UK Politics Thread (Part 2)

What is the process for getting such tax cuts approved? Simple majority in Commons?

Yes.

1 Like

Should get through despite john redwood appearing to be the only one happy with it :see_no_evil:

1 Like
1 Like

Thatā€™s actually a pretty decent article, and in particular I agree about the inflation comments - very little can be done about that massive services to goods shift, and very little can be done about that non-market contraction in energy supply. Certainly nothing on the monetary policy side.

However, the debt issue for the UK is already showing signs of being problematic. The pressure on Sterling is a telltale, and the next gilt auction is going to be critical.

2 Likes

Would that be the same Liz Truss who, during a hustings meeting in Exeter, vowed to crack down on solar farms, stating that ā€œour fields shouldnā€™t be full of solar panelsā€?

:thinking:

U-turn Truss strikes again.

2 Likes

You would have to ask yourself who would be buying Sterling who did not already have significant holdings. But any feel-good was completely overwhelmed by Trussā€™ roadshow (telling the world how it should be done, sounding like a buffoon), followed up by a policy announcement that it is at best characterized as extremely risky, at worst, and I quote someone senior at the Bank of Canada, ā€˜fucking insanityā€™.

Confidence in the UK government, and therefore Sterling, is in absolute free fall. Which makes the sabre-rattling about going after the Bank of England that much more damaging.

2 Likes

I think Iā€™ve missed this. What?!

A couple of examples:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-22/liz-truss-shouldn-t-mess-with-the-bank-of-england-s-independence?leadSource=uverify%20wall

She has since backed away to some degree, Kwarteng has made reassuring noises, but the market has been edgy all along. Threatening to tamper with the institutional framework while making a massive fiscal gamble just tells the market she may want to change who loses if/when she gets it wrong. I can tell you it wonā€™t be the pension fund I used to adviseā€¦

1 Like

OK, thanks. Sheā€™d be well advised to stay away from meddling with the BofE. Best thing Brown ever did was give it greater autonomy. Even when it was run by a Canadian. :wink: Notwithstanding his big gob.

2 Likes

So far, he seems to have got it about rightā€¦that Brexit dividend looks like it will be a while before it outweighs the market dislocation effect.

But yes, I agree - the steadiness of the BoE is doubly critical when you have a government following such a heterodox economic course.

2 Likes

I think said friend is about 10 years late with that observation

Iā€™m also interested in the comment about mortgages getting more expensive. I assume that is referring to mortgages on a floating rate? Is that the common way mortgages are financed in the UK? If so, why? They are technically available here, but not standard and have become much less popular given their role in the mortgage related financial crisis of 08 (people buying more house than they could afford on the reset rate assuming theyā€™d be able to flip the house for significant profit before it reset and then getting stuck in a collapsing market so were forced into foreclosure).

1 Like

Variable rate mortgages historically have a much better performance, in terms of value to the debtor. The premium paid to fix the rate has not been worth it over the time frames that the fixed rate is available (5 years in most markets). That has been the case since the 1970s, once the financial industry realized what a massive error it was to offer 25 year terms. Since the early 1980s, there has been no 5-year period where the movement in (Canadian) interest rates has been fast enough to make the 75+ basis points you need to pay financially worthwhile, so they have made sense only for significantly risk-adverse consumers.

Until now.

Last Fall I advised my brother to take a fixed rate renewal, simply on the basis of how low it still was, versus the seeming inevitability of an increase. The rough calculation was that if it moved by those 75 basis points within the first two years, he would be no worse off. It has moved 300 (3%) since then, and in fact was raised 75 basis points this month alone.

I would be surprised if the numbers were very different for either the UK or the US.

4 Likes

Mortgages here are usually available on floating or fixed terms. Fixed terms are usually for 2 or 5 years and then go onto floating rates for remainder of term of mortgage, leading to people getting another fixed deal.

I got a 10 year fixed in 2018 but they are hard to find now due to speed of rate rises i guess.

Some new companies are begining to offer 30+ year fixed deals but they are not mainstream lenders and iā€™m not sure of their terms.

I think it probably reflects my attitude as an investor, but for a long term commitment I would rather pay more now for something I know I can reliably afford, than pay less for something I may be committed to paying more for later than I cannot afford then.

I think this idea was partially cemented though by me buying my house at a time of historically low rates, and still several years later being able to refinance for even cheaper. 30 years at 3.4% - as you suggest, the ā€œpremiumā€ paid for stability isnt much of a premium if the rate is still historically low.

I do also know maybe 30 people who were forced into foreclosure in 07-08 because of an inability to make their make their payments once the initial rate reset, but I think maybe the calculation was different then because people using the lower introductory rates as a reason to buy more house than they could really afford.

2 Likes

The US financial industry used a lot of ā€˜gimmickyā€™ financial instruments, like 0% or close introductory rates for the first 1-2 years. No idea about the UK, but those are close to illegal here (legally permissible, but not eligible for mortgage insurance). That is very different from a simple variable rate mortgage. Florida was one of the truly awful markets for that.

1 Like

3-1s were the common ones. The first 3 years at an introductory lower rate and then reset annually for the remaining life of the loan. Technically there was a limit on the amount it could increase every year, but that didnā€™t account for the massive adjustment automatically built in at the beginning of the 4th year. I know people whose payments more or less doubled at that point, having misunderstood the terms (being sold incorrect terms and not having the wherewithal to understand the reality behind that sales pitch) thinking the $150 cap a month increase applied to that initial rate reset.

They were products far more geared to squeezing as much as you can out of a hit housing market than a legitimate way to finance a long term investmentā€¦and pushed by people who were only paid out on closing the loan and suffered no direct consequence from the loan defaulting.

1 Like

In the U.S. the 30 year fixed remains the standard. Bundled and sold into the market like bonds. I took a variable in 2006 when rates were around 6%. What a deal that turned out to be. It was tied to 1 year libor which went practically to zero after the 08 crash. I paid less than 3% average through the teens and then refied it 20 months ago to 2.9% for 30 years. Mostly luck.

Variables will be a very good deal again at the top of this inflation cycle, but I think banks have switched from libor to prime because libor hammered them.

1 Like