Oh, look at that. Researchers have confirmed that the new strain is between 40% and 70% more infectious.
BBC:
New Year’s treat 
Welcome 2021 
Tbf, this is precisely the estimate given by the initial researchers several weeks ago that Johnson was then lambasted for repeating. 
So Johnson is a better scientist than those at Imperial?
Did he jump the gun a little?
No. The figure he gave was itself given to him by the world class scientists that were the first to identify and look at the new strain.
The same questions are still there, still not clear which way the causal arrow is pointing. Exclude the Kent data alone, and the effect on R is rather smaller. It doesn’t seem to be expanding nearly as aggressively elsewhere yet, or it has not been detected to the levels needed to drive that conclusion.
Similarly, they are still trying to unpack what is going on with the increased rate with which it appears to infect under 20s. The fact that it was spreading while lockdowns were in force but schools were open throws a strong bias into the data.
edit: Looking at the regional breakdown, it is hard to get away from the inference that Kent is just earlier in the curve. Paper is here
To be honest I was being a little niggly. It irks me that they constantly need something major to trigger any action.
We’re in the same position again. Cases continue to rise and yet they’re still pushing kids back to school, even with a more infectious strain in circulation.
Having just looked at the IC piece, that is absolute madness. The authors don’t take a hard position on the question of whether or not the ‘UK variant’ is able to infect under 20’s more readily, rather than under 20’s making up a higher percentage of exposure opportunities due to the lockdown. But the one thing that is absolutely clear is that under 20’s are getting it in abundance.
While I haven’t looked into things at the same depth as yourself, when I see numbers higher than ever before, hospitals starting to struggle, a new variant that is easier to transmit then my simple logic says they are again pushing their luck.
Yes, the situation now is worse than it was in March by almost any measure. I note the Government swerved on schools, which is the only sane choice.
My kids here have not been in school since the second week of March, but schools were slated to open next week - that has now been postponed for at least a week, though it is obvious the situation will be worse not better in a week. The assertion that schools can open safely is basically ideological, not empirical.
Not sure whether this was discussed recently, but I saw that Scotland is increasingly heading towards Independence. Now considering they only had a referendum 6 years ago, are there any legal restrictions for them to call for another one and if they do, will it be recognized by the rest of UK?
They will need approval from Westminster to hold one, so that’s quite a considerable hurdle at this stage.
Isn’t that merely a matter of whether or not a referendum is binding or not? Were Scotland to deliver a strong majority in an advisory referendum, it is hard to see a process that would ever walk that back.
Yes, but for it to carry legal force requiring it to be recognised by the UK it will need the approval of Westminster.
I’m not sure what the rules are on whether the Scottish Parliament could just arrange an advisory referendum unilaterally. I’ve got a feeling that there was an agreement about the time that would need to elapse from the last one.
I think a Scottish independence would bring about a strong consideration for an united Ireland too. And I think Westminster would want to avoid that. But whether they could is another matter.
I personally think a united Ireland will happen before an independent Scotland.
And we would all welcome a united Ireland to the Union.
You mean the European Union?
