as having a good job or higher wages down to their own efforts).
I suspect the Biden administration has made a mess of this. US growth is good now, but it is seen by most economists as a ‘sugar rush’ effect, with the Fed having moved too slowly and not hard enough to rein in inflation. Projected growth for the US next year is weaker, where for many G8 trading partners it is expected to be stronger than this year. Americans could be going to the polls rather dissatisfied with the state of their economy, having undervalued 2023 performance.
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Almost forgotten now is how he promised when he ran against Trump in 2020 that he would be a one term president and would then hand over the reins to someone younger. That commitment was necessary at the time because people were already concerned back then about his age , and it was a crucial move for him to be able to to win over Bernie Sanders supporters. His support now amongst those types , i.e. the young and the progressives is in absolute freefall.
As loathe as I am to even countenance the possibility that Trump , after everything , could win again , I’m pretty sure that many Democrats now see it as a real possibility , and are going to be exerting as much pressure as they can muster to get him to step aside.
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If aged Biden does face aged Trump, depending upon their mindset… it is not a 5year term they are hoping stretch across… they may be thinking, all they have to do is ‘shuffle’ across the winners tape first, and then say ‘sod-it’… and hand the reins behind the scenes, to someone else, while remaining on the Presidential throne, with all the power, not responsibility, that this entails.
They may not give a shit at that point about what’s happening in the USA, or the rest of the world… Their innings is drawing to a close
I like Biden, but the Dems have been foolish to not have had a VP who was being prepared to take on the big job from 2024.
Clearly that wasn’t Kamala, but they should have found somebody younger than Biden but people would vote for.
I can see Trump beating Biden next time round, unless he’s in jail by then. Even then he’ll be close.
He needs to be in jail by then or at least prevented from running.
I honestly shudder to think the direction the world will go if he gets back into office.
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Even if he is in jail he can still run and be elected i believe
Local politics here and I just voted for the Mayor and the City Council. I voted for the Democrat Mayor option as the Republican candidate would not denounce Moms for Liberty in a debate with him, and she seemed like a book burning authoritarian type disguised as a fiscally responsible gentler sort.
I voted for two Democrat councilors too, and I spoke with both of them when they were campaigning. One of them is English, clever as you like, Oxford graduate and speaks five languages. Unfortunately she is a Man Utd fan, but I told her I would let that slide, as this country needs some sane people in politics.
Things usually go Republican in these parts, but you never know. As my late mum used to say when she bought a EuroMillions ticket, “You’ve got to be in it to win it.”
Civic duty fulfilled here. It will be way more intense at the polls next November when the Presidency is up for grabs.
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Anyone doubting the existence of the power of the fascist jewish lobby in the USA:
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They say a picture can say a thousand words… Particularly like this one :0)
Michael Cohen: Trump mastered the art of the dodge to avoid accountability — until now
Story by Sarah K. Burris
Donald Trump’s art of the dodge failed him in the New York City courtroom where the future of his eponymous empire hangs in the balance because, as his former attorney Michael Cohen told Raw Story Tuesday, it revealed his Achilles heel.
“It only took them four hours to get him to crack,” said Cohen. “Because he has no stamina.”
Cohen spoke to Raw Story just one day after a “disaster” day for Trump on the witness stand and one day before his daughter Ivanka is slated to give potentially damaging evidence.
While Trump’s attorneys have accused Cohen of lying both in and outside the courtroom, the lawyer — who testified on the witness stand that he helped Trump falsify documents artificially inflating Trump’s assets — turned the accusation on them.
“It’s all about deception — more than just deception,” Cohen said. “It’s almost devious.”
Trump, who has denied the wrongdoing alleged in the $250 million lawsuit, claims that he [never explicitly said to change the documents to defraud banks or insurance companies. But Cohen argues Trump never says anything directly.
“With Trump, nothing is ever explicit,” Cohen told Raw Story.
On the stand, Cohen testified he worked on statements of financial condition, complete listings of Trump Organization assets and liabilities.
Attorney General Letitia James contends the Trump family purposefully inflated the company’s worth in such documents and ultimately defrauded investors and lenders.
Cohen reportedly told the court the financial statements would be used to demonstrate how much the Trump Organization was worth and would be shared outside the company.
To Raw Story, Cohen said Trump signed off on those documents.
In Trump’s fraud case, the question will be whether Judge Arthur Engoron believes Trump’s contention that lower-level staffers took the initiative to inflate his net worth.
“Not only is it not believable,” Cohen said of Trump’s defense, “it’s ludicrous.”
Cohen is not the only person to criticize Trump’s performance on the witness stand Monday.
Judge Arthur Engoron repeatedly admonished the twice-impeached ex-president to answer prosecutors’ questions and stop giving “irrelevant” testimony more suited to a campaign rally than a courtroom.
And legal experts say Trump made a “critical” admission when he agreed on the witness stand that a Deutsche Bank term loan agreement he verified and signed was issued “in order to induce lending”
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Anyone who followed the proceedings on Monday will have been exasperated at just how he’s able to get away with the things he says and does. Early on in his testimony the judge actually threatened to yank him from the witness stand. Luckily he resisted (it was suggested that that was the actual aim of Trump’s defence lawyers so it would give them something else to go at on appeal) and just let the prick hang himself with his own words instead.
Well that was a civil trial and if he thinks he can repeat that performance in a criminal federal trial then he’s in for a big surprise ;
Did he do that at the time? Why doesn’t he hold word then? Any idea?
I think I’m in the wrong thread, apologies, but the candidates I voted for all lost. Not surprising for where I live, but there was a decent showing and the Dems made it close.
I think he gives the reason as being that the first time he ran was to save the US from Trump , and since Trump announced his candidacy again then he is obliged to do so once more.
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