UK Politics Thread (Part 3)

Starmer’s crap.

But he’s still infinitely better than the Tories.

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Incredibly disingenuous.

No-one is saying that.

Despite his bizarrely triumphalist tone, @Klopptimist has a point. It’s looking like a really good night for Labour but not a great one.

If the results tonight were translated to a GE Labour could possibly take power, but they would need big gains in Scotland to do so. An eight percent swing (would not be enough to feel confident. Labour really need to be looking at a twelve point swing to be confident of a decent majority at the election.

There are lots of reasons to celebrate then, but also few issues to think about. Mainly, is the cautious ‘we’re not the Tories’ pragmatism strategy working? You’d expect a government this inept, scandalised and unpopular to take a kicking at a local election. It hard to judge how much of the results are a proactive vote for Labour.

The other thing to reflect on is for Keir Starmer himself. Labour have a good lead over the Tories, but Keir Starmer doesn’t command a huge lead over Sunak. I think he needs to start expressing a vision for what his government would be on it own terms, not just how it wouldn’t be the Tories.

The final point is that Labour may be relying on the Lib Dem’s taking seats off the Tories in the south. I’m not sure about how sensible a strategy that is.

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From the guardian just now, in response to the idea that the Tories are pushing the we we told we’d lose a thousand seats line.

In fact, there was only one prominent independent projection suggesting the Tories would lose 1,000 seats. It was an estimate from the academics Prof Colin Rallings and Prof Michael Thrasher, published in the Local Government Chronicle in March, based on what polling at the time suggested.

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No it doesn’t. Lib Dem’s are gaining in areas where they have been the main opposition for years.

The poles have switched and hell has frozen over, we agree on politics!

Providing we all believe that local elections are in large part a reflection of voting intention in a national election, I think people are catching onto all the backpeddling Starmer is doing on his pledges. I read a Guardian article yesterday and was a little shocked on which pledges he has rowed back on. Personally I am not too fussed with how Labour is doing, so long as the Conservatives are hurting. I will do anything to vote out the Anti-Democracy party. If Lib-Dems are the safer bet in my constituency at the next GE, that’s where my vote will go.

Tbf, this is a good time to have a wake-up call if you are Labour as the wake-up call is at least not in a GE. They can hopefully learn some things from this and get their message back on point.

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It’s worth noting that there are no elections in Scotland, Wales, London, Birmingham or Bristol. What are the key target areas for Labour anyway? I’m assuming that there is no point having a huge swing where they already have a big majority to begin with.

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I read a Guardian article yesterday and was a little shocked on which pledges he has rowed back on. Personally I am not too fussed with how Labour is doing, so long as the Conservatives are hurting. I will do anything to vote out the Anti-Democracy party. If Lib-Dems are the safer bet in my constituency at the next GE, that’s where my vote will go.

Who are you and what have you done with klopptimist :grimacing:

Nothing unusual about those election results given it is mid term though…happens every time…and I bet the turn out was really low as it usually is for council elections.

Just checked and my ward had a 29% turnout which actually was slightly higher than the last time.

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That wasn’t Klopptimist? That was @JU97ICE

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On a side note, am I the only one enjoying the progress of the Greens in this? Seems like they made headways in quite a few places…

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I think I read key targets where Medway (which they have now taken from the conservatives who had held control of the council for the last 20 years) and a number of areas within the ‘Redwall’.

I doubt this is a big factor. I think those not voting for Labour in these council elections would have been unlikely to do so anyway.

They have done well in Birkenhead in recent years. Like most third parties under FPTP, it’s difficult to build up that kind of momentum.

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This is what has always troubled me. Labour needs a bigger swing under Starmer than the one Blair achieved in '97. For the life of me , I just can’t see that happening.

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From the BBC:

Jamie in Coventry choose not to vote, citing a lack of campaigning and the introduction of voter ID as his reasons.

“There was no visible campaigning,” he says. “No knocking on doors, no leaflets, no pamphlets. I didn’t know what I was voting for, so why would I go vote?”

Try paying attention to local politics you absolute cheese sandwich.

Talking heads on the BBC are about as indicative as opinion polls in the S*n.

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Phew sorry speed reading , apologies thought the world had turned upside down for a moment :rofl:

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local elections are a different beast to national ones so people shouldn’t read across them so strongly, particularly because their turn outs tend to be lower and people more willing to vote for fringe parties.

The last poll published just before the local elections showed Labour’s lead increasing to I think 17 points ?

I think what is interesting is the change in narrative. When Labour lost the last General Election the prevailing view was that the Conservatives would win the next one with perhaps a smaller number of seats and Labour not having a realistic chance of winning.